ACC tie breaker

[Poptimus]

Updated after last weeks games: Clemson holds a half game lead over Miami with conference opponent's in-conference record of 16-21, Miami's at 16-22, and SMU 2.5 back from Miami at 13-24.

I actually went through and assumed the 3 teams win out at 8-0 and then took the FPI prediction for all other games - that actually results in Miami with a strong lead for the 1 seed and Clemson being left out.

According to FPI predictions - Miami opponents would end up at 28-36 (43%), Clemson opponents would end up at 24-40 (38%), and SMU opponents would end up at 25-39 (39%).

Some key shake up games for the 3 team race down the stretch are: Clemson vs the 3 remaining teams on their schedule (VT, Louisville, Pitt), SMU/Pitt - obviously any loss in those games makes it irrelevant, GT/NCST, Syracuse/BC, and Cal/Syracuse.

Just the way the schedules shake out and the overlap down the stretch, I'm sure it's mathematically possible, but it seems like a very slim chance Miami is the one left out. Not a lot of H2H of uncommon opponents left and lots of games are a clean wash of a .500 net result on your schedule regardless of the winner.

Interesting question.. would you rather see Clemson or SMU in the ACCCG?

This is spot on. Mathematically, the odds that Miami, Clemson, and SMU all finish undefeated in conference play is very low. It is the equivalent of needing an 11-game moneyline parlay to hit, since 11 ACC games would need to all go one way.

However, even if it was to happen, a 2.5 game edge over SMU - which as you note Miami has now - is HUGE. I can’t get into quantifying the permutations but I would venture a guess the odds of Miami, Clemson, and SMU going undefeated in conference play AND a 2.5 game deficit being made up by SMU’s non-common ACC opponents versus ours, is somewhere in the <5% odds range.