Kaaya Decision: Money Analysis

[kryptonite]

Right now most have kaaya still as a top 5 qb in the draft. Most have watson, trubisky, and kizer ahead of him. So if that was to hold up he would likely be looking at 2nd round, 3rd round at worst.

And I doubt Kizer leaves as a RS soph with the year he had

He just declared for the draft

Notre Dame Fighting Irish QB DeShone Kizer declaring for draft

 

[kryptonite]

With all the talk about social media tweets, I thought this was a separate angle to discuss:

What does the decision look like financially?

Some people say Kaaya is expected to go in the top 10. While I completely disagree he's worth this risk to an NFL team, obviously he should go if it's the case. Others think he'll be, at worst, a 2nd rounder. If that's remotely true, he should also go. Others, including me, think he'll be maximum somewhere between a 3rd or early 4th rounder if he were to leave early. Looking at last year's draft, 10 QBs were taken in the top 5 rounds. 6 QBs were taken in the top 3 rounds.

Paxton Lynch, taken in the late 1st (26th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 9.5 million, with a 5 million signing bonus. (~7.8 million guaranteed)
Christian Hackenberg, taken in the 2nd (51st overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 4.6 million, with a 1.6 million signing bonus. (~2.2 million guaranteed)
Cody Kessler, taken in the 3rd (93rd overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 3.4 million, with a 660k signing bonus. (~1.1 million guaranteed)
Connor Cook, taken in the 4th (100th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and just shy of 3 million, with a 619k signing bonus. (619k guaranteed)

With anywhere from 5 to 6 guys currently "projected" above Kaaya at this time (pre-combine, etc.), the question is if Kaaya believes another year at Miami can help him show something different from his current limitations and perception to launch him into, at least, 2nd round money.

If that were the case, he'd hypothetically go from a total contract value of something like 3.9 million with approximately 800k guaranteed to 6.2 million total contract value with 2+ million guaranteed. For those wondering about a potential injury, please take under consideration insurance plans for players in Kaaya's position and vastly shorter timetables for what were career-ending injuries a couple decades ago.

Top 10? 1st round Top 10? Please supply a source or link predicting this status.

It's all over message boards. I answered one post with these exact mentions just yesterday. I've also seen a mock draft within the past couple months with Kaaya as a top 5 pick.

Edit: 2017 NFL Mock Draft: Brad Kaaya Lands in Top 5 | Heavy.com | Page 2

Now, "please" feel free to discuss the substance of the thread.

That's from early October, and I don't think it's at all accurate. Maybe an NFL team will think they can fix his issues, but I can't see them spending 1st round money for that type of project. I like the kid, but as of now you have to assume NFL defenses will eat him up.

 

[LuCane]

With all the talk about social media tweets, I thought this was a separate angle to discuss:

What does the decision look like financially?

Some people say Kaaya is expected to go in the top 10. While I completely disagree he's worth this risk to an NFL team, obviously he should go if it's the case. Others think he'll be, at worst, a 2nd rounder. If that's remotely true, he should also go. Others, including me, think he'll be maximum somewhere between a 3rd or early 4th rounder if he were to leave early. Looking at last year's draft, 10 QBs were taken in the top 5 rounds. 6 QBs were taken in the top 3 rounds.

Paxton Lynch, taken in the late 1st (26th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 9.5 million, with a 5 million signing bonus. (~7.8 million guaranteed)
Christian Hackenberg, taken in the 2nd (51st overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 4.6 million, with a 1.6 million signing bonus. (~2.2 million guaranteed)
Cody Kessler, taken in the 3rd (93rd overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 3.4 million, with a 660k signing bonus. (~1.1 million guaranteed)
Connor Cook, taken in the 4th (100th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and just shy of 3 million, with a 619k signing bonus. (619k guaranteed)

With anywhere from 5 to 6 guys currently "projected" above Kaaya at this time (pre-combine, etc.), the question is if Kaaya believes another year at Miami can help him show something different from his current limitations and perception to launch him into, at least, 2nd round money.

If that were the case, he'd hypothetically go from a total contract value of something like 3.9 million with approximately 800k guaranteed to 6.2 million total contract value with 2+ million guaranteed. For those wondering about a potential injury, please take under consideration insurance plans for players in Kaaya's position and vastly shorter timetables for what were career-ending injuries a couple decades ago.

