Learning from UT Game: Things to look for at Boone

[ghost2]

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough

This righ'chear ^^^

 

[DTP]

It's very surprising that no one has mentioned that App. State starts a true freshman at CB. That Tennessee game was close because Dobbs is a terrible passer. Look for Kaaya to have a bounce back game with 4 tds and over 300 yards passing. Miami will roll

He hasn't thrown for 400 TD's or 4 TD's through two games against FAMU and FAU. Duck is actually a better prospect than the senior starting opposite of him. I expect you guys may run for 6 yards a clip most of the game purely due to the defense playing soft coverage to keep the receiver in front of them, much like the ODU game. The plan against Tennessee was to force Dobb's to throw and stop the run. Against Miami it will likely be a little more balanced and situation specific.

Kaaya had 4 touchdown passes in a little over a half of football against FAMU.

 

[mossmadness]

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

lolllll. Over a 100 posts in one week and you just double down on the dumb with each post. That deserves an upvote!

 

[section9]

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

lolllll. Over a 100 posts in one week and you just double down on the dumb with each post. That deserves an upvote!

That said, I'd still rather play Ma & Pa Kettle State than FAMU. Playing FAMU is an embarrassment.

Besides, I'd love to see the App State Fans have to come to the Blue Lot every two years.

Perhaps they could take Laz and Caneshades back with them?

 

[Cane Dynasty]

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

lolllll. Over a 100 posts in one week and you just double down on the dumb with each post. That deserves an upvote!

In 5 years when they finally come to the real Rock I'll bet that they still haven't ever been ranked

 

[theibisrules]

Great write up Lu

X's 2

 

[section9]

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

lolllll. Over a 100 posts in one week and you just double down on the dumb with each post. That deserves an upvote!

In 5 years when they finally come to the real Rock I'll bet that they still haven't ever been ranked

They'll get lucky and beat Penn State or, better yet, ambush Notre Dame or Oklahoma. That will get them ranked.

We need to start sprucing up the Blue Lot so it's ready for them in five years time. Who wants to set up the still?

 

[CaneOil]

- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Lamb's completion percentage is actually higher than Kaaya's and both have scored 2 TD's. Difference: Miami is ranked where app store will never be.

Well fk me, even a hillbilly can be right once in a while

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

In other words, Vegas is also gambling on this game being an App win as they will keep all of that money flowing to Miami and they wouldn't do that without having a good reason to believe App State will win. Otherwise, they are just throwing their own money away by not moving the line to balance out betting to ensure they at least break even.

In a nutshell: the sports analyst who set the lines in Vegas are hedging on an App State cover of the spread, with the line this close, they are calling for an App State win.

SUCK IT!

lol on this whole post. So you think all the Casino's are keeping it at 3.5 because they think AP is going to win? You believe some internet site that says 80% of the money is going towards Miami? Sorry, it doesn't work that way, lol. I've seen lines move in smaller Casino's when someone put's 5 or 10k on a game. Not sure where you got your information but it's wrong.

 

[Cans4life]

Miami by 21+.

 

[DTP]

I'll save the long quote but Cane Oil is right about casino betting lines. The worst thing that can happen for a sports book is for all the money to be on one side of a bet. The whole purpose of a sliding betting line is to try to keep the bets as close to 50/50 as possible. The point spread has nothing to do with who they think is going to win, it's all about getting as many people on both sides of the line as possible. If 80% of the money was actually going on Miami, the line would be well into double digits.

 

[The Franchise]

This is the type of game that Golden and even Shannon would lose (pitt, duke, kansas state vriginia USF boston college etc.). to me this is as important as any other game, because it will gauge whether the coaching will elevate the talent to overcome the adversity (little or none) they are likely to face at some point. i think this is what richt alluded to when he said we have not been "hit in the gut yet" (or something similar).

my opinion is that the coaching will elevate the talent and not neuter it as in years past.

Lu, thanks for the specific match ups/things to watch.

This game is hugely important for one simple reason: UM loses, and all the goodwill and momentum that has been building will go right out the window because everyone will just assume it's more of the same old ****. You can't lose to a nothing FCS team full of 2 stars like this and expect to keep any momentum with UM fans.

UM fans are in a fragile state with this program. Lose, and Hard Rok will be dead again. We'll lose all the traction we've been building, and all the excitement will dissipate like a fart in a hurricane.

 

[RiDLer80]

We win by at least 3 scores.

34-10

 

[CaneOil]

This is the type of game that Golden and even Shannon would lose (pitt, duke, kansas state vriginia USF boston college etc.). to me this is as important as any other game, because it will gauge whether the coaching will elevate the talent to overcome the adversity (little or none) they are likely to face at some point. i think this is what richt alluded to when he said we have not been "hit in the gut yet" (or something similar).

my opinion is that the coaching will elevate the talent and not neuter it as in years past.

Lu, thanks for the specific match ups/things to watch.

This game is hugely important for one simple reason: UM loses, and all the goodwill and momentum that has been building will go right out the window because everyone will just assume it's more of the same old ****. You can't lose to a nothing FCS team full of 2 stars like this and expect to keep any momentum with UM fans.

