MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Canesfan1993]

I’m not sure what he’s hearing so not here to refute that but I’m quite certain he’s wrong on the numbers behind his theory. Not a shot at Flo to be clear but the math he’s indicating even if big 12 renegotiates a new deal up because of higher value schools joining is wrong imo. I truly like Flo and all that his crew does. Maybe there is some 8d chess version where suddenly big 12 territory is no longer in bum**** with few exceptions (unlike the deal they just got a year ago with 4 larger metros and states added and yet still )

Simplest version (and I may update this later with more detail- edit I did )
- new big 12 deal ends with 2030 football season, big ten is 2029 season I believe (maybe 2030- I’ve seen both out there but I think that’s confusion over academic vs calendar year)

- even in the worst estimate range for big ten and best estimate range for the big 12, the annual payment per team is more than twice in the big ten (thus 50% in big ten is more than 100% in big 12). Those are 71m and 31.7m respectively annualized average (there are no higher numbers reported for big 12, but there are estimates for big 10 that by the last year of deal are in the $85M to $100m+ range- remember big 12 deal starts this year, while lowest $ deal year of big ten that lowers the average already happened in 2023). Using annualized because not great sources of how it escalates per year but a good rule of thumb could be 5-10% a year.

- let’s say Miami rights are worth as much as Notre Dames (they aren’t as we all know but giving best benefit of doubt to how much a premium brand school could add vs just the same existing per school 100% share payout) all in rights under their new football deal with nbc, plus their all other sports acc revenue- that’s reported to be $67M total. Now divide that among 17 members if Miami was the only one added - if all get equal share that’s 3.9m - essentially making the two deals even if big ten gave you 50% share in worst case of annual revenue, but as I showed you above it’s more likely to still not be close to big ten especially if towards higher range of estimate… but wait there’s more

Add another ND level school? First there aren’t any from media rights perspectives but in alternate universe each team gets 7.4M, so slightly eclipsing lowest range of big ten at half share… but wait, there still more…

- cfp playoff gap- 2026 on $10m gap added on (at least through 2028 look in most likely)

So even if you give Miami the same juice as Notre dame in allowing big 12 to renegotiate up, and take the lowest end of big ten estimates and with only a 50% share you’re still, worst case , +$10m and very likely $25+ million better, you’re in the big ten, your contract comes up a year earlier and you don’t have to get excited over rivalries with Oklahoma state instead of Ohio state.

This doesn’t even touch on attendance gains at home or competing for recruits. (Can you imagine home attendance against most of big 12 teams no one cares about vs having at least in rotation usc, penn st, Ohio state, Michigan, etc - and yes I know that includes Indiana northwestern- but all those schools have tons of snowbird alumni that will fill seats). 10000 more seats sold at avg price of just $100 (Miami tickets average more than that by far when hurricane club factored in) is $1m minimum

Not trying to be a **** but this is accurate and playing to most benefit of the doubt for Miami and the big 12 $. The only way this could work for Miami vs less share in big ten would be if Miami got 125% or greater share- up to 200% share if big ten were to reach their top end projections. And there is truly no scenario where Miami (or Clemson or fsu) rights are worth more (initially) than the 67M Notre dame new deal is worth. If those ND numbers are off by even $10m it still works out better in most scenarios. (Edit and remember the ND numbers above don’t include the $12m they get from cfp)

And even then it’s a wash on money and you’re stuck there with crap schedule and having to recruit players against the p2. Personally I’d take half share that paid $5m+ less through 2029 to lock into one of the two main conferences and secure the future

This is one of the best hypotheticals that have been posted in here. What many fail to realize, due to either not caring or not knowing, is this is so much more than an athletics decision. For instance, What would the economic impact be for UHealth, and the school as a whole (academic prestige, access to grants, higher caliber students, brand awareness) if we were added to the BIG10 research consortium and had access to that network? Why would Miami go from arguably the 3rd best academic conference in the country (behind ivy and Big10) to the Big 12 with whom, academically, they have close to 0 in common with those institutions like Oklahoma St and Texas tech?

