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MEGA Conference Realignment and lawsuits Megathread: Stories, Tales, Lies, and Exaggerations

NorthernVirginiaCane said:
No, I keep up. The Miami and Clemson
fans are in denial. Most of the ACC boards with the heavy lawyer nerds don't see it happening. Extremely unlikely.

* Zero ACC teams will vote for dissolution to go to the Big 12. The ACC is better. I think most would vote if they had an ironclad offer for the SEC/Big. But the #s aren't there yet. Maybe in 5 years, not now.

* I think it unlikely North Carolina or Virginia regents would allow Carolina or UVA to leave without their little brothers. Completely different systems than U California.

* not even convinced the SEC is in a hurry to grow more at all. The playoff money will be huge with their bids and no need to split that pie further. Big10 definitely wants to grow.

* waiting on better reporting on how many schools need to vote to dissolve. I've read North Carolina law is simple majority, but that would be super unusual for this kind of membership organization to not have 3/4 or similar supermajority criteria in its organizational charter. Has there been a leak or is 50% just speculation?

*ESPN has a great deal with the ACC and won't want it blown up.

*given the GOR, IMO, I think it more likely that the ACC hobbies along in third place, moves to more unequal distributions, and tries to find a way to shed Wake or BC through certain new arbitrary qualifications to keep football membership. Some of those smaller schools may not want to compete as it goes to 100% pay to play.

*if the money was closer ($10mm delta, not $30mm), most acc schools will prefer the easier path in the ACC, plus the presidents like the acc academics way more than the SEC.

I do love the discussion here but it seems more hope/cope than realistic.
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I mean at minimum you got ND, Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA, and imo VTech who are locks for SEC/B10 eventually . Even if ND doesn't plan on signing with the B10 asap, it doesn't hurt them to vote to dissolve the conference - and they do have a vote. And judging by the fact they didn't even show up at the last conference meeting, they clearly will vote that way.

So we are literally 1 vote away if we need 8. NCSt and GTech aren't out of realm of possibility for getting in either SEC or B10 as well eventually. Louisville and Pitt are locks to get invited to B12 whose media deal isn't all that much worse, and is much more stable at the moment.

The only real hesitancy I have to saying the ACC dissolving asap is timing. I don't think the SEC really wants to add 4 more schools by 2026. B10 seems more willing to do so. But then again doing this all at once could save the schools+Conferences Hundreds of millions in payouts to ESPN to get their media rights back (or saving millions taking it to court - which is obviously no guarantee). Like these conference would obviously prefer not having to loan out tens/hundred of millions to get these schools if they don't have to. And if say 4 schools annoucned they were leaving by 2026, what does that do for the rest of the ACC teams? You think they're going to want to stick around for a truly sinking ship? Once the first domino falls, the ACC is over.

Regardless, even in a scenario we we did have to pay to leave, anything <$200M, and it is worth leaving ASAP. That difference will be paid off in like 5 years... We have 13 years remaining on the GOR, so that would be obviously worth it and result in like a net $300M+ gain.
 
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I'm not sure what the most likely scenario is.

But I know one thing that is 100% true. The ACC won't exist in current state for the next 12 years. THAT is the least likely outcome.
 
NorthernVirginiaCane said:
No, I keep up. The Miami and Clemson
fans are in denial. Most of the ACC boards with the heavy lawyer nerds don't see it happening. Extremely unlikely.

* Zero ACC teams will vote for dissolution to go to the Big 12. The ACC is better. I think most would vote if they had an ironclad offer for the SEC/Big. But the #s aren't there yet. Maybe in 5 years, not now.

* I think it unlikely North Carolina or Virginia regents would allow Carolina or UVA to leave without their little brothers. Completely different systems than U California.

* not even convinced the SEC is in a hurry to grow more at all. The playoff money will be huge with their bids and no need to split that pie further. Big10 definitely wants to grow.

* waiting on better reporting on how many schools need to vote to dissolve. I've read North Carolina law is simple majority, but that would be super unusual for this kind of membership organization to not have 3/4 or similar supermajority criteria in its organizational charter. Has there been a leak or is 50% just speculation?

*ESPN has a great deal with the ACC and won't want it blown up.

*given the GOR, IMO, I think it more likely that the ACC hobbies along in third place, moves to more unequal distributions, and tries to find a way to shed Wake or BC through certain new arbitrary qualifications to keep football membership. Some of those smaller schools may not want to compete as it goes to 100% pay to play.

