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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Badbart43 said:
UM, UNC, ND to the B10
FSU, Clemson to SEC

Attached are my sauces
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atlCanesFan said:
Not trying to be sarcastic, but what leverage and or influence on the other conferences would Jim Phillips have to implement this "reset" he is asking for.
From my limited view, I don't see any tools at his disposal. Sounds like desperation.
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As long as he can keep UNC in house, ACC will live on. I think FSU and Clemson are good as gone and outside of UNC and Miami, no other “need to get them now” P2 schools. If UNC stays, what motivation does ND have for jumping to Big10, when they can schedule UNC, Stanford, Cal along with Army, Navy and their choice of ACC schools, and an ooc game with USC?

Could ACC and Big12 eventually merge or partner together?
 
rascon said:
As long as he can keep UNC in house, ACC will live on. I think FSU and Clemson are good as gone and outside of UNC and Miami, no other “need to get them now” P2 schools. If UNC stays, what motivation does ND have for jumping to Big10, when they can schedule UNC, Stanford, Cal along with Army, Navy and their choice of ACC schools, and an ooc game with USC?

Could ACC and Big12 eventually merge or partner together?
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Why does the ACC only survive if UNC STAYS? What if fsu stays but UNC goes, does the ACC SURVIVE?
 
TheOGCane said:
Why does the ACC only survive if UNC STAYS? What if fsu stays but UNC goes, does the ACC SURVIVE?
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In my humble opinion, no. UNC is the most important team in the ACC in terms of survival. It is the crown jewel. ACC tries to set itself apart from the other conferences as being the best academic conference. With Stanford and Cal now, it’s by far the best academic conference. FSU is good at football but isn’t great for academics (and Clemson is much worse at academics ). So if it leaves, the ACC could try and steal another public university that has a big alumni base and is bad at academics like UCF if it really needed it. Plus UNC is going to be tied to NC St by the NC legislature. It’s not like Oregon where no one cares about Oregon State. NC St isn’t going to be left to die. So if UNC goes, so does NC St.

BTW- I think the 2nd most important team in the ACC isn’t even a full part of the ACC. As long as the ACC exists, I believe the contract says Notre Dame can’t join another conference. As far as I know, there is no buyout provision. If the new ACC commish somehow gets Notre Dame to be a full member (unlikely , I know), I think it gets the ACC 4-5 more years, which is probably when the "Big Reset” happens and all teams join a mega conference anyways.

ACCs one hope is that Notre Dame knows this is inevitable and they will ultimately have to join a conference in 5 years, so might as well throw the ACC a bone now and keep it afloat instead of having to join the B1G, which it has hated with a passion since the early 1900s (few key members of the Big 10 were extremely anti-Catholic and kept ND out of the conference) .
 
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Handsome Squidbum said:
In my humble opinion, no. UNC is the most important team in the ACC in terms of survival. It is the crown jewel. ACC tries to set itself apart from the other conferences as being the best academic conference. With Stanford and Cal now, it’s by far the best academic conference. FSU is good at football but isn’t great for academics (and Clemson is much worse at academics ). So if it leaves, the ACC could try and steal another public university that has a big alumni base and is bad at academics like UCF if it really needed it. Plus UNC is going to be tied to NC St by the NC legislature. It’s not like Oregon where no one cares about Oregon State. NC St isn’t going to be left to die. So if UNC goes, so does NC St.

BTW- I think the 2nd most important team in the ACC isn’t even a full part of the ACC. As long as the ACC exists, I believe the contract says Notre Dame can’t join another conference. As far as I know, there is no buyout provision. If the new ACC commish somehow gets Notre Dame to be a full member (unlikely , I know), I think it gets the ACC 4-5 more years, which is probably when the "Big Reset” happens and all teams join a mega conference anyways.

ACCs one hope is that Notre Dame knows this is inevitable and they will ultimately have to join a conference in 5 years, so might as well throw the ACC a bone now and keep it afloat instead of having to join the B1G, which it has hated with a passion since the early 1900s (few key members of the Big 10 were extremely anti-Catholic and kept ND out of the conference) .
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I agree with lots here. I don’t think ND joins ACC, but I could see them happily contining the arrangement - I believe they were very supportive of Stanford getting in so I don’t think they will force their way out of a very favorable situation as long as they are competitive in their overall $$$ situation.

Wouldn’t surprise me that once Stanford and Cal come onboard officially, if the next school to join the ACC has some type of connection to one or both of these schools. Who that is - I don’t know.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
In my humble opinion, no. UNC is the most important team in the ACC in terms of survival. It is the crown jewel. ACC tries to set itself apart from the other conferences as being the best academic conference. With Stanford and Cal now, it’s by far the best academic conference. FSU is good at football but isn’t great for academics (and Clemson is much worse at academics ). So if it leaves, the ACC could try and steal another public university that has a big alumni base and is bad at academics like UCF if it really needed it. Plus UNC is going to be tied to NC St by the NC legislature. It’s not like Oregon where no one cares about Oregon State. NC St isn’t going to be left to die. So if UNC goes, so does NC St.

