Upon Further Review: Miami vs. Florida

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Lance Roffers

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Going into year three of the Mario Cristobal era many Canes fans were hopeful but cautious in their expectations for this season. It has been the better part of two decades since Miami was truly relevant on the national landscape in football. After this Saturday in the swamp, it’s probably time to unleash the angst that has weighed on the collective hearts of this fanbase. And if you’re a Gator fan, that realization probably has you looking like this:

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But how did it look on...

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Great effort from Harris here, who initially is pushed wide, but he retraces and gets a sack on the QB.
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There will be a game where these bounces, close calls, etc. don’t go Miami’s way and that’ll be the game Miami has to grind one out, because variance doesn't always smile on you. That said, it has been years since Miami has had a QB who make the plays this guy makes for us.
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3rd & 10 and Ward with an absolute dot to Horton. Brown has been touted by everyone who will listen, but Horton was the better player in this one.



RayRay Joseph drops a rocket that would’ve gone for a first down. (Not pictured)

This was bad from Rodriguez, who struggled more than I thought on first watch. Miami has a line shift right, with 76 & 64 responsible for two down on left, 21 for the LB. For reasons I don’t know, Rodriguez guesses he’s going inside and the DT goes outside. You can see Rodriguez’ base was way too narrow and the weight is on his right leg. Look at 73 for a better base example. Ward makes a play, but LG wasn’t our brightest spot today.
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Just an iconic picture. Florida dude doing the Homer Simpson gif into the bushes, the recruits faces full of disgust for Florida, laughing at the filthy play by Ward, and then Miami players looking like a throwback to the Cotton Bowl against Texas. What a moment.
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On back-to-back plays Florida tries to block Tyler Baron with a TE who can’t block. It went as you’d expect. Domination for Baron and if I were a Florida fan (gross), I’d be upset. I’d also wonder why my team has NEVER gone undefeated, but that’s a story for another time. (Not pictured)

Florida has started to run the “look for 25” offense and throw it to whomever 25 is covering. There were mixed results, but for the most part, 25 struggled to have sticky coverage in this game. (Not pictured)

Malik Bryant with bad eyes here. Stops looking at QB before he sees ball exchange.
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This play was supposed to go outside, but Harris does a great job of staying wide in his rush and Bryant sets an actual edge. RB has to cut back and right into Mauigoa. Beautiful.
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My buddy Cribby was telling me that live he thought Mertz was late on this throw that was picked by Powell, but he’s separating pretty early here. I think he just didn’t have the arm to get it there and Mish saw it the whole way. Now, the return should’ve been a TD if he would’ve slowed up and let his blocker take the last defender, but there’s a reason he doesn’t play offense I suppose. Anthony Campbell in and giving nice snaps this game. Chase Smith and his length didn’t make this throw any easier for Mertz. Never want to see a kid get hurt, so I’m not happy about that. Looked like he got inadvertently hit in the head by Campbell.
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Brown has to catch this, but Brown was also telling Restrepo to loft that ball more. If Restrepo has any touch, it’s an easy TD. Miami didn’t score on this drive, despite a chance to score for Powell and Brown, then a missed FG. This game score could’ve been much worse. Brown flubbed this play, nearly fumbled that was overturned, had a poor effort on a 1-on-1 deep ball against a S, and was soft on a reception at the goal line. Just a poor game from #11. Film doesn’t lie, it’s not personal.
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See, Richard wasn’t bad in this game. He was just being targeted relentlessly. I don’t mind this coverage, but a better ball and catch.
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It really is “where’s 25?”
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Awesome run by the Florida player, making Mauigoa overrun the play. But the real point of this one is that Justin Scott absolutely forces a hold not called here. This isn’t a swim move, where the OL can grab, this is Scott changing directions and the OL not being athletic enough to keep up and just grabbing him. It’s early, but the returns on that kid look good.
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This is what it normally looks like when a C tries to block a NT 1-on-1. Moten just eats his soul and gets a TFL. Moten tackles #8 and the RB behind him. Woah, that’s a play.
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From there it was backups and running out the string.

By the Numbers:

Overall, this was a good ole fashion rear-end kicking. The final numbers are dominant, but not as dominant when it got to 38-10 and Miami took their foot off-the-gas.

  • 0.13 Expected Points per Attempt (70th percentile)
  • Florida at -0.19 (17th percentile)
  • Miami had five explosive plays, to Florida’s three
  • Miami accumulated 81% of the available yards on their offensive drives, which is an astronomical number. Florida accumulated 52% (not horrific).
  • Defensively, Miami had a 44% Stop Rate, where Florida only had 9%!
  • Total, in this game, Miami was +10.47 expected points, while Florida was -5.32 expected points
  • Miami: 9.28 Offensive, -1.64 Special Teams, 2.84 Penalty
  • Florida: -10.47 Offensive, 2.56 Special Teams, 2.58 Penalty
Overall:

This was a game all of us in Hurricane nation have been hoping for. It wasn’t a game where the stars aligned and everything went right for Miami at home. It was a game on the road against an SEC rival that was going to give everything they had and Miami was just clearly the more talented team. From start to finish, this was a whooping.

