Don't expect college football to use the concepts of promotion and relegation, or underperformers like Illinois and Vandy to be uninvited.
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Which, if any, ACC school would be attractive and why?
Let’s start with North Carolina, which is a big, recognizable athletics brand at an academically prestigious university. Former Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany played point guard for the
Tar Heels, and it’s tough to imagine his old league wouldn’t push hard for his alma mater. But the SEC also would covet the Tar Heels. As colleague Matt Fortuna astutely pointed out, North Carolina is the largest state by population that doesn’t contain a Big Ten or SEC team, and the state continues to grow fast. That’s a big potential audience down the road.
What, you ask, is the next-largest state that doesn’t contain a Big Ten or SEC school? It’s
Virginia. And the University of Virginia would be of interest to both leagues. This one is more of a prestige play than an audience play, though. Virginia isn’t as big a TV draw as in-state rival
Virginia Tech, but like most of the Big Ten schools and recent SEC addition Texas, it’s an academically prestigious flagship school in a large state.
Miami, meanwhile, is another academically strong school with a bankable football brand. It isn’t a member of the Association of American Universities — which includes 15 of the 16 current and future Big Ten schools, and the 16th (Nebraska) was a member when it joined — but neither is Notre Dame. Miami probably rates high enough on that side of the equation to satisfy Big Ten presidents, though. For the SEC, Miami would have to show it can bring in big TV numbers. Historically, the Hurricanes have done that when they’re good. When they aren’t, the ratings are pretty average.
Meanwhile, there are other schools that may be fits for one but not the other.
The Big Ten put out feelers to
Georgia Tech before the expansion that wound up with the addition of Nebraska, and it’s conceivable the league might want to plant a flag in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets left the SEC in 1964, so it’s safe to say they aren’t getting another shot there.
Clemson, meanwhile, is an SEC school in every way except conference affiliation. The
Tigers probably belong in the league more than any school that isn’t already in it. They are the ACC’s biggest TV draw at the moment, and they are one of the few programs that could enter the SEC and be immediately competitive for football championships.
Florida State turned down the SEC in the 1990s when that league added Arkansas and South Carolina. The Seminoles chose the ACC and dominated the league for their first decade in it. But much of the fan base and some influential alums have been frustrated with the ACC since even before the league forged the grant of rights in 2013. (Then-Florida State president Eric Barron was not one of those people; he helped rally support for the grant of rights.) If the leadership in Tallahassee could build a time machine, it would go back to 1990 and tell then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer yes. Failing that, they’d certainly want to join the SEC now. And while
Florida would balk at conferring SEC cachet upon its rival, there was a group of schools that wanted the Seminoles instead of
Missouri in 2012. Florida State needs to get off the mat in football, but it has shown it can be an incredible TV draw and championship contender when things are going well.
I mentioned Virginia Tech earlier, and while smarter people than me keep telling me the SEC would want Virginia, the Hokies feel like a better cultural fit. Blacksburg feels like an SEC town, and when Enter Sandman is blasting, Lane Stadium feels like an SEC environment.
When I mentioned North Carolina above, I didn’t mention NC State. I’ve long thought the
Wolfpack would thrive in the SEC. I’ve just always been told that most in the league would rather have the Tar Heels. But conference realignment also is a political game. What if North Carolina were blocked from leaving NC State behind and joining the Big Ten? Would the SEC be willing to offer membership to both? That would lock up a state that, as we noted above, is big now and only getting bigger by the day.
You’ve probably noticed at this point that I haven’t mentioned
Duke. I think if this had happened 10 years ago that I’d have Duke as a lock to get offered by the Big Ten and a possibility to be offered by the SEC. Now? I’m not sure. Duke football probably isn’t ever going to be a powerhouse, and basketball doesn’t drive these decisions. Mike Krzyzewski was such a powerful brand unto himself that he probably would have lifted the Blue Devils into contention for either league, but with Coach K retired, it’s difficult to figure out where Duke fits. Academically, the Big Ten schools likely would love the company. But do they want to take on another
Rutgers in football?