BTW- I think the 2nd most important team in the ACC isn’t even a full part of the ACC. As long as the ACC exists, I believe the contract says Notre Dame can’t join another conference. As far as I know, there is no buyout provision. If the new ACC commish somehow gets Notre Dame to be a full member (unlikely , I know), I think it gets the ACC 4-5 more years, which is probably when the "Big Reset” happens and all teams join a mega conference anyways.

ACCs one hope is that Notre Dame knows this is inevitable and they will ultimately have to join a conference in 5 years, so might as well throw the ACC a bone now and keep it afloat instead of having to join the B1G, which it has hated with a passion since the early 1900s (few key members of the Big 10 were extremely anti-Catholic and kept ND out of the conference) .
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There is nothing preventing ND from doing a scheduling arrangement with the Big 10 any time they want for football. They only have a 5 game commitment with the ACC so they can do the same type deal with the Big 10 and still have two open games for old rivalry games like Navy. And ND CAN leave the ACC just like any other member ... they just have to pay the exit fee which would be less for them since they aren't football conference members.
 
Judge Cooper advised via an email this morning (Friday 6/21) that a). He denied the ACC motion to dismiss b). He denied the motion to stay discovery.
To the lawyers (and attorneys) on board ... how much longer can the ACC delay discovery via appeals etc? Would be nice to get into the juicy stuff ... aka the ESPN media agreement and the interpretation of how it is tied to and limits the GOR ... aka the "get out of jail free card".
 
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TheOGCane said:
Why does the ACC only survive if UNC STAYS? What if fsu stays but UNC goes, does the ACC SURVIVE?
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Saw a video by some Big 12 guys and after doing the math, they figured out if FSU, Clemson and Miami leave, that amounts to 45% of viewership which if ESPN were to reduce the contract by that amount would mean the end of the ACC. He even went further and stated that those 3 would have to pay the exit fee of $342 million each for the remaining schools to get enough money to match the BIG 12 contract. End result if Miami leaves with FSU/Clemson, the ACC is done.
 
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What may end up killing the ACC will be the fight that happens when they need to vote to settle or not with FSU and Clemson. For some a settlement may make sense. For others it may not. For Miami, we won’t know until we see it. Isn’t the worst thing for us if this stays in the courts forever.
 
airrang said:
Saw a video by some Big 12 guys and after doing the math, they figured out if FSU, Clemson and Miami leave, that amounts to 45% of viewership which if ESPN were to reduce the contract by that amount would mean the end of the ACC. He even went further and stated that those 3 would have to pay the exit fee of $342 million each for the remaining schools to get enough money to match the BIG 12 contract. End result if Miami leaves with FSU/Clemson, the ACC is done.
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But did they consider ESPN's below-market deal with the ACC? Let's hypothesize (though I don’t have exact numbers): say the ACC is receiving $50 million from ESPN when it should be getting $65-70 million per team. Theoretically, taking 45% of that potential total—not the current deal—suggests a new market rate of $35-40 million, rather than $20-25 million. With North Carolina, Notre Dame, and the other teams, this amount isn’t sufficient to shut down and move to the Big 12, especially since these schools can split exit fees from departing members.
 
Rickd said:
There is nothing preventing ND from doing a scheduling arrangement with the Big 10 any time they want for football. They only have a 5 game commitment with the ACC so they can do the same type deal with the Big 10 and still have two open games for old rivalry games like Navy. And ND CAN leave the ACC just like any other member ... they just have to pay the exit fee which would be less for them since they aren't football conference members.
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They could have at any time but they haven’t. Even in the Covid season, there was no serious discussion of leaving the ACC affiliation for the B1G or the SEC although they could easily afford the exit fee. I don’t think people understand how much Notre Dame dislikes the B1G. They really like the current setup with the ACC.

Phillips is looking for a big time move to show the ACC is stable. Right now there is no other conference that looks as close to disappearing like the Pac12 as the ACC. Notre Dame wants to keep its tv deal with NBC and have scheduling flexibility but they also don’t want the ACC to disappear. I would not be surprised if ND repays the favor of the Covid season by agreeing to a drug deal with Phillips. Phillips announces that ND has “officially” joined the ACC but in reality Notre Dame remains independent in all but name (they get to keep NBC contract, still have more scheduling flexibility than other ACC teams, but also have to play 7 or 8 ACC teams instead of 5). It would obviously just be window dressing, but people have a short attention span. The headline will read "Notre Dame drops independence for the ACC"and it gets a ton of buzz and makes Phillips appear like a strong commissioner. Few people are going to dig into the particulars. It doesn’t bring more money to the ACC so the underlying problems don’t change, but right now the key issue is perception and the drug deal buys Phillips and the ACC some time.