*if the money was closer ($10mm delta, not $30mm), most acc schools will prefer the easier path in the ACC, plus the presidents like the acc academics way more than the SEC.

I do love the discussion here but it seems more hope/cope than realistic.
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Lol by far the best part of this is the "ACC Boards with the heavy lawyer nerds don't see it happening." Have drafted assignments for decades though!! Absolutely clueless.

I am worried about securing an invite from one of the big 2, not what some message board "lawyer" who probably is not even a lawyer thinks about the GOR. Good lord.
 
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NorthernVirginiaCane said:
No, I keep up. The Miami and Clemson
fans are in denial. Most of the ACC boards with the heavy lawyer nerds don't see it happening. Extremely unlikely.

* Zero ACC teams will vote for dissolution to go to the Big 12. The ACC is better. I think most would vote if they had an ironclad offer for the SEC/Big. But the #s aren't there yet. Maybe in 5 years, not now.

* I think it unlikely North Carolina or Virginia regents would allow Carolina or UVA to leave without their little brothers. Completely different systems than U California.

* not even convinced the SEC is in a hurry to grow more at all. The playoff money will be huge with their bids and no need to split that pie further. Big10 definitely wants to grow.

* waiting on better reporting on how many schools need to vote to dissolve. I've read North Carolina law is simple majority, but that would be super unusual for this kind of membership organization to not have 3/4 or similar supermajority criteria in its organizational charter. Has there been a leak or is 50% just speculation?

*ESPN has a great deal with the ACC and won't want it blown up.

*given the GOR, IMO, I think it more likely that the ACC hobbies along in third place, moves to more unequal distributions, and tries to find a way to shed Wake or BC through certain new arbitrary qualifications to keep football membership. Some of those smaller schools may not want to compete as it goes to 100% pay to play.

*if the money was closer ($10mm delta, not $30mm), most acc schools will prefer the easier path in the ACC, plus the presidents like the acc academics way more than the SEC.

I do love the discussion here but it seems more hope/cope than realistic.
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The ACC agreement that was shared at one point on this forum CLEARLY states that the vote for dissolution is a simple majority. There ARE certain issues that require 3/4 ... admission of specific new members and several other issues. The 50% is NOT just speculation. And yes there ARE at least a couple programs that might prefer the B12 to the ACC. Especially as the B12 has a strong focus on becoming THE basketball conference. Louisville and Syracuse might be content to be part of the B12 and it was stated last month that the B12 had already extended and invite to Louisville. The SEC might prefer to stand by on immediate expansion but they won't just stand by and watch the B10 poach every major $$$ and market program ... they will at least in a defensive mode grab 2-4 programs. So you could easily have the B10 take 4, the B12 take 2 and the SEC by just taking 2 ... gives the 8 programs required to dissolve the ACC conference. It will happen. And not in 6 years or more ... soon.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
You're the one citing all the legal authorities you read about on other ACC websites.

Ooooh, you've been "drafting assignments for decades". What a joke. You haven't even seen the GOR, but I know someone who has. And the simple reality is that there is no consideration for the extension of the Grant of Rights. The ACC Network deal was already done, so there was no reason to convey rights for a TV deal that had already been struck.

You should know the routine by now. No consideration, no contract.

But, please, tell me about all the collegiate conference Grant of Rights agreements that have been upheld and enforced by the courts. I'll wait. Oh right, there are no precedents. I realize that a lot of schools have been SCARED to challenge a GOR in court, but that will be much easier with this pile of **** agreement. It's unenforceable. You'll see.
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With a vote to dissolve the ACC Conference ... the GOR simply becomes a document in an archive.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
True. Two approaches.
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There was an interesting youtube broadcast in which Tony Siracusa, Director of The Last Word on College Football based in Charlotte NC, was interviewed (July 6, 2022 interview) by Mark Rogers, UCLA Insider.

At 29.05 into the interview discussing football realignment in general he was asked how air tight the ACC GOR was. His response "We have read most of the GOR document and it is A MALLEABLE DOCUMENT and contains certain loopholes, performance requirements, and competitive revenue clauses ... in several of the agreements with major programs. Not all agreements are the same but several of the more important football programs in the ACC DO have competitive revenue clauses that would permit them to work around the GOR and leave the conference". He specifically mentioned Clemson "yes Clemson has a competitive revenue clause and so do several others". Radakovich was the AD at Clemson and he was reportedly working "joined at the hip" with the Clemson AD in developing the exist strategy from the ACC.

