Josh Pate Speaking Facts on Miami's loss to GT (11/10)

[HurricaneAce07]

Fair and logical, as usual from Josh.

He said one thing that I’ve really been shaking my head at the last 2 days too. It only took 28 to get us. I genuinely did not think that was in our range of outcomes. We’re killing the defense, and rightfully so. But we lost a game giving up 28 points. I thought if/when we lost, it’d take AT LEAST 35, if not 40. I just can’t believe we only scored 23.

More on this in the stat roll thread, but regression to the mean finally got us on 3rd and 4th down. We’d be comically great up until now. We finally had a down game, and it results in 23 points.

But that game really didn’t change a whole lot to me, once I got over the initial disappointment of hoping for a true miracle season and going undefeated into the playoff. It’s a good team, with flaws. Just like a lot of teams. We didn’t lose by 30. With Cam Ward, we’ll be in the game against anyone we play, imo. This one, we came up one possession short.

The problem I had was we made a lot of dumb mistakes when it came to our 4th down decision making... We left 6 points on the field by going for it on 4th down deep in GT territory and not taking the field goals. The worst one was the 4th and 1 call that we decided to pass instead of just run it behind our OL. That one still burns.

 

[mavericksouth]

Yeah we win the ACC & maybe sneak 1 play off win and thats all i hopeful for

Me too. And you know what, that's an extremely successful season and removes any doubt about Mario (at least from me).

 

[skyman]

I think the pff guys do a good job also.. their info besides the ratings is pretty good (not sure why ratings get more love tho)

 

[Yoyo82]

He’s generally fair. I’ve said before that anyone thinking we had a serious chance at winning a Natty this year was delusional. Winning the ACC, finally, and getting into the playoff was the goal.

I agreed with that at the beginning of the year.

But after seeing our offense and Cam far exceed expectations along with the lack of a clear dominant team, I started believing that we could compete for a NC..especially if our defense was just "good". The first 4 games made me believe our defense was better than it is and watching the other teams, I believed we could compete for a NC.

And if we just had a decent defense, we could.

 

[sedlst11]

The problem I had was we made a lot of dumb mistakes when it came to our 4th down decision making... We left 6 points on the field by going for it on 4th down deep in GT territory and not taking the field goals. The worst one was the 4th and 1 call that we decided to pass instead of just run it behind our OL. That one still burns.

Yea that one hurt but he had Fletcher early if he pulled the trigger

 

[hoops156]

Fair and logical, as usual from Josh.

He said one thing that I’ve really been shaking my head at the last 2 days too. It only took 28 to get us. I genuinely did not think that was in our range of outcomes. We’re killing the defense, and rightfully so. But we lost a game giving up 28 points. I thought if/when we lost, it’d take AT LEAST 35, if not 40. I just can’t believe we only scored 23.

More on this in the stat roll thread, but regression to the mean finally got us on 3rd and 4th down. We’d be comically great up until now. We finally had a down game, and it results in 23 points.

But that game really didn’t change a whole lot to me, once I got over the initial disappointment of hoping for a true miracle season and going undefeated into the playoff. It’s a good team, with flaws. Just like a lot of teams. We didn’t lose by 30. With Cam Ward, we’ll be in the game against anyone we play, imo. This one, we came up one possession short.

it was 35. gt just fell down on their own to run out the clock

 

[CANESCANES]

Fair and logical, as usual from Josh.

He said one thing that I’ve really been shaking my head at the last 2 days too. It only took 28 to get us. I genuinely did not think that was in our range of outcomes. We’re killing the defense, and rightfully so. But we lost a game giving up 28 points. I thought if/when we lost, it’d take AT LEAST 35, if not 40. I just can’t believe we only scored 23.

More on this in the stat roll thread, but regression to the mean finally got us on 3rd and 4th down. We’d be comically great up until now. We finally had a down game, and it results in 23 points.

But that game really didn’t change a whole lot to me, once I got over the initial disappointment of hoping for a true miracle season and going undefeated into the playoff. It’s a good team, with flaws. Just like a lot of teams. We didn’t lose by 30. With Cam Ward, we’ll be in the game against anyone we play, imo. This one, we came up one possession short.

That regression to mean worried me for the past 4 weeks,…

How could anyone sustain a 10/11 4th down conversion rate…I KNEW it would come back to bite us in the *** sooner than later

 

[hoops156]

Yea that one hurt but he had Fletcher early if he pulled the trigger

I believe that was on fletch. he didnt turn around early enough and when he did he was far deeper than he should have been and allowed a defender to come over.

it should have been a run to 6 or a pass to 6. hes better than 4 as a pass catcher

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

it was 35. gt just fell down on their own to run out the clock

We’d have very likely won 29-28 or 31-28 if we go down and score on the last drive. It’s splitting hairs, at the end of the day it took 28 to beat our offense. I didn’t think that would happen.