UM fans are in a fragile state with this program. Lose, and Hard Rok will be dead again. We'll lose all the traction we've been building, and all the excitement will dissipate like a fart in a hurricane.

It's also important because I'll probably lose my 3.5k in winning the over 6.5 games this year. lol.

 

[RepTheGables]

Great stuff! I'll be thinking about this stuff while watching the game.

 

[The Franchise]

This is the type of game that Golden and even Shannon would lose (pitt, duke, kansas state vriginia USF boston college etc.). to me this is as important as any other game, because it will gauge whether the coaching will elevate the talent to overcome the adversity (little or none) they are likely to face at some point. i think this is what richt alluded to when he said we have not been "hit in the gut yet" (or something similar).

my opinion is that the coaching will elevate the talent and not neuter it as in years past.

Lu, thanks for the specific match ups/things to watch.

This game is hugely important for one simple reason: UM loses, and all the goodwill and momentum that has been building will go right out the window because everyone will just assume it's more of the same old ****. You can't lose to a nothing FCS team full of 2 stars like this and expect to keep any momentum with UM fans.

UM fans are in a fragile state with this program. Lose, and Hard Rok will be dead again. We'll lose all the traction we've been building, and all the excitement will dissipate like a fart in a hurricane.

It's also important because I'll probably lose my 3.5k in winning the over 6.5 games this year. lol.

Lose this game, and we'll be lucky to win 6 this year. It'll be a sign of really bad things to come because no matter how much the media idiots try to build up App Store, there's no way around the fact that they don't have a player we tried to sign. This is Tyson v. Michael Spinks from a talent perspective.

 

[Cane Dynasty]

This is the type of game that Golden and even Shannon would lose (pitt, duke, kansas state vriginia USF boston college etc.). to me this is as important as any other game, because it will gauge whether the coaching will elevate the talent to overcome the adversity (little or none) they are likely to face at some point. i think this is what richt alluded to when he said we have not been "hit in the gut yet" (or something similar).

my opinion is that the coaching will elevate the talent and not neuter it as in years past.

Lu, thanks for the specific match ups/things to watch.

This game is hugely important for one simple reason: UM loses, and all the goodwill and momentum that has been building will go right out the window because everyone will just assume it's more of the same old ****. You can't lose to a nothing FCS team full of 2 stars like this and expect to keep any momentum with UM fans.

UM fans are in a fragile state with this program. Lose, and Hard Rok will be dead again. We'll lose all the traction we've been building, and all the excitement will dissipate like a fart in a hurricane.

It's also important because I'll probably lose my 3.5k in winning the over 6.5 games this year. lol.

Lose this game, and we'll be lucky to win 6 this year. It'll be a sign of really bad things to come because no matter how much the media idiots try to build up App Store, there's no way around the fact that they don't have a player we tried to sign. This is Tyson v. Michael Spinks from a talent perspective.

Tyson vs Marvis Frazier

 

[CaneOil]

We win by at least 3 scores.

34-10

I'd have to say that should be the score, we have been brainwashed for the last 10+ years that it won't be. So far I love this D, they didn't play down to their competition as they use too, we really should win big.

 

[George84]

- In App State's lone comparable game (UTenn) this year, they allowed 6 TFLs and no sacks.

What that means for us?

I would be surprised if we don't see another double digit TFL game or near it for our defense. Yes, our two previous opponents were not as good. Yes, App State runs the ball more. But, I think you'll see Diaz use the blitz to stop the run, as he's known to do.

- 2 of those TFLs came from Kendall Vickers, UTenn's DT who was a former 3-star, 225 pound SSDE a few years back. Through 2 games, he's arguably been their most productive DL from a stats perspective.

What that means for us?

I don't believe Vickers is as talented as any of our top 3 DTs. Make of that what you wish. Diaz and Kul can place rotate DTs against their weaker Guard for the entire afternoon. App State does have a pro prospect listed along their OL interior.

- UT's Derek Barnett was more or less neutralized against App St.

What that means for us?

Barnett is a likely top 15 pick in next year's NFL draft. A former 4 star, he's been really productive. He's our Chad Thomas, though his build and position as an Edge rusher are more comparable to D-Jax against App state. Basically, don't expect a ton of sacks on Saturday unless App State goes down huge early, which is not entirely expected - especially if the weather fails to hold up. Their passing game and QB's style doesn't lend itself to sacks.

- UT's leading solo tackler was their FS

What that means for us?

Manny Diaz likes to fit a particular coverage behind his aggressive fronts. Without going into that detail, it places the Safeties in a high pressure situation where, if the other team goes spread, the two safeties are expected to read the inside WR and many times fill the alley. Watch their feet at the snap. Instead of the 2 steps back you often saw last year, our 2 deep Safeties will remain relatively stagnant, pause or even lean forward. It's a significant change in how to play defense. I actually half expect Diaz to go slightly away from this coverage and show some single high safety with Jamal Carter coming straight downhill to fill. Don't be surprised if one of our three leading tacklers is either Carter, Jaquan or Jenkins.

- Two top tacklers for UT were both LBs

What that means for us?