Two approaches most likely being advanced simultaneously:

1). "get around" the GOR based on the competitive revenue clauses to enable programs leaving to simply pay the $120 million exit fee and maintain 100% of their media rights.

2). Get 8 programs united with confirmed landing spots and vote to dissolve the ACC.

Either way ... adios ACC for the 2026 season and on.
 
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calinative umstudent said:
Regardless, even in a scenario we we did have to pay to leave, anything <$200M, and it is worth leaving ASAP. That difference will be paid off in like 5 years... We have 13 years remaining on the GOR, so that would be obviously worth it and result in like a net $300M+ gain.
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This is the key. At some point, the Net Present Value to Miami will be higher to make the move. The numbers have been run and Miami knows when they are leaving (at the latest. The other scenarios make it happen sooner). The only chance the ACC has is ESPN renegotiates which is very unlikely.
 
Rickd said:
Either way ... adios ACC for the 2026 season and on.
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Fall 2026 is the time to have any additional SEC and B1G schools in place (as well as whatever's left of the Big XII, ACC and Pac-12 conferences).

The upcoming 12-team CFP format expires after the 2025 season.

By absorbing more of College Football's top brands and expanding to 20 or 24 schools, the SEC and B1G will, collectively, have an even greater say-so in the postseason configuration and how its massive revenue dollars are disbursed.

Again, like others have said, Miami needs to do whatever it takes to be gone to either the SEC or the BIG by the '26 football season
 
AuoraCane said:
This is the key. At some point, the Net Present Value to Miami will be higher to make the move. The numbers have been run and Miami knows when they are leaving (at the latest. The other scenarios make it happen sooner). The only chance the ACC has is ESPN renegotiates which is very unlikely.
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I think that ESPN (Disney) wants the ACC to go away and lump those other school sin with current contracts that they already have just so that they can stay afloat. They have too many movies bombing t the box office, closed that Star Wars Hotel, and are offering deep deep discounts to get people back to the parks to spend money. Disney is hurting.
 
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AuoraCane said:
This is the key. At some point, the Net Present Value to Miami will be higher to make the move. The numbers have been run and Miami knows when they are leaving (at the latest. The other scenarios make it happen sooner). The only chance the ACC has is ESPN renegotiates which is very unlikely.
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Just imo:

The ACC's so-called "Magnificent 7" weren't planning their eventual exits (and that's really the objective) without touching base beforehand with current and potential media partners and the two destination conferences (SEC and B1G). Basically: "If the GoR is null and void, what are our options?"

ESPN's No. 1 concern isn't the cost of bumping up ACC schools to the SEC pro rata share (roughly a $25M-30M increase annually per school), but rather seeing valuable brands that fit the SEC leave instead for the B1G and FOX/CBS/NBC.

ESPN has the power to broker a peaceful break-up of the ACC by "helping" transition schools (depending on their value/best fit) to either the SEC or the Big XII, knowing that there would be some horse trading with the B1G/FOX over Notre Dame and very possibly Miami.

Getting P5-level realignment settled and in place by the 2026 season could be a huge win for ESPN and FOX (and CBS and NBC, too) in terms of being the primary media partners for the new CFP contract that will kick in that December
 
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The ACC had all the leverage required to force Notre Dame to fully join the conference during the COVID season. Instead, they allowed them to join for one year. They needed the ACC, the ACC didn't need them, yet the commissioner dropped the ball on that one. With Notre Dame in tow, the ACC could have possibly renegotiated but now the conference is basically dead in the water.
 
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dirtyred786 said:
The ACC had all the leverage required to force Notre Dame to fully join the conference during the COVID season. Instead, they allowed them to join for one year. They needed the ACC, the ACC didn't need them, yet the commissioner dropped the ball on that one. With Notre Dame in tow, the ACC could have possibly renegotiated but now the conference is basically dead in the water.
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ND is a full voting member of the ACC and they want out as much as UM does. That will vote for the dissolution of the conference - we are allies in that regard.
 
dirtyred786 said:
The ACC had all the leverage required to force Notre Dame to fully join the conference during the COVID season. Instead, they allowed them to join for one year. They needed the ACC, the ACC didn't need them, yet the commissioner dropped the ball on that one. With Notre Dame in tow, the ACC could have possibly renegotiated but now the conference is basically dead in the water.
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Sike. The ACC has never had leverage on ND, and never will.
 
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