 

[sedlst11]

I believe that was on fletch. he didnt turn around early enough and when he did he was far deeper than he should have been and allowed a defender to come over.

it should have been a run to 6 or a pass to 6. hes better than 4 as a pass catcher

I agree it shouldve been a run to 6. We have done it all year and it has worked. They definitely were trying to catch GT off guard but they were ready.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

The problem I had was we made a lot of dumb mistakes when it came to our 4th down decision making... We left 6 points on the field by going for it on 4th down deep in GT territory and not taking the field goals. The worst one was the 4th and 1 call that we decided to pass instead of just run it behind our OL. That one still burns.

Yeah, especially when we haven’t been stopped on a 4th and 1 all season running the ball. That made zero sense. We ran the ball 7 straight times coming out of the half. The one time we should have run it, we ran a 2 man route with a really ****** play action fake? If you’re gonna break tendencies and throw, at least go really hard play action like we did to arroyo earlier in the year. That was a really bad decision by Dawson.

 

[hoops156]

We’d have very likely won 29-28 or 31-28 if we go down and score on the last drive. It’s splitting hairs, at the end of the day it took 28 to beat our offense. I didn’t think that would happen.

and our defense gave up 28 to an armless QB and an equipment manager at RB

 

[MikeCane18]

The problem I had was we made a lot of dumb mistakes when it came to our 4th down decision making... We left 6 points on the field by going for it on 4th down deep in GT territory and not taking the field goals. The worst one was the 4th and 1 call that we decided to pass instead of just run it behind our OL. That one still burns.

Was having this discussion with my Dad earlier on this. I know we would all like to have those opportunities back. I thought we should have taken the points before half, but I can understand some of the analytics and decision behind going for it. Also, I think Mario pressed because he saw how awful we are on defense, but hindsight is 20/20. The 4th and 1 was the right call to go, absolutely abysmal decision to pass though.

 

[U_Canes]

This is 100% on the coaches. If our players are still taking horrific angles on plays, missing assignments and are always confused on their pre-snap alignments in the month of November then we have a larger issue brewing than just being devoid of talent.

I haven’t quite wrapped my head around this though. Our defense wasn’t elite last year… but it wasn’t like this. Did having Kam just cover that much up? Did Guidry suddenly forget how to coach these things?

But also if our ‘veterans’ can’t tackle, don’t know where to line up or their assignments then why are they even in? What are they providing that some of our younger more athletic guys couldn’t?

 

[canes732]

I'm furious about our flaws because I watch and rewatch our games. However glancing around: Every team that they think is good enough to compete has serious flaws and are very getable. We have as good a shot as anyone.

Idk man our defense is historically bad. I’m not an analytics guy but my eyes tell me it’s one of the worst I’ve ever seen

 

[pacusmc]

We have a second bye week for Guidry to get his head out of his ***. First time it did not go well and been downhill ever since. Let's hope for some type of miracle.

If it didn’t come out after the Cal game it’s stuck in there for good.

 

[hoops156]

I haven’t quite wrapped my head around this though. Our defense wasn’t elite last year… but it wasn’t like this. Did having Kam just cover that much up? Did Guidry suddenly forget how to coach these things?

But also if our ‘veterans’ can’t tackle, don’t know where to line up or their assignments then why are they even in? What are they providing that some of our younger more athletic guys couldn’t?

maybe Guidry just isnt a good coach? Kam regressed under Guidry than when he played for Steele (I believe Steele coached the safeties too)

 

[hoops156]

Idk man our defense is historically bad. I’m not an analytics guy but my eyes tell me it’s one of the worst I’ve ever seen

we've played 1 good offense all year. our D cant stop anyone. its pathetic.

 

[CANESCANES]

We’d have very likely won 29-28 or 31-28 if we go down and score on the last drive. It’s splitting hairs, at the end of the day it took 28 to beat our offense. I didn’t think that would happen.

Agreed, shocking it only took 28 to beat this offense

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

and our defense gave up 28 to an armless QB and an equipment manager at RB

Very true. Pathetic defense overall. We actually limited the explosives pretty well, we just couldn’t get them off the field at all. Pretty much exactly opposite of how the other games have gone.

Really though my point was, if you told me pregame that GT would have 28 points with a minute left in the game, id have bet anything we’d be winning. Still in shock we only scored 3 TDs on 10 possessions. We scored half our season average.