Top 10? 1st round Top 10? Please supply a source or link predicting this status.

It's all over message boards. I answered one post with these exact mentions just yesterday. I've also seen a mock draft within the past couple months with Kaaya as a top 5 pick.

Edit: 2017 NFL Mock Draft: Brad Kaaya Lands in Top 5 | Heavy.com | Page 2

Now, "please" feel free to discuss the substance of the thread.

That's from early October, and I don't think it's at all accurate. Maybe an NFL team will think they can fix his issues, but I can't see them spending 1st round money for that type of project. I like the kid, but as of now you have to assume NFL defenses will eat him up.

You're confusing what I'm noting as others saying (and I didn't say when) as what I am predicting. Just yesterday, on our very own recruiting board, someone was talking Kaaya up as a Top 10 pick and I addressed it. Earlier this week, I was in a chat where someone linked a December Mock talking about Brad Kaaya going to the Jets at 37 (which would be a truly bizarre pick).

I'm not predicting him as a Top 10 pick. I'm not predicting him as even a Top 2 rounder. I am noting the discussions happening across the internet, the radio and some mocks within the last couple months. I think when all the mocks get updated, he'll likely be closer to where many of us are predicting: 3rd.

I'm beginning to agree with those who say CIS has a significant reading comprehension problem. Because, if you read my original post, I say "some people say..." and "others think..."

 

[kryptonite]

With all the talk about social media tweets, I thought this was a separate angle to discuss:

What does the decision look like financially?

Some people say Kaaya is expected to go in the top 10. While I completely disagree he's worth this risk to an NFL team, obviously he should go if it's the case. Others think he'll be, at worst, a 2nd rounder. If that's remotely true, he should also go. Others, including me, think he'll be maximum somewhere between a 3rd or early 4th rounder if he were to leave early. Looking at last year's draft, 10 QBs were taken in the top 5 rounds. 6 QBs were taken in the top 3 rounds.

Paxton Lynch, taken in the late 1st (26th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 9.5 million, with a 5 million signing bonus. (~7.8 million guaranteed)
Christian Hackenberg, taken in the 2nd (51st overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 4.6 million, with a 1.6 million signing bonus. (~2.2 million guaranteed)
Cody Kessler, taken in the 3rd (93rd overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 3.4 million, with a 660k signing bonus. (~1.1 million guaranteed)
Connor Cook, taken in the 4th (100th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and just shy of 3 million, with a 619k signing bonus. (619k guaranteed)

With anywhere from 5 to 6 guys currently "projected" above Kaaya at this time (pre-combine, etc.), the question is if Kaaya believes another year at Miami can help him show something different from his current limitations and perception to launch him into, at least, 2nd round money.

If that were the case, he'd hypothetically go from a total contract value of something like 3.9 million with approximately 800k guaranteed to 6.2 million total contract value with 2+ million guaranteed. For those wondering about a potential injury, please take under consideration insurance plans for players in Kaaya's position and vastly shorter timetables for what were career-ending injuries a couple decades ago.

Top 10? 1st round Top 10? Please supply a source or link predicting this status.

It's all over message boards. I answered one post with these exact mentions just yesterday. I've also seen a mock draft within the past couple months with Kaaya as a top 5 pick.

Edit: 2017 NFL Mock Draft: Brad Kaaya Lands in Top 5 | Heavy.com | Page 2

Now, "please" feel free to discuss the substance of the thread.

That's from early October, and I don't think it's at all accurate. Maybe an NFL team will think they can fix his issues, but I can't see them spending 1st round money for that type of project. I like the kid, but as of now you have to assume NFL defenses will eat him up.

You're confusing what I'm noting as others saying (and I didn't say when) as what I am predicting. Just yesterday, on our very own recruiting board, someone was talking Kaaya up as a Top 10 pick and I addressed it. Earlier this week, I was in a chat where someone linked a December Mock talking about Brad Kaaya going to the Jets at 37 (which would be a truly bizarre pick).

I'm not predicting him as a Top 10 pick. I'm not predicting him as even a Top 2 rounder. I am noting the discussions happening across the internet, the radio and some mocks within the last couple months. I think when all the mocks get updated, he'll likely be closer to where many of us are predicting: 3rd.