 

[kccanefan]

If we seriously have an offer from the B1G and join the Big 12 instead we still have some ******* morons running the show at the admin level. Which I can't completely rule out. As many have said previously just look at the ******* baseball hire.

I'm truly hoping the B1G is actually interested in adding us right now considering how ****** we've been the last 20 years. We'd still immediately bring a better brand then a lot of their established schools outside the group at the tip top.

There's no guarantees in life and who's to say what things will look like at the next round of negotiations, but gambling with taking the short term bigger paycheck with the Big 12 seems like an awful big risk especially if Miami doesn't start performing at Miami of old level. What would be the incentive to bring them on in 2029 for either of the power 2?

 

[hurricaneman]

There's enough talking heads out there floating the BIG12 thing and trying to sell it that I think the University thinks it's going to be that route and they're pushing the narrative. There's too many people pushing the same message that leads me to believe there are issues.

I think going to the BIG12 is a big mistake unless you could guarantee a spot in the playoff forever and just as much money as the BIG10/SEC gets, which obviously isn't going to happen.

 

[reggie85]

There's enough talking heads out there floating the BIG12 thing and trying to sell it that I think the University thinks it's going to be that route and they're pushing the narrative. There's too many people pushing the same message that leads me to believe there are issues.

I think going to the BIG12 is a big mistake unless you could guarantee a spot in the playoff forever and just as much money as the BIG10/SEC gets, which obviously isn't going to happen.

Even with a guaranteed playoff spot and even money, we still we be at a huge recruiting disadvantage and our best players will transfer to P2 every year. What is the point of dominating the group of schools just to be overmatched in the playoffs every year.

 

[Rickd]

Based on prior acquisitions, if the BigTen was gonna sweeten a deal, it’s likely in the form of covering some portion of exit fees from the incumbent conference and or amortizing the majority of the exit fees by way of offsetting from future BigTen tv money

Less than 5% chance Miami ends up in Big12

Miami and FSU to BigTen. Especially if FSU gets AAU status this year, they’ve been positioning themselves and greasing wheels to make that happen

There's enough talking heads out there floating the BIG12 thing and trying to sell it that I think the University thinks it's going to be that route and they're pushing the narrative. There's too many people pushing the same message that leads me to believe there are issues.

I think going to the BIG12 is a big mistake unless you could guarantee a spot in the playoff forever and just as much money as the BIG10/SEC gets, which obviously isn't going to happen.

Another HUGE issue with B12 vs B10 is RESEARCH FUNDING. The B10 is the largest research conference and by being a member Miami would potentially have access to incremental US Government research funding that would dwarf the media revenue for football.

 

[AtrainCane]

Another HUGE issue with B12 vs B10 is RESEARCH FUNDING. The B10 is the largest research conference and by being a member Miami would potentially have access to incremental US Government research funding that would dwarf the media revenue for football.

 

[kccanefan]

There's enough talking heads out there floating the BIG12 thing and trying to sell it that I think the University thinks it's going to be that route and they're pushing the narrative. There's too many people pushing the same message that leads me to believe there are issues.

I think going to the BIG12 is a big mistake unless you could guarantee a spot in the playoff forever and just as much money as the BIG10/SEC gets, which obviously isn't going to happen.

I agree and it's very concerning. Too many people regurgitating the Big 12 ****. Would be a ******* disaster and only ****es me off that this admin allowed our athletic department and football program fall down so far before they finally stepped up to the plate.

 

[SpikeUM]

This is one of the best hypotheticals that have been posted in here. What many fail to realize, due to either not caring or not knowing, is this is so much more than an athletics decision. For instance, What would the economic impact be for UHealth, and the school as a whole (academic prestige, access to grants, higher caliber students, brand awareness) if we were added to the BIG10 research consortium and had access to that network? Why would Miami go from arguably the 3rd best academic conference in the country (behind ivy and Big10) to the Big 12 with whom, academically, they have close to 0 in common with those institutions like Oklahoma St and Texas tech?

