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Kaaya Decision: Money Analysis

In many cases I think it's a good idea for kids to go pro early. Particularly if they are from poor families to begin with and maybe can't afford to pay insurance fees. The amount of money you get from one year of one NFL contract - even if you get picked in the later rounds - is life changing money for the average family.

However, from all accounts I have read, Kaaya is from a well-off family. This enables him to truly approach this from an objective business standpoint. Add on to that the fact that he is a QB who has the opportunity to greatly increase his draft value - unlike some other positions like RB - and I'm in total agreement that he should stay.

He would be squandering the opportunity to greatly increase his potential value in a one year time frame, perhaps doubling the amount of money he could make in his first contract. Furthermore, while the second contract argument usually does make sense, it does not in this circumstance. Partially because he is a QB and players in that position generally have exceptionally long careers if even remotely successful.
 
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People keep bringing up the fact that Brad's family is well off as a reason he might not leave but I'd guess he doesn't want to live off mommy and daddy forever. I think he wants to make his own millions so the only way I think he comes back is if he gets told he won't be drafted in the first 2 rounds.
 
jjm305 said:
People keep bringing up the fact that Brad's family is well off as a reason he might not leave but I'd guess he doesn't want to live off mommy and daddy forever. I think he wants to make his own millions so the only way I think he comes back is if he gets told he won't be drafted in the first 2 rounds.
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You've got it backwards. It's not about living off mom and dad, it's not having to SUPPORT mom and dad. That's why kids leave early. Not to secure their own money, but to get their own families out of the gutter.
 
There are going to be a lot of disapointed people on this board, if what I'm hearing is true. A lot of people will be happy too.
 
I find it extremely ignorant for people to make any assumption on whether he is ready or not.

Are there a couple things he could work on to better his position for next year? Yes, probably but if you look at the NFL there are some REALLY BAD starting QB's. From all accounts, Brad is extremely smart, throws a **** good accurate ball and has the pro typical build for a pocket passer.

I would be EXTREMELY shocked if he fell passed the 3rd round.

I want him back but I would understand if he did leave.
 
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Jaromir Jagr said:
jjm305 said:
People keep bringing up the fact that Brad's family is well off as a reason he might not leave but I'd guess he doesn't want to live off mommy and daddy forever. I think he wants to make his own millions so the only way I think he comes back is if he gets told he won't be drafted in the first 2 rounds.
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You've got it backwards. It's not about living off mom and dad, it's not having to SUPPORT mom and dad. That's why kids leave early. Not to secure their own money, but to get their own families out of the gutter.
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I hear you but I don't believe these kids leave solely based on their families situation without any selfish reasons
 
I don't see him in the top 3 rounds. His mobility does NOT equate to the NFL. He needs a major overhaul in that department if he wants a major payday. I would be shocked if he did not come back...
 
Kaaya needs to come back and work on pocket movement and being able to avoid the rush. He's never going to be mobile but neither were guys like Manning or Brady but they were/are experts of sliding in the pocket and buying more time.
 
It comes down to QB class. Does he think there are less good QBs this year then next year because his limitations are not going to get much better staying another year in college. This is a weak QB class overall so I think he would be better off leaving.
 
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jjm305 said:
Jaromir Jagr said:
jjm305 said:
People keep bringing up the fact that Brad's family is well off as a reason he might not leave but I'd guess he doesn't want to live off mommy and daddy forever. I think he wants to make his own millions so the only way I think he comes back is if he gets told he won't be drafted in the first 2 rounds.
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You've got it backwards. It's not about living off mom and dad, it's not having to SUPPORT mom and dad. That's why kids leave early. Not to secure their own money, but to get their own families out of the gutter.
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I hear you but I don't believe these kids leave solely based on their families situation without any selfish reasons
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We weren't addressing kids in general, we were addressing kids as it relates to their parents' financial situation.
 
HurricaneAce07 said:
I honestly don't understand why he would lean towards leaving. When you look at it as objectively as possible, just about everything points to staying. Better chance to make the ACCCG, possibility (if we continue to improve) of something special in 2017, Oline will be improved, CMR improvements at play calling, we'll have a STOUT defense, Walton, Richards, a re-energized fan base, go down as a record breaking 4-year starter for UM. He can only improve his draft stock and $ if stays.

I really hope his handlers are giving him proper insight, because I just can't fathom him thinking the 2016 draft is the pinnacle of where he could end up.
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because he's hit his ceiling and the words gonna get out if he spends another season here
 
How common is it for a QB to declare early when he in no way has a shot at the starting job in his first year? I assume most guys who declare early have the potential to start and can at least compete for the job. Kaaya will do nothing but hold a clip board next year and would very likely be a 3rd stringer on most teams.

Only way leaving early makes sense is if he realizes that he may never be a starter in the league and he's OK going in the fourth round, making $800k over the next 3 years, and then starting life after his first contract runs out. If he sees it that way, then I can totally respect that. But if he thinks he's got a shot of having an NFL career, then why wouldn't he come back next year and work on the many things he needs work on?
 
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jjm305 said:
People keep bringing up the fact that Brad's family is well off as a reason he might not leave but I'd guess he doesn't want to live off mommy and daddy forever. I think he wants to make his own millions so the only way I think he comes back is if he gets told he won't be drafted in the first 2 rounds.
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How well off is this family? Unless they're incredibly wealthy or run a business that he can be hired into, he's going to have to go out and earn his own money without that much help from his parents.
 