The theme of the day was Miami’s evaluations in the transfer portal.
  • Cam Ward was a long saga that gave many of us fatigue. In the end, Ward was everything they said and then some.
  • Tyler Baron was a menace. He simply wrecked the Florida OL and that poor RT will assuredly be going pro in something other than sports after scouts watch this tape.
  • Mish Powell was what we needed to stabilize the backend of the defense at S.
  • Simeon Barrow made his presence felt.
  • Damien Martinez looks like NCAA Le’Veon Bell with his patience and power.
  • Carpenter at C giving Miami another year of great play at the pivot.
This game was about development:
  • Elijah Arroyo looks every bit the part of the next great Miami TE.
  • The OL has depth and power.
  • Fletcher looks great. The game thread had a lot of criticism for him, but I didn’t see that on film at all.
  • Ahmad Moten and a cadre of DT’s behind him.
There were warts, no doubt about it, but I don’t have any complaints about this game, as Miami looks to compete for the college playoffs this season.

Welcome back to true Miami football, oh have I missed you.
 

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Going into year three of the Mario Cristobal era many Canes fans were hopeful but cautious in their expectations for this season. It has been the better part of two decades since Miami was truly relevant on the national landscape in football. After this Saturday in the swamp, it’s probably time to unleash the angst that has weighed on the collective hearts of this fanbase. And if you’re a Gator fan, that realization probably has you looking like this:

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But how did it look on film? Was it worth the hype? Read along with me and find out here at Upon Further Review.

Miami gets on the board with TE-leak with a mesh concept. McCormick actually fakes a block twice. It’s that second fake that gets him open. Defenders are taught keys to see after that initial contact with your receiver when you’re covering a TE. When he engaged that second time, it broke their keys and caused the defender to move his eyes.

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Will never deny my biases, but how does one watch Miami play football and not recognize how incredibly important Xavier Restrepo is to the offense? He is legitimately the straw that stirs this drink outside of the QB. NFL talent we can debate, but this kid is a first-rate, All-American type college player.



Bissainthe is looking to get outside to that fake to #1 and runs into Porter, who is carrying the shallow cross. Somewhere in the coverage they missed a rule. Frederique is supposed to carry the motion man ****, but lets him get leverage on him. Side note: great job of resetting the edge for Barron at the top. If he doesn’t reset that edge and this had been a handoff, with the two defenders running into each other, that edge would’ve been unprotected. Not the best defensive rep.
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In this game Miami really sent a lot of pressure. They mugged the LOS quite a bit with simulated pressure looks, but actually brought most or all of them many times in this game. The Florida RT really struggled in this game and had a tendency to get out over his skies quite a bit. Getting beaten on the edge by Ahmad Moten is not a great look. Florida slides and picks this one up pretty well, Badger beats Damari Brown, but it’s nice coverage and just a nice play by the offense. With time, Mertz is a pretty accurate QB who can make this throw.
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Miami left Damari Brown 1-on-1 against Badger multiple times in this game and he responded well. This is a difficult play for a CB to keep their hands from grabbing. You see the ball and know it’s just you and you get impatient. Nice job.
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You remember old Madden games where you’d accidentally switch off of a player and they’d stop moving? The RT must’ve been switched off here because he goes completely flat-footed on the Alston spin move here. Mertz wants that hitch to the top of the screen but Alston wins quickly and forces the checkdown. Great job by Bissainthe to make the tackle in space.
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Miami runs HB-leak-RPO to Arroyo here. It’s subtle design, but you can see it has good setup. #3 is supposed to carry any in-breaking routes into his zone (this route clears him out). So he has his eyes on Brown, then #34 expects Arroyo to block him here, which again has the defense slow to react (#10 has to play run first then retrace). Ward correctly pulls it and throws it to Arroyo for a 1st down. I’m a big data believer and this may not seem like an especially big play, but the expected points for an offense is actually negative when you’re inside your own 10. The reason being that if the defense stops you and you have to kick, it’s nearing FG already for them. Getting this 1st down and establishing a bit of normalcy to field position is a good reason to use a well-designed play in this spot. I almost see it similar to a red-zone possession, that’s how important it is to get out of those backed up spots within a game (to me and to the math).
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We are all going to have to accept that this is the mentality of Ward and that is one of the reasons he’s great. It will also open him up to some plays like this one where instead of just running and taking a few yards (assuming he can’t outrun #24), he looks for the big play. I’m more fine with this type of play towards the middle/opposite ends of the field. Understanding the field situation is a next step in Ward’s development. Instead, he tries to throw it back across the middle and gets picked.
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Tough rep for Fletcher here, he’s trying to get out into a pass route and instead runs into his LG, knocks him off-balance and knocks himself down. When Ward scrambles left, both of these two WR’s break off to that direction and that’s where Ward was trying to go. Initial pressure from Carpenter’s man caused Ward to drop his eyes, when he did he saw the LG getting beat and bailed.
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I stop this play here just to show you the quickness and explosiveness of Mesidor. Florida brings in an extra OL to play TE to that side with the zone run going to the opposite side. Mesidor makes this tackle on the opposite side where Barrow is engaged with #57. This is an NFL level play.