This one is a little more obvious, I think. We're playing a zone option team. Our LBs are going to have to play well and tackle well on both inside and outside zones. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but I think Shaq and Pinkney are made for stopping this type of offense. When the ball snaps, Shaq will already be halfway to blowing up his gap. Wouldn't be surprised if both of these guys end up with double digit tackles for the afternoon.

- App State's QB was 15/23 for 108 total passing yards

What that means for us?

I've discussed this throughout the week. The reason I'm confused by the vegas line and people's concerns is because our primary soft spot as a defense is not an area their QB has shown to accurately hit. What's more, against the type of competition they'll face on Saturday, App State has failed to show the ability to push the ball downfield. Of course, let's consider that Tennessee has two pro prospects at Corner. Luckily for us, I believe we clearly have one and Redwine is young and playing solidly.

- App State was 3/13 on 3rd down conversions vs UTenn

What that means for us?

It goes along with the above about their QB's accuracy. I'll believe it when I see it. First things first: we have to keep them behind schedule and in uncomfortable 3rd down scenarios. If Saturday ends up being a rainy muck, this becomes even more important. You'd think our pass coverage is the most important key for this 3rd down conversion bullet point. I think it's a singular position: DT.

Thinking back to Diaz's scheme and its weak points, one of the biggest pressure points is whether a DT can hold up inside against a double team so that it places less pressure on the MLB getting chipped at the second level, which places less strain on the Safeties being asked to fill. Therefore, Kendrick Norton, please stand up. My personal perspective is you're going to see a hard, hard slanting defense and lots of gap exchange on 1st and 2nd down. Diaz will try to force as many 3rd and 7+ as he feasibly can.

- App State and Tennessee played an incredibly tight game and went into OT

What that means for us?

I grinned ear to ear when I saw this live. App State had to show nearly everything sans whatever handful of wrinkles they've installed. We should not be completely caught by surprise more than a few times. We know what they'll do offensively. They have to now beat us in individual matchups and I don't believe they can do that consistently enough.

Lamb's completion percentage is actually higher than Kaaya's and both have scored 2 TD's. Difference: Miami is ranked where app store will never be.

Well fk me, even a hillbilly can be right once in a while

If App wins Saturday they will likely be ranked in the Coaches poll as they are already receiving votes. They would probably move into the receiving votes category in the AP. If App can win into late October and Georgia Southern is undefeated, the team of that game is likely to be ranked after. Given that information: Miami is only a 3.5 point favorite despite around 80% of the money flowing in to Miami.

In other words, Vegas is also gambling on this game being an App win as they will keep all of that money flowing to Miami and they wouldn't do that without having a good reason to believe App State will win. Otherwise, they are just throwing their own money away by not moving the line to balance out betting to ensure they at least break even.

In a nutshell: the sports analyst who set the lines in Vegas are hedging on an App State cover of the spread, with the line this close, they are calling for an App State win.

SUCK IT!

I can tell you don't understand how sports betting works.

Vegas doesn't care who wins. They want 50% of the money on each team or as close to that as possible. They want to make the 5-10% vig, juice, whatever you want to call it. This is why you will bet $110 to win $100 on App State. They have another guy that bets Miami $110 to win $100 on Miami. Doesn't matter who wins the game, Vegas makes $10. Get it??

Vegas doesn't choose sides, lol. They would be broke like every other sports betting junkie if they chose sides.

 

[supacane]

We can shut these guys out. I really believe that. I think everyone is judging us by what happened under previous staff and particularly under Golden. While they used the phrase, we played no one. This is a different team. U can win a bunch of game a by stopping the run and running the ball. We're gonna beat app st and they're gonna say, wait till we play ACC teams. Which is fine.

Sent from my SM-N930T using Tapatalk

 

[CaneOil]

This is the type of game that Golden and even Shannon would lose (pitt, duke, kansas state vriginia USF boston college etc.). to me this is as important as any other game, because it will gauge whether the coaching will elevate the talent to overcome the adversity (little or none) they are likely to face at some point. i think this is what richt alluded to when he said we have not been "hit in the gut yet" (or something similar).

my opinion is that the coaching will elevate the talent and not neuter it as in years past.

Lu, thanks for the specific match ups/things to watch.

This game is hugely important for one simple reason: UM loses, and all the goodwill and momentum that has been building will go right out the window because everyone will just assume it's more of the same old ****. You can't lose to a nothing FCS team full of 2 stars like this and expect to keep any momentum with UM fans.

UM fans are in a fragile state with this program. Lose, and Hard Rok will be dead again. We'll lose all the traction we've been building, and all the excitement will dissipate like a fart in a hurricane.

It's also important because I'll probably lose my 3.5k in winning the over 6.5 games this year. lol.

Lose this game, and we'll be lucky to win 6 this year. It'll be a sign of really bad things to come because no matter how much the media idiots try to build up App Store, there's no way around the fact that they don't have a player we tried to sign. This is Tyson v. Michael Spinks from a talent perspective.

I pretty much agree, this is a must win games for so many reasons. Hard to see them losing this game with the way the D has changed so much.