Better BBQ @ away games?

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

B10 only. Under no conditions should Miami ever consider the B12. The programming ... visibility ... recruiting ... the B10 and SEC will totally dominate within 4 years on a level that has not been experienced. The "leftover leagues" will simply become transfer portal talent suppliers for the P2, with most "proven" players transferring after they actually produce.

I agree- but as I said around five months ago- Rad was one of the biggest cheerleaders for the ACC GOR. He was instrumental in getting the ACC network. It was his signature achievement. Trying to get out of the ACC like FSU and suing to join another conference would basically be admitting that he was responsible for pushing for and signing one of the worst media deals in the history of sports. People don’t typically do 180s like that and admit they made a colossally stupid decision and their greatest achievement killed a conference.

That’s why my prediction was that Rads first priority would be to save the ACC , and only when that failed would we seriously pivot to looking at another conference. I’m sure he tried valiantlyfor the B1G, but it’s an issue of carriage fees and value add. A lot depended on which teams the P2 picked. Doesn’t look like the ball bounced like we needed it to. So option is massively reduced shares in B1G or full shares in Big 12 and being their “crown jewel”. We try for the B1G and full shares in the next go round. I don’t know which they will pick. Arguments for both. But I do recall you calling me a troll many times for suggesting what Flo just did.

 

[Felonious Monk]

I agree- but as I said around five months ago- Rad was one of the biggest cheerleaders for the ACC GOR. He was instrumental in getting the ACC network. It was his signature achievement. Trying to get out of the ACC like FSU and suing to join another conference would basically be admitting that he was responsible for pushing for and signing one of the worst media deals in the history of sports. People don’t typically do 180s like that and admit they made a colossally stupid decision and their greatest achievement killed a conference.

That’s why my prediction was that Rads first priority would be to save the ACC , and only when that failed would we seriously pivot to looking at another conference. I’m sure he tried for the B1G, but it’s an issue of carriage fees and value add. A lot depended on which teams the P2 picked. Doesn’t look like the ball bounced like we needed it to. So option is massively reduced shares in B1G or full shares in Big 12 and being their “crown jewel”. We try for the B1G and full shares in the next go round. I don’t know which they will pick. Arguments for both. But I do recall you calling me a troll many times for suggesting what Flo just did.

The initial ACC GOR, not the improper extension of it, though.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Better BBQ @ away games?

SEC. Two teams in Texas...

 

[Ispyin]

This is one of the best hypotheticals that have been posted in here. What many fail to realize, due to either not caring or not knowing, is this is so much more than an athletics decision. For instance, What would the economic impact be for UHealth, and the school as a whole (academic prestige, access to grants, higher caliber students, brand awareness) if we were added to the BIG10 research consortium and had access to that network? Why would Miami go from arguably the 3rd best academic conference in the country (behind ivy and Big10) to the Big 12 with whom, academically, they have close to 0 in common with those institutions like Oklahoma St and Texas tech?

I didn’t even want to go into the 8d chess version of why it doesn’t work because stating that would inevitably have someone **** on the actual numbers provided by deflecting to “it’s only football decision” so I kept it there and still dropped a mic I think








But you’re correct

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I agree- but as I said around five months ago- Rad was one of the biggest cheerleaders for the ACC GOR. He was instrumental in getting the ACC network. It was his signature achievement. Trying to get out of the ACC like FSU and suing to join another conference would basically be admitting that he was responsible for pushing for and signing one of the worst media deals in the history of sports. People don’t typically do 180s like that and admit they made a colossally stupid decision and their greatest achievement killed a conference.

