MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

[Midlo Cane Fan]

 

[Alex Del Piero]

Maybe Rad was trying to

This feeds into what my theory was on what the teams that want to leave the ACC should do. They should approach the ACC and let them know they want to leave and if the ACC wants to continue existing they need to add new teams and renegotiate the gor to allow teams to leave. If the ACC were to add pac 10 teams then it could continue to exist even if Florida State Clemson and Miami as well as others left, and takes away the possibility of the ACC dissolving

I think that if those Pac-12 schools have enough value to make ESPN renegotiate that deal with ACC, Jim Phillips would have jumped on it a year ago.

I bet he tried to do that but got a big fat no from ESPN.

 

[Calinative]

I’ve said many times, ND has a very pious & pompous view of themselves. They love being the big fish in a small pond, regardless if it hurts them in various ways.

When most athletics were w/ Russell, ND chose Champion. When most athletics went Nike or Reebok, ND chose Adidas.
When most athletics went Nike or Adidas, ND chose UA
When most athletics went from Ind to a conference, ND chose to stay Ind.

This is their mantra; they need to feel this self importance which is y despite what happened w/ O$U, ND will always be my most hated, tied w/ UF. It boggles my mind they have an opportunity to step into the 21st century, & they r being dogmatic in trying to say Independent, EVEN if they lose an extra $75m-$100m over a 10 yr period in the process. That’s asinine to me, but that’s what ND does.

I hope it all backfires in their face & they r forced to come off that high horse.

They know they have the boosters to support what they want to do regardless. It won’t be until they are forced to join that they will.
The funny thing is the Big10 would probably be more likely to get ND to join sooner if they basically put an embargo on them. No USC game. No other sports joining. As long as they have a path to cfp independently they’ll stay Independent imo.

But if like a 12 team cfp had 5 Big10, 5SEC, and 2 others (Big12 + Independents)… which is probably how it should be… they’ll soon be on the outside looking in.

 

[Cane6]

This is the other contention, the B1G wanted and needed the LA market because Fox told them that's how to get more from their next media rights deal. When teams get outwardly thirsty then the league knows they can do a cut-rate deal because those schools need the conference more than the conference needs the school. FSU is gonna end up making nil after buying out the GOR then taking a cut-rate deal from the B10. Sit back, let them blow up the ACC, then let the leagues come to Miami on MIAMI'S terms. Otherwise we might as well stay in the ACC.

I’m blocking you

Leave my posts alone

 

[Squid Bumciorek]

Thats my prediction for the way it will go. ACC and Pac12 will merge to create their own coast to coast conference. That would force a change to the espn payout (obviously not going to just take the existing splits and dilute so each team gets less). And if espn refuses to deal, then it kills the GOR. It's the path of least resistance.

 

[Dream School]

Yes, and the "question to it" is not just my own thought process, though I express my opinions strongly and passionately.

But there is also legal scholarship out there that says the true "power" of the GOR-type agreements is not that they are "ironclad", but because everyone is scared to actually challenge the GORs in court.

Also...what could happen? Nobody really knows PROCEDURALLY.

Let's say UM and F$U put in notice, and are accepted by the Big 10 for 2024. WHAT IS ESPN GOING TO DO ABOUT IT? Show up to our first Big 10 home game with a camera crew and announcers and insist that they have the right to broadcast the game? Are they going to try to get an injunction? Demand specific performance?

I'm really not sure that anyone has actually THOUGHT ABOUT what ESPN would do to establish these "rights" that everyone seems to think are so ironclad...

It would be litigation that ends up in some deal where Greg Olsen and the rights to cricket in India get swapped for the remaining ACC inventory of those schools.

 

[Tony4Canes]

Thats my prediction for the way it will go. ACC and Pac12 will merge to create their own coast to coast conference. That would force a change to the espn payout (obviously not going to just take the existing splits and dilute so each team gets less). And if espn refuses to deal, then it kills the GOR. It's the path of least resistance.

I think both of you will be incorrect

 

[Calinative]

Thats my prediction for the way it will go. ACC and Pac12 will merge to create their own coast to coast conference. That would force a change to the espn payout (obviously not going to just take the existing splits and dilute so each team gets less). And if espn refuses to deal, then it kills the GOR. It's the path of least resistance.

How would merging with the PAC who was just offered a $20M/school/yr deal increase the ACC "Magnificent 7" payout? It wouldn't. You need 3/4ths vote to approve new members. That's 12 votes. So if only 4 vote no - FSU, Clemson, Miami, and one more because they are the most dissatisfied with the current distributions then that isn't going anywhere.

Maybe offering only Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, and like ASU would work - paying them only $31M matching their Big12 offer. Then the difference in value goes directly to Miami, FSU, and Clemson... But the rest of PAC is dead weight

But we're right back to the problem ESPN doesn't have the money or timeslots for this. They already have 2/3rd of BIG12 to support and full SEC. There is a reason they didn't bid on PAC. They can't.

 

[Rickd]

Maybe, I was hoping that that would have already happened behind the scenes (maybe it has

This is the other contention, the B1G wanted and needed the LA market because Fox told them that's how to get more from their next media rights deal. When teams get outwardly thirsty then the league knows they can do a cut-rate deal because those schools need the conference more than the conference needs the school. FSU is gonna end up making nil after buying out the GOR then taking a cut-rate deal from the B10. Sit back, let them blow up the ACC, then let the leagues come to Miami on MIAMI'S terms. Otherwise we might as well stay in the ACC.