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whoopingcane said:
There are going to be a lot of disapointed people on this board, if what I'm hearing is true. A lot of people will be happy too.
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So overplayed. I can forward some links to stand up comic forums if you are interested. Might be better suited for you.
 
LuCane said:
With all the talk about social media tweets, I thought this was a separate angle to discuss:

What does the decision look like financially?

Some people say Kaaya is expected to go in the top 10. While I completely disagree he's worth this risk to an NFL team, obviously he should go if it's the case. Others think he'll be, at worst, a 2nd rounder. If that's remotely true, he should also go. Others, including me, think he'll be maximum somewhere between a 3rd or early 4th rounder if he were to leave early. Looking at last year's draft, 10 QBs were taken in the top 5 rounds. 6 QBs were taken in the top 3 rounds.

Paxton Lynch, taken in the late 1st (26th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 9.5 million, with a 5 million signing bonus. (~7.8 million guaranteed)
Christian Hackenberg, taken in the 2nd (51st overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 4.6 million, with a 1.6 million signing bonus. (~2.2 million guaranteed)
Cody Kessler, taken in the 3rd (93rd overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 3.4 million, with a 660k signing bonus. (~1.1 million guaranteed)
Connor Cook, taken in the 4th (100th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and just shy of 3 million, with a 619k signing bonus. (619k guaranteed)

With anywhere from 5 to 6 guys currently "projected" above Kaaya at this time (pre-combine, etc.), the question is if Kaaya believes another year at Miami can help him show something different from his current limitations and perception to launch him into, at least, 2nd round money.

If that were the case, he'd hypothetically go from a total contract value of something like 3.9 million with approximately 800k guaranteed to 6.2 million total contract value with 2+ million guaranteed. For those wondering about a potential injury, please take under consideration insurance plans for players in Kaaya's position and vastly shorter timetables for what were career-ending injuries a couple decades ago.
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Top 10? 1st round Top 10? Please supply a source or link predicting this status.
 
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252cane said:
Right now most have kaaya still as a top 5 qb in the draft. Most have watson, trubisky, and kizer ahead of him. So if that was to hold up he would likely be looking at 2nd round, 3rd round at worst.
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Most had Paxton Lynch of the top QB last year about this same time. Look how that changed once they scrutinized him further (-25 spots). Plus, a lot will depend on which underclassmen declare (Mahomes, Rudolph, Trubisky) to go with Watson, Kizer, Kelly and Webb.

What does Top5 really mean? More important, he needs to listen NFL feedback and the round grade, not ranking.

The pessimistic view:
2015 - Top5 was Mannion and Petty in Rounds 3 and 4 (only 7 Qbs drafted).
2013 - Top5 was Barkley and Nassib in Round 4.

The optimistic view:
2016 - Top5 was Hackenberg (TERRIBLE pick) and Brissett in the 2nd and 3rd.
2014 - Top5 was Carr and Garoppolo in the 2nd.
2012 - Top 5 was Weeden and Osweiler in the 1st and 2nd.
 
southpaw47 said:
LuCane said:
With all the talk about social media tweets, I thought this was a separate angle to discuss:

What does the decision look like financially?

Some people say Kaaya is expected to go in the top 10. While I completely disagree he's worth this risk to an NFL team, obviously he should go if it's the case. Others think he'll be, at worst, a 2nd rounder. If that's remotely true, he should also go. Others, including me, think he'll be maximum somewhere between a 3rd or early 4th rounder if he were to leave early. Looking at last year's draft, 10 QBs were taken in the top 5 rounds. 6 QBs were taken in the top 3 rounds.

Paxton Lynch, taken in the late 1st (26th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 9.5 million, with a 5 million signing bonus. (~7.8 million guaranteed)
Christian Hackenberg, taken in the 2nd (51st overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 4.6 million, with a 1.6 million signing bonus. (~2.2 million guaranteed)
Cody Kessler, taken in the 3rd (93rd overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and 3.4 million, with a 660k signing bonus. (~1.1 million guaranteed)
Connor Cook, taken in the 4th (100th overall), signed a contract for around 4 years and just shy of 3 million, with a 619k signing bonus. (619k guaranteed)

With anywhere from 5 to 6 guys currently "projected" above Kaaya at this time (pre-combine, etc.), the question is if Kaaya believes another year at Miami can help him show something different from his current limitations and perception to launch him into, at least, 2nd round money.

If that were the case, he'd hypothetically go from a total contract value of something like 3.9 million with approximately 800k guaranteed to 6.2 million total contract value with 2+ million guaranteed. For those wondering about a potential injury, please take under consideration insurance plans for players in Kaaya's position and vastly shorter timetables for what were career-ending injuries a couple decades ago.
Click to expand...

Top 10? 1st round Top 10? Please supply a source or link predicting this status.
Click to expand...
It's all over message boards. I answered one post with these exact mentions just yesterday. I've also seen a mock draft within the past couple months with Kaaya as a top 5 pick.

Edit: 2017 NFL Mock Draft: Brad Kaaya Lands in Top 5 | Heavy.com | Page 2

Now, "please" feel free to discuss the substance of the thread.
 
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