MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[RVACane]

View attachment 249612

They need a Florida school and a Texas school.

 

[section9]

Well that's a bit unsettling.

We did not hire Rad so we could end up becoming the biggest baddest Mid-major in College Football.

I swear to God we’re going to get laughed out of every bar in Gainesville.

 

[ssvir]

Our ACC deal looks better than what Oregon and Washington got from the B1G. 30 mil a year increasing by 1 million a year until the TV contact runs out. If we left the ACC we would be worse off plus in massive debt for a decade.

I don't see the Big12 being anything but a renewed conference no longer dependent on 2 teams to matter. ACC is still better. The rest is hype.

The best thing we can do is make the ACC stronger.

Obviously ND but that won't happen. Adding Stanford and Cal makes sense academically. And they have had good storied programs. Plus that's good recruiting ground out there.

Also I don't care if FSU leaves. They'll be in huge debt that they won't pay off for decades and they would only be payed pennies on the dollar. I look forward to them dropping from the big 3.

Wow. Just wow.

 

[hurricane-warnings]

There are currently 34 P2 schools. Perfect world they'd go to 64. But realistically they can go to 40 hopefully 48 schools of football only league with equal revenue sharing from TV deal. 4 divisions of 10-12 teams maintaining some history of regional historical rivalries. Allow 1 game from schools outside the 48 P1s for history/rivalry/cupcake. 12 team playoff w/ 4 division winners w/ bye.

All other sports go back to normal conferences. No reason to travel from UCLA to Rutgers to play tennis.

Next 6: Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, Baylor & ND? 44 schools add NCst., VA, VT and Houston/TCU? Maybe?

 

[RVACane]

Wow. Just wow.

I don’t think some understand that the ACC is about to be a death sentence where any team serious about competing at the highest levels is going to be at a great disadvantage. ACC teams will struggle to recruit the top players there when the Big and SEC take over.

 

[305_separatist]

Our best hope is a breakout season to help with negotiations for an immediate post season move up. Otherwise, we’re cooked.

 

[Tru C]

Let me guess how this goes for the negative posters.

We get inundated with Miami is going to get left out, Miami is going to the Big 12 etc etc etc

And then when Miami ends up in either the BIG or SEC, they get to then say.

“I am happy to eat crow or I am ecstatic I was wrong.”

Thanks ahead of time.

 

[Empirical Cane]

I don’t think some understand that the ACC is about to be a death sentence where any team serious about competing at the highest levels is going to be at a great disadvantage. ACC teams will struggle to recruit the top players there when the Big and SEC take over.

NEGATIVE.

Miami has @Baba Yaga

POWER UP LEVEL UNLOCKED: Booooootaaaaaahhhy

Miami fuccin.

 

[Baba Yaga]

NEGATIVE.

Miami has @Baba Yaga

POWER UP LEVEL UNLOCKED: Booooootaaaaaahhhy

Miami fuccin.

 

[Santana Sosa]

Just some math for ESPN.

- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.

So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.

NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).

THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.

From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...

In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.

So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.

Thank you for taking the time to show your rationale.

 

[cocanes]

This is funny

 

[RVACane]

NEGATIVE.

Miami has @Baba Yaga

POWER UP LEVEL UNLOCKED: Booooootaaaaaahhhy

Miami fuccin.

Ain’t no booty saving us if we were sentenced to death by years more of ACC affiliation.

 

[Ispyin]

I don’t think some understand that the ACC is about to be a death sentence where any team serious about competing at the highest levels is going to be at a great disadvantage. ACC teams will struggle to recruit the top players there when the Big and SEC take over.

I think that’s the reason why the acc schools may announce before August 15 even if you don’t think you can make it to the new homes for two years or more, because they just don’t wanna have the negative recruiting at a minimum

 

[RVACane]

Just some math for ESPN.

- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.

So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.

NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).

THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.

From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...

In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.

So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.

Nice work, Cali!

When they said Cali only understands defending hilltops and west coast football, I told them no no no… you don’t know Cali. Cali understands exotic mushrooms, sprouts & shoots, tasty waves, cool buzz and Conference Mathz.

 

[RVACane]

I think that’s the reason why the acc schools may announce before August 15 even if you don’t think you can make it to the new homes for two years or more, because they just don’t wanna have the negative recruiting at a minimum

Is there a risk of breach of contract simply by announcing that??? Anyone???

 

[RVACane]

Never underestimate the pettiness of lawmakers

And you know there are power people who wield money and influence who are connected to those institutions and are in their ears.

 

[Rickd]

Well that's a bit unsettling.

It is NOT UNSETTLING REGARDING THE ASSESSMENT OF UM. If you read the index the S classification is for schools evaluated at a FULL MEDIA SHARE FOR THE B10. THAT IS MIAMI.

FSU is a take at a partial share, same as Oregon / Washington then a chance to move up to full share.

B - Partial Share permanently (Clemson, Stanford, Cal, UNC)
C = unlikely (UVA, Va Tech, Ga Tech

So ... it looks like Clemson / FSU better head to the SEC and Miami bails to the B10 with ND.

 

[Calinative]

This is a lot, but as far as I can tell you are only taking payouts into consideration, not how much revenue ESPN (or anyone else is making). As a very simple example, you can't just say if the ACC went away tomorrow that ESPN would 'save $560M' ($40M x 14 schools) b/c presumably ESPN is making a net profit on televising ACC games.

Is there a path where ESPN could pay Clemson, Miami, FSU, etc more money and still make additional profits b/c they no longer need to pay schools like Duke $40M a year? Maybe, but w/o knowing their take (or projected take) it is hard to do those calculations. They would also need to be able to get out of paying the schools not going to greener pastures.

Oh yeah I agree I'm not looking at ESPNs revenue, but unless we try to quantify the "value" that each of these programs actually brings we don't and won't know the profit ESPN is making off each program to do a better analysis.

The point though is whatever that profit is, will still be there if the ACC goes down, because its NOT REALLY ESPN losing valuable programs UNLESS they choose not to get involved in the Big10 at all if they get 4 members, And they also won't be spending more money period. Schools that move to the SEC you could say their Profit would reduce, HOWEVER they'd be in a lot more major games and in new markets, which could increase their profits off those programs... And if they chose to contribute the $40M and follow the ACC schools to the Big10, they'd actually likely profit even more for having bigger games on average.

If the mostly mid level ACC programs move to the Big12, ESPN will more than likely increase their profits on those programs too too, because their expenses are literally getting cut in half, yet are mostly playing the same level of competition except for a handful of games. But it is more national which will have an even broader audience. And obviously the programs they choose not to move into the Big12 - like a Wake or something, they're gaining by just straight up not having to pay at all, or significantly less...

 

[Rickd]

Have I had too much wine? That chart looks like Miami is S tier and above FL St?

Miami is the ONLY ONE that they have evaluated, along with ND, as warranting a full share from the outset. FSU would get a partial just like Oregon and Washington. Clemson ... partial share permanently. EDIT ... my error in reading the @Genetics tweet ... the chart is NOT the media eval but one guys eval and Gentics is correcting him stating that the media evaluation has FSU Clemson above Miami.

 

[Rickd]

yep

NO WAY ... do you understand that chart? The B10 has evaluated Miami and ND as schools that would get a full share upon joining while FSU would get a partial share for several years then have a chance to move up to full share. EDIT ... the chart was prepared by ONE GUY ... and is NOT the actual media evaluation. @Genetics corrected the guy in his comments above the chart .. he said the media eval actually had FSU / Clemson ABOVE Miami.