FSU, if they go to the B10, will get a full share. They are a coveted program due to meeting all of the viewership / TV math metrics. Totally different from Oregon / Washington who are most likely going in on a half share basis for some time.

 

[Brickell]

I can't see the SEC doing nothing while the Big-10 expands into a super-conference with Oregon, Washington, plus others.

If somehow we aren't in the Big 10, I find it hard to believe the SEC won't be more than happy to add us (despite the protestations of the University of Florida).

 

[Rickd]

How would merging with the PAC who was just offered a $20M/school/yr deal increase the ACC "Magnificent 7" payout? It wouldn't. You need 3/4ths vote to approve new members. That's 12 votes. So if only 4 vote no - FSU, Clemson, Miami, and one more because they are the most dissatisfied with the current distributions then that isn't going anywhere.

Maybe offering only Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, and like ASU would work - paying them only $31M matching their Big12 offer. Then the difference in value goes directly to Miami, FSU, and Clemson... But the rest of PAC is dead weight

But we're right back to the problem ESPN doesn't have the money or timeslots for this. They already have 2/3rd of BIG12 to support and full SEC. There is a reason they didn't bid on PAC. They can't.

The PAC programs were offered a deal based strictly on a streaming deal ... ESPN can offer a deal based on OTA TV ... totally different. Having said that, not sure if the numbers would come close to the B12. Another case of the ACC acting too late.

 

[AuoraCane]

They know they have the boosters to support what they want to do regardless. It won’t be until they are forced to join that they will.
The funny thing is the Big10 would probably be more likely to get ND to join sooner if they basically put an embargo on them. No USC game. No other sports joining. As long as they have a path to cfp independently they’ll stay Independent imo.

But if like a 12 team cfp had 5 Big10, 5SEC, and 2 others (Big12 + Independents)… which is probably how it should be… they’ll soon be on the outside looking in.

But NBC wouldn't allow them to do that because they get revenues for games played at ND. And Fox would get the broadcast rights when the BIG game is played outside of South Bend. Both Fox and NBC are in on the BIG media deal. ND has lots of leverage.

 

[Alex Del Piero]

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Fox and ESPN or both owned by Disney which is a sinking ship

I believe Disney purchased the Fox MOVIE content, and maybe even some of the TV SHOWS, but they did not acquire the Fox broadcast network, or Fox Sports.

Big 10 will be on the Fox network, plus FS1 and FS2.

 

[CaneInMD]

I can't see the SEC doing nothing while the Big-10 expands into a super-conference with Oregon, Washington, plus others.

If somehow we aren't in the Big 10, I find it hard to believe the SEC won't be more than happy to add us (despite the protestations of the University of Florida).

I heard something on the ride into work this morning on SiriusXM college channel about the SEC starting talks about adding teams. I can't remember what sports journalist the show was referencing. Wasn't much talk about it though. Just a short little clip. Who knows how true or false a lot of the current information out there is.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Not in my feels at all, simply stating facts. I don’t know what it’s like to be an elderly cuck in a basement like you do pretending that I know people. But hey, if that makes you feel better cause you can’t get your **** up anymore, knock yourself out.

You must be a Gaytor fan. You are obsessed with my **** and the ****s of others.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

I’d say you don’t know what the **** you’re talking about

I'd say you are not long for this board.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Fox sports isn't owned by Disney, although FOX has its own different money issue it is facing. Either way, personally, I don't think money is really an issue. Football tv makes money in the US. Espn/disney have made poor decisions but they still have money. Something that isn't really mentioned is that Disney is always willing to cut something out they invested in if it is not making expected returns. Even if they lose money in the short term. ACCN to me might become an example of this. I can't imagine espn makes much off it when you take into account its costs. So, yes, although they have cheap value, would espn be better off cutting those costs and flipping some if that to more sec games, even if sec games cost more? I'm sure they're crunching those figures.

B1G/SEC are playing the long game. We heard hiw B1G was not interested I Oregon and Washington. Now that pac12 is falling apart those programs are getting more desperate and, if rumors are true, willing to take lesser shares. This could be good value for B1G. It makes sense why they wouldnt consider these schools until pac12 deal was revealed. B1G has even more leverage. If Arizona schools, Utah leave, Oregon and Washington's only real choice is full Big 12 deal or less than full B1G deal. This would also vause acc teams to make decisions more quickly, giving B1G, SEC more leverage.

And Disney has already approached a couple of professional leagues about taking an EQUITY stake in a spun-off ESPN. I would imagine that they'd be willing to offer that same deal to the SEC, but for the SEC's need to make annual cash distributions to member schools. So it's a tougher sell to "pay" the SEC a huge amount in ESPN stock instead of cash.

 

[gibby013]

I'd say you are not long for this board.

Oh no

 

[TheOriginalCane]

Wait wait wait, so if Thamel's information is correct, that would mean that Washington and Oregon are NOT "already vetted and approved".

Hmmm, and people were wondering why I said that certain schools were LYING to create a false impression that everybody wanted them to join their various conferences...

Hilarious.