Some interesting thoughts in an Athletic article I just read. I pulled what was relevant:
What is Notre Dame’s move?
The sense is that the Big Ten, while being more than welcoming of the potential addition of Notre Dame, is not exactly putting the Irish’s feet to the fire with a decision timeline. The conference got what it wanted with last week’s additions of
UCLA and
USC, and it knows the value that it is bringing to the negotiating table with its media partners this summer.
That’s not to say the Irish aren’t operating from a position of strength. ACC folks have been waiting with bated breath to see what the Irish will do, as the Golden Dome is clearly the biggest domino to fall, and every major individual school move from here on out will likely stem from that.
In the ACC’s case, that decision is two-fold: Notre Dame could save the ACC, so to speak, by joining as a full-time football member (not happening), or it could possibly create an opening for antsy ACC schools to explore their options elsewhere should Notre Dame join the Big Ten. (The logic being that the current ACC media rights deal would be fundamentally altered without the presence of Notre Dame and its five football games per year against ACC competition. And remember, Notre Dame’s home football games are not tied to the ACC’s grant of rights.)
For now, Notre Dame is likely to follow the precedent it set nearly a decade ago when it left the dying Big East for the ACC (partially),
as colleague Pete Sampson wrote. The word leverage may be overstated in this case, as it’s not as if Notre Dame could do much negotiating into a new conference, though perhaps the school could be in position to explore the fine print — league travel partners, annual conference opponents, etc. — before deciding whether to join.
The dollar difference is real between staying a football independent and joining this reconfigured Big Ten. Like, $50 million per year real, to put it at its most conservative estimate.
But this is Notre Dame, and it often marches to the beat of its own drum. Sometimes for better, sometimes for worse. A decision of this magnitude will not be made lightly, nor will it be done by any one individual.
What is the driving force behind realignment now?
Any doubt about Big Ten schools eclipsing the $100 million per year rate with its next TV deal went out the door last week with the additions of UCLA and USC. Hardcore data will emerge in the coming years through tax filings and the like, but it is clear that the conference’s 14 teams will be made richer for having added the Bruins and Trojans.
At the end of the day, that is what it usually comes down to: Can each slice of the evenly split pie continue to grow every time someone else joins and gets its own slice?
The math worked with UCLA and USC, so the Big Ten added them.
The math will work with Notre Dame, so any conference would add the Irish at the first opportunity to do so.
Outside of the Irish, though, are there any surefire revenue generators, especially when you look at the two 16-team superconferences?
That is a question media consultants are hard at work trying to answer. What’s less clear now is if the next non-Notre Dame realignment moves are about financial growth or a simple game of chicken.
There are valuable football programs and/or television properties still out there, whether in the ACC (
Clemson,
Florida State, Miami,
North Carolinaand Virginia, at least) or the Pac-12 (
Stanford,
Oregon and
Washington). But would any of them, either on their own or as a package, make the current 16 members of the Big Ten or SEC whole financially?
Would it matter?
If all roads lead to a Power 2 — the Big Ten (Fox), the SEC (ESPN) and everyone else — then the ensuing steps in realignment could ultimately be proactive measures by one power league to keep desirable schools away from the other. North Carolina, in particular, comes to mind here, as it has both geographical and institutional distinctions that would make for an ideal fit in either the Big Ten or SEC.
That philosophy might be the next play to watch for, because if there were any obvious financial home runs out there — again, outside of Notre Dame — they would have already been scooped up.