Again I think the most likely outcome of all this is the ACC slims down and increases quality - it " adds" ND, and sends a few teams (Louisville, Syracuse, possibly NC St) to the Big 12 without them having to pay the exit fee to increase the payout to the remaining ACC teams, espn agrees to up the payouts because of the market competitiveness clause in the contract, and most importantly, the ACC does a massive overhaul of the revenue distribution so the teams that get the best ratings get more money.

On paper the top teams in the ACC will make reasonably close to what the P2 makes (not the entire conference just the top teams). FSU and Clemson drop their complaints and can live with the ACC arrangement for a few more years knowing the one giant mega conference is on the horizon.
 
3FW said:
What may end up killing the ACC will be the fight that happens when they need to vote to settle or not with FSU and Clemson. For some a settlement may make sense. For others it may not. For Miami, we won’t know until we see it. Isn’t the worst thing for us if this stays in the courts forever.
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Alternative theory- BIG schools will be making 90m next year. And that’s before they get a higher cfp percentage in two years as their media rights go up
 
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rascon said:
But did they consider ESPN's below-market deal with the ACC? Let's hypothesize (though I don’t have exact numbers): say the ACC is receiving $50 million from ESPN when it should be getting $65-70 million per team. Theoretically, taking 45% of that potential total—not the current deal—suggests a new market rate of $35-40 million, rather than $20-25 million. With North Carolina, Notre Dame, and the other teams, this amount isn’t sufficient to shut down and move to the Big 12, especially since these schools can split exit fees from departing members.
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The ACC doesn't have a "below market deal" for all conference members. The ONLY teams in the ACC that warrant a higher payout are FSU, Clemson, Miami, for football and possibly UNC when you bring in basketball combined with football. The rest are getting MORE than they warrant based on the viewers they bring to TV.
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
They could have at any time but they haven’t. Even in the Covid season, there was no serious discussion of leaving the ACC affiliation for the B1G or the SEC although they could easily afford the exit fee. I don’t think people understand how much Notre Dame dislikes the B1G. They really like the current setup with the ACC.

Phillips is looking for a big time move to show the ACC is stable. Right now there is no other conference that looks as close to disappearing like the Pac12 as the ACC. Notre Dame wants to keep its tv deal with NBC and have scheduling flexibility but they also don’t want the ACC to disappear. I would not be surprised if ND repays the favor of the Covid season by agreeing to a drug deal with Phillips. Phillips announces that ND has “officially” joined the ACC but in reality Notre Dame remains independent in all but name (they get to keep NBC contract, still have more scheduling flexibility than other ACC teams, but also have to play 7 or 8 ACC teams instead of 5). It would obviously just be window dressing, but people have a short attention span. The headline will read "Notre Dame drops independence for the ACC"and it gets a ton of buzz and makes Phillips appear like a strong commissioner. Few people are going to dig into the particulars. It doesn’t bring more money to the ACC so the underlying problems don’t change, but right now the key issue is perception and the drug deal buys Phillips and the ACC some time.

Again I think the most likely outcome of all this is the ACC slims down and increases quality - it " adds" ND, and sends a few teams (Louisville, Syracuse, possibly NC St) to the Big 12 without them having to pay the exit fee to increase the payout to the remaining ACC teams, espn agrees to up the payouts because of the market competitiveness clause in the contract, and most importantly, the ACC does a massive overhaul of the revenue distribution so the teams that get the best ratings get more money.

On paper the top teams in the ACC will make reasonably close to what the P2 makes (not the entire conference just the top teams). FSU and Clemson drop their complaints and can live with the ACC arrangement for a few more years knowing the one giant mega conference is on the horizon.
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For any of that to have even a slight chance of happening Phillips would have to have a modicum of intelligence and leadership that has not been seen as of yet, and he is disliked so intensely by FSU that I don't see any chance that they remain in the ACC. And no way that ND remotely considers becoming "more associated with" the ACC.
 
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Rickd said:
For any of that to have even a slight chance of happening Phillips would have to have a modicum of intelligence and leadership that has not been seen as of yet, and he is disliked so intensely by FSU that I don't see any chance that they remain in the ACC. And no way that ND remotely considers becoming "more associated with" the ACC.
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We shall see. Only thing that matters to me is UM, if I rank in order of likelihood its

1. Stay in ACC
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. B1G

And before the assclowns call me a troll, I’m not saying this is my preference, just what I think is the most probable. I still think no one - not FSU, Clemson, UM, or UNC- leaves the ACC UNLESS it is to a conference with a tie to ESPN (big 12 and SEC). ESPN so far has steered clear and not really involved the courts because it knows it knows FSU and Clemsons lawsuit is just saber rattling. If it ever looks likely that the two schools will win and leave for the B1G, espn is going to stop it cold. It isn’t going to lose those teams to Fox Sports .
 
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