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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

Yoyo82 said:
IMO the B12 would be willing to take any and all of:

Louisville
Pitt
NC State
GT
VT
Maybe Duke because of basketball

That means only 3 or 4 other teams need to find homes in the B1G and SEC.

Miami
Clemson
FSU
UNC
[BGCOLOR=initial]are locks to leave [/BGCOLOR]

ND is a vote to dissolve

UVA would likely find a home in the SEC or B1G

The only real dissenters are probably:

WF
BC
Syracuse

Because they don't have an equivalent or better home to go to. They'd probably end up in the CUSA or something.
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They can go back to the Big Least..
 
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Zdog1004 said:
Facilitate 4 teams to the BIG10, 2 to the SEC and 2 to the BIG12 and the other 6 are left in the dust cuz the ACC dissolves after that.
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But you still need the math to workout for ESPN that they are making more money for them to be willing to do that. Maybe they could find a scenario, but my point is the post is only talking about payouts and not about revenue.
 
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SFbayCane said:
That's the best case scenario at this point. I was actually hoping for it.

My best guess now is that UM will end up in an "academic-based sports conference" with Stanford, Cal, Duke, Wake, and a few others. Now the whole 40K seat stadium thing makes sense.
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Come On Wtf GIF by FC Schalke 04
 
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Dacrowcane said:
Have I had too much wine? That chart looks like Miami is S tier and above FL St?
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He is replying to someone else who posted that chart... he is essentially saying the chart is not accurate (I believe the chart was just a guess put together by the person he is replying to).
 
If you listen to Genetics long enough he’ll tell you a little bit of everything at some point. I still laugh thinking about his report from a couple months ago that Fox and NBC were going to somehow split a 7 game package of Notre Dame games that produces one or two important matchups a year at best.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
Just some math for ESPN.

- Current ACC deal, ESPN pays average of just under $40M/yr/school and likely isn't going to be increasing much if at all over time. However with ACC entering into unequal revenue distribution that could see top Schools making $50M/yr, it is possible that the mid-bottom level schools receive closer to $30M/yr.
- Current Big 12 deal, ESPN pays $20M/school, while Fox pays $11.7M/school. I assume because it wasn't announced any of the PAC to Big12 movers are receiving reduced share all 16 are getting full shares. So these 4 moves represents an ADDITIONAL +$80M expense by ESPN who wasn't previously paying for an PAC members, and +$47M by Fox.
- Current Big 10 and SEC deals are estimated to payout at least like $70M/yr and getting up to $100M/yr by 2030.

So, with Big10 currently at 18 members, if they add just 4 more ACC schools, this would represent at least a +$280M/yr increase for Fox (well technically not just Fox, it'd also be CBS and NBC chipping in too), and a -$160M decrease for ESPN. If the SEC then adds at least 2 members, this would represent at least a +$60M/yr increase for ESPN.

NET so far (compared to last week), if 4 ACC schools move to Big10 and 2 move to SEC, we are at +$327M/yr spending for Fox, and -$20M by ESPN (so ESPN saving $20M).

THEN lets assume the Big12 wants to get up to 20 schools as well and decides to add 4 ACC members. This would represent a -$80M decrease for ESPN, and a +$46.8M increase for Fox.

From there will the remaining 4 ACC members still get $40M/yr payouts? **** no. They'd be lucky to get $20M/yr like the PAC had agreed to. So We can estimate that at worst ESPN would probably save another -$80M/yr, but possibly -$160M...

In total that would mean ESPN actually SAVES about $180M-$260M/yr from the ACC falling apart, and really are only losing the rights to the 4 programs choosing the Big10. Now technically if ESPN wanted to keep some of those programs under their fold they could offer to maintain their $40M/yr average distribution for those programs (joining the Big10 deal), and still save between $20M-100M/yr.

So my point in doing this is to show that FOR ESPN, this is more just rearranging things, possibly dropping the lowest programs, and even likely saving tens of millions along the way.
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One thing- unequal revenue distribution deal for acc has ZERO to do with espn media dollars. It’s from other revenue sources (keeping more for making final four for example or making a bowl or playoff vs equal split).

That’s actually one of the issues for fsu Miami and Clemson
 
Yoyo82 said:
So they make them sink together? If the ACC is on the verge of collapse and UVA has an invite to the SEC but VT doesn't, then the VA legislators make them both sit out?

What would they do then?
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I don’t know but government doesn’t always function logically because of politics and constituencies. That’s the driver.
 
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