I'm beginning to agree with those who say CIS has a significant reading comprehension problem. Because, if you read my original post, I say "some people say..." and "others think..."

My comment wasn't meant to refer to your beliefs, I was just saying that I don't think that specific draft prediction is accurate.

 

[LuCane]

Top 10? 1st round Top 10? Please supply a source or link predicting this status.

It's all over message boards. I answered one post with these exact mentions just yesterday. I've also seen a mock draft within the past couple months with Kaaya as a top 5 pick.

Edit: 2017 NFL Mock Draft: Brad Kaaya Lands in Top 5 | Heavy.com | Page 2

Now, "please" feel free to discuss the substance of the thread.

That's from early October, and I don't think it's at all accurate. Maybe an NFL team will think they can fix his issues, but I can't see them spending 1st round money for that type of project. I like the kid, but as of now you have to assume NFL defenses will eat him up.

You're confusing what I'm noting as others saying (and I didn't say when) as what I am predicting. Just yesterday, on our very own recruiting board, someone was talking Kaaya up as a Top 10 pick and I addressed it. Earlier this week, I was in a chat where someone linked a December Mock talking about Brad Kaaya going to the Jets at 37 (which would be a truly bizarre pick).

I'm not predicting him as a Top 10 pick. I'm not predicting him as even a Top 2 rounder. I am noting the discussions happening across the internet, the radio and some mocks within the last couple months. I think when all the mocks get updated, he'll likely be closer to where many of us are predicting: 3rd.

I'm beginning to agree with those who say CIS has a significant reading comprehension problem. Because, if you read my original post, I say "some people say..." and "others think..."

My comment wasn't meant to refer to your beliefs, I was just saying that I don't think that specific draft prediction is accurate.

I don't think it is, either. The purpose of mentioning all of those things in the OP was to cover all angles being tossed around.

 

[kryptonite]

It's all over message boards. I answered one post with these exact mentions just yesterday. I've also seen a mock draft within the past couple months with Kaaya as a top 5 pick.

Edit: 2017 NFL Mock Draft: Brad Kaaya Lands in Top 5 | Heavy.com | Page 2

Now, "please" feel free to discuss the substance of the thread.

That's from early October, and I don't think it's at all accurate. Maybe an NFL team will think they can fix his issues, but I can't see them spending 1st round money for that type of project. I like the kid, but as of now you have to assume NFL defenses will eat him up.

You're confusing what I'm noting as others saying (and I didn't say when) as what I am predicting. Just yesterday, on our very own recruiting board, someone was talking Kaaya up as a Top 10 pick and I addressed it. Earlier this week, I was in a chat where someone linked a December Mock talking about Brad Kaaya going to the Jets at 37 (which would be a truly bizarre pick).

I'm not predicting him as a Top 10 pick. I'm not predicting him as even a Top 2 rounder. I am noting the discussions happening across the internet, the radio and some mocks within the last couple months. I think when all the mocks get updated, he'll likely be closer to where many of us are predicting: 3rd.

I'm beginning to agree with those who say CIS has a significant reading comprehension problem. Because, if you read my original post, I say "some people say..." and "others think..."

My comment wasn't meant to refer to your beliefs, I was just saying that I don't think that specific draft prediction is accurate.

I don't think it is, either. The purpose of mentioning all of those things in the OP was to cover all angles being tossed around.

I appreciate you covering all the angles...even the dumb ones.

 

[coca cola]

I think Kaaya is very overrated so I honestly would not be unhappy at all if he left.

 

[KrazyCane]

Rookies arent getting as much money as they use to so the decision to wait an extra year or go pro isnt that hard to make.

Kaaya isn't going to show anything more than what he has already shown besides whatever money he gets would be a **** of a lot more than what he has, or majority of us have, right now.

 

[The Franchise]

Kaaya would be insane to leave. Unless he's a lazy *** who doesn't want to work on the multiple flaws in his game that he can work on, he absolutely has to come back.

They'll eat him alive at workouts. The only thing he has is game film because he's a horrible athlete. And there are huge flaws in his game film.

He should spend from now until next season working on sliding around in the pocket and quickening his footwork in the pocket. It's his only chance to even BE an NFL QB let alone talk about a 2nd contract and all that nonsense.

