I’m not sure what he’s hearing so not here to refute that but I’m quite certain he’s wrong on the numbers behind his theory. Not a shot at Flo to be clear but the math he’s indicating even if big 12 renegotiates a new deal up because of higher value schools joining is wrong imo. I truly like Flo and all that his crew does. Maybe there is some 8d chess version where suddenly big 12 territory is no longer in bum**** with few exceptions (unlike the deal they just got a year ago with 4 larger metros and states added and yet still
)
Simplest version (and I may update this later with more detail-
edit I did )
- new big 12 deal ends with 2030 football season, big ten is 2029 season I believe (maybe 2030- I’ve seen both out there but I think that’s confusion over academic vs calendar year)
- even in the worst estimate range for big ten and best estimate range for the big 12, the annual payment per team is more than twice in the big ten (thus 50% in big ten is more than 100% in big 12). Those are 71m and 31.7m respectively annualized average (there are no higher numbers reported for big 12, but there are estimates for big 10 that by the last year of deal are in the $85M to $100m+ range- remember big 12 deal starts this year, while lowest $ deal year of big ten that lowers the average already happened in 2023). Using annualized because not great sources of how it escalates per year but a good rule of thumb could be 5-10% a year.
- let’s say Miami rights are worth as much as Notre Dames
(they aren’t as we all know but giving best benefit of doubt to how much a premium brand school could add vs just the same existing per school 100% share payout) all in rights under their new football deal with nbc, plus their all other sports acc revenue- that’s reported to be $67M total. Now divide that among 17 members if Miami was the only one added - if all get equal share that’s 3.9m - essentially making the two deals even if big ten gave you 50% share in worst case of annual revenue, but as I showed you above it’s more likely to still not be close to big ten especially if towards higher range of estimate… but wait there’s more
Add another ND level school? First there aren’t any from media rights perspectives but in alternate universe each team gets 7.4M, so slightly eclipsing lowest range of big ten at half share… but wait, there still more…
- cfp playoff gap- 2026 on $10m gap added on
(at least through 2028 look in most likely)
So even if you give Miami the same juice as Notre dame in allowing big 12 to renegotiate up, and take the lowest end of big ten estimates and with only a 50% share you’re still, worst case , +$10m and very likely $25+ million better, you’re in the big ten, your contract comes up a year later and you don’t have to get excited over rivalries with Oklahoma state instead of Ohio state.
This doesn’t even touch on attendance gains at home or competing for recruits. (Can you imagine home attendance against most of big 12 teams no one cares about vs having at least in rotation usc, penn st, Ohio state, Michigan, etc - and yes I know that includes Indiana northwestern- but all those schools have tons of snowbird alumni that will fill seats)
Not trying to be a **** but this is accurate and playing to most benefit of the doubt for Miami and the big 12 $. The only way this could work for Miami vs less share in big ten would be if Miami got 125% or greater share- up to 200% share if big ten were to reach their top end projections. And there is truly no scenario where Miami (or Clemson or fsu) rights are worth more (initially) than the 67M Notre dame new deal is worth. If those numbers are off by even $10 m it still works out better in most scenarios
And even then it’s a wash on money and you’re stuck there with crap schedule and having to recruit players against the p2. Personally I’d take half share that paid $5m less through 2029 to lock into one of the two main conferences and secure the future