That’s why my prediction was that Rads first priority would be to save the ACC , and only when that failed would we seriously pivot to looking at another conference. I’m sure he tried valiantlyfor the B1G, but it’s an issue of carriage fees and value add. A lot depended on which teams the P2 picked. Doesn’t look like the ball bounced like we needed it to. So option is massively reduced shares in B1G or full shares in Big 12 and being their “crown jewel”. We try for the B1G and full shares in the next go round. I don’t know which they will pick. Arguments for both. But I do recall you calling me a troll many times for suggesting what Flo just did.

Stop it.

First, the original GOR was signed over 10 years ago when Maryland left for the Big 10. There was a rational reason to draft a GOR in order to get a better TV deal. There was NOT a good reason for drafting the GOR so poorly, not to mention extending it.

Second, "getting" the ACC Network was not some big deal. The ACC was the last one to put a deal together BECAUSE we did not own all of our rights and had to wait for the Jefferson Pilot deal to run its course. You can't blame that on Dan, that is 1000% on Swofford.

Acting like ONE out of 15 ADs is the architect of all of the ACC's dysfunction is just nutty.

You consistently misstate and exaggerate cause and effect within the ACC. You have an agenda, to tag Dan Radakovich with all kinds of things that are John Swofford's fault.

Look, I criticize Beta Blake James A LOT. But I don't blame him for the GOR or the ACCN. I blame him for the **** that he was SOLELY responsible for, such as signing a 12-year deal with adidas, hiring terrible coaches, scheduling a terrible OOC schedule each year, and taking too long to build the IPF.

 

[FL Cane]

If a Big 10 offer is on the table we’re going there regardless of the short term payout scheme. We are not going to the Big 12. There’s also no guarantee that they’d choose to expand after the next contract. You get in when you can, you don’t **** around and hope there’s an opportunity in the future.

Honestly, anyone advocating for the Big 12 is a ******* clown whose opinion should be immediately disregarded. There’s no universe where that move would ever make any sense.

 

[Yoyo82]

Washington and Oregon had the same predicament last year.. .full shares in the B12 or partial shares in the B1G... we see where they chose...

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

The initial ACC GOR, not the improper extension of it, though.

The one after Maryland left. I think it tied us up through 2036.

ACC Network is a reality

It’s finally here. After talk, talk and more talk the last several years, the Atlantic Coast Conference seems to be finally getting its own cable television network. Multiple Sources around the ACC…

theclemsoninsider.com

Again- I never said I guaranteed the Big 12 or hoped for it, nor did I claim that people making guaranteed predictions to the P2 were full of **** (only that what I was observing didn’t line up with the optimists), nor did I say UM was a bad program that no one wanted. My opinion was that it was a game of musical chairs, P2 was running out of seats, and I could see the way this was trending months ago. Flo is now saying what I said, so I’m waiting to see if porsters say the same disgusting things about him and his loyalty to UM that they said about me.

 

[Angry Ibis]

I have to say, if Miami is even CONSIDERING an invitation to the B12 over ANY invitation to the B10 (short of an SMU type situation), then it says a lot about their vision and plans for the future.

Seems like the vision of a school that would hire their FB coach before the AD, then not really allow the AD to hire a baseball coach...

 

[Angry Ibis]

If a Big 10 offer is on the table we’re going there regardless of the short term payout scheme. We are not going to the Big 12. There’s also no guarantee that they’d choose to expand after the next contract. You get in when you can, you don’t **** around and hope there’s an opportunity in the future.

Honestly, anyone advocating for the Big 12 is a ******* clown whose opinion should be immediately disregarded. There’s no universe where that move would ever make any sense.

Large....IF

 

[Ispyin]

The one after Maryland left. I think it tied us up through 2036

Incorrect.

Maryland announced leaving in 2012 for start in big ten 2014

Grant of rights extended through 2036 in 2016 when espn agreed to do the acc network. It has been through 2027 prior to that.

 

[kccanefan]

Large....IF

We end up in the Big 12 we didn't have an offer from either of the Power 2.