He reminds me of that kid Walsh from BYU from about 10 years ago. People were talking about him being a first round pick. His game was similar to Kaaya. He left early and didn't get drafted. Never played again.

 

[da truth]

Kaaya would be insane to leave. Unless he's a lazy *** who doesn't want to work on the multiple flaws in his game that he can work on, he absolutely has to come back.

They'll eat him alive at workouts. The only thing he has is game film because he's a horrible athlete. And there are huge flaws in his game film.

He should spend from now until next season working on sliding around in the pocket and quickening his footwork in the pocket. It's his only chance to even BE an NFL QB let alone talk about a 2nd contract and all that nonsense.

He reminds me of that kid Walsh from BYU from about 10 years ago. People were talking about him being a first round pick. His game was similar to Kaaya. He left early and didn't get drafted. Never played again.

Valid points. Nice post Matty p

 

[Canesfan1899]

Again, needs to come back and work on pocket presence and ability to slide in the pocket. We should have a better OL next season and we should be able to show more consistency in year 2.

 

[BigDikCane]

Kaaya might not even be the starter next season. He needs to kick rocks and get some of that nfl money

 

[armstead98]

Great post - Kaaya would be insane to declare for the draft this year. There is no way he's a lock first rounder right now, and getting there is something that's well within his capability if he comes back and plays well. The financial incentive in doing so is obviously massive and the worst case scenario is another year of college and insurance $.

The only thing I'll slightly disagree on with some is that I do think Kaaya would help his stock in the pre-draft period. He's well spoken, smart, and in shorts I'm pretty confident he'd light up workouts with his accuracy the same way he did in the spring practices. There's just a cap on how high he can go right now because he's never won anything and unlike someone like Paxton Lynch or Jay Cutler his arm strength is just average and his athleticism below. If he declared right now I think he'd be a 2nd/3rd/4th round pick in the mold of guys like Hackenberg/Ryan Nassib/Connor Cook/etc. All of those guys played early, had buzz that they'd go higher, and ultimately are going to be career backups if they're lucky.

 

[KrazyCane]

Kaaya would be insane to leave. Unless he's a lazy *** who doesn't want to work on the multiple flaws in his game that he can work on, he absolutely has to come back.

Lol entitled mouth breathers

How would he be lazy for going to the NFL early?? Lol u do know they develop players too right???

 

[Canes4348]

If he leaves do you think they will look at anu Solomon from Arizona as a possible grad transfer? they run a wide open Offense so I don't know how that would translate, but he could be a bandaide till the younger guys mature a little more.

 

[acento]

I honestly don't understand why he would lean towards leaving. When you look at it as objectively as possible, just about everything points to staying. Better chance to make the ACCCG, possibility (if we continue to improve) of something special in 2017, Oline will be improved, CMR improvements at play calling, we'll have a STOUT defense, Walton, Richards, a re-energized fan base, go down as a record breaking 4-year starter for UM. He can only improve his draft stock and $ if stays.

I really hope his handlers are giving him proper insight, because I just can't fathom him thinking the 2016 draft is the pinnacle of where he could end up.

The problem is you're not looking at it as objectively as possible. All of your points are great things if you're a fan of the program, but don't necessarily benefit him as an NFL prospect.

 

[KrazyCane]

You all must think rookies are still getting mega contracts? A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... Why would a 21 yr old give AF that he could possibly make an extra 500k if he waits a year instead of taking 850K cash right now with a 2-4 million dollar deal??

 

[LuCane]

You all must think rookies are still getting mega contracts? A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... Why would a 21 yr old give AF that he could possibly make an extra 500k if he waits a year instead of taking 850K cash right now with a 2-4 million dollar deal??

I'll bite because this is not an actual discussion on Kaaya, but rather a simple math problem. The answer to your question is "because it's not an extra 500k if he waits a year."

If he actually improves to minimum a 2nd rounder, it's likely an additional 3 million total contract value and nearly 4x the guaranteed money. Now, if he somehow improves beyond that and into the late 1st round (I don't think this will happen, but who knows), it's not even close in terms of the value.

 

[jnf2257]

Matt Porter said Kaaya leaning towards staying on his latest article

 

[kutz]

Leave. Get paid. It sucks for us but it's what's right.

No. Stay, get your degree then set yourself up for the future after football. he is fully capable of leading a college team but he won't be doing **** in the league for at least 2 years.