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This is art. 31 carries the RB. #1 drops to a spot and locates a WR with eyes on QB scramble. Slot CB in sail technique with enough depth to influence a corner route. #15 is the real highlight here. He’s got #8 with a two-way go. The job here is stay deeper and then react to what the receiver does. Because of the space available, you have to keep leverage to the middle of the field (MOF) and then use the sideline as another defender. You just have to mirror the receiver and this is exactly what he does. He looks like one of those synchronized swimmers with the receivers gait.
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A big RB who can stick their foot and bounce this all the way around RT is pretty nice. LG position hasn’t been a Florida RT level disaster, but it’s certainly been the weakness.
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Carpenter and Cooper with the pin-and-pull as Martinez bounces it. Cooper does a good job of making sure he seals the gap first, then trying to get outside. If Cooper gets wide, then the LB has a gap to shoot. Carpenter gave up his chest, but got the job done. Then Cooper does just enough to get in the way as Martinez finishes a long run.

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The separator’s for Ward amongst the gunslinger types you see struggle are the quick release and the ability to see the field. He sees this cat blitz off the corner then throws it right into the vacated spot. As a QB, you are looking into a blitz, not away from it.
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We heard whispers from the outside about concern over Carpenter replacing Matt Lee, but thus far he has been a rock. Trying to anchor and lock-out against these DT’s is not something many C’s can do, but here he gives Ward all day to wait for Restrepo to clear the LB, have the outside WR clear the coverage, then get back to the sideline.
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Here, Lofton is running a shallow cross and their best defensive player (#10) tries to get physical and Lofton just shoves him down like little brother. When he gets up, he trails Lofton and then #3 also takes him, which leaves #2 open to just sit down for Ward to throw across his body for a nice gain.
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I don’t have any issues with this play call. Could #6 have hesitated half a beat and not release immediately? Probably so, but this is such a good job of mirroring and tracking the RB through trash by #10. Something they will probably remember about this is how fast he vacated though. #3 was wide open if #6 blocks instead of going into the pattern. I'd like Ward to hold the Mike a little more by looking frontside for just a second before getting back to #6, but he knew he was hot on an unblocked defender.
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There was mostly good from #7, but there was plenty to grow from as well. Here, he jumps the outside for reasons I do not understand. He is not the force player here, #11 is. He is responsible for that B gap and completely vacates it. Too easy.
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This is something that I believe is such an underrated skill for DT’s. Can you find the ball while being blocked? Initial double-team that Ahmad Moten fights off (and knocks a Florida OL to the ground), then recovers from that initial jolt and finds the ball in the hole. If he doesn’t do so, this is a first down because they got to the second level. It was a critique I had of Taylor, who would often get into the backfield, but never find the ball and make a play. This was excellent.
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You can’t play #65 if you’re Florida. They brought in a transfer RT expecting him to start, but he couldn’t beat out 65. Look at his feet, this is not a base. Look at his weight out over his toes, with arms low. Baron beats him cleanly here and blows up this 4th down play. On top of it, he holds on this play. Jaden Harris almost intercepts the pass and that’s nice for stats, but it was better for Miami to knock it down.
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It’s honestly unusual for a C to stand and block a NT 1-on-1 in pass protection because eventually just the sheer size will overwhelm the C and get into the face of the QB. Carpenter eventually gives up a pressure, but gives a bunch of time for this route to develop downfield. This is an elite throw. There aren’t 10 QB’s in America who can make this throw in college. This is, quite simply, an offensive cheat code. Over a LB, in front of a S, with a giant NT in your face.
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This needs to be a TD. Ward goes for that low-angle sling throw, when simply a little loft into a wide-open MOF would be an easy TD.
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Restrepo even tells him so after the play (I promise I didn’t know he did that when writing this, it happened after I wrote the above). He’s doing the “arc” motion to illustrate more loft.
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Next play, Riley Williams is blocking a 6-4, 249 pound edge player in the run game. Bring Sam Brown across on the wham. TD. The kickout block from Brown is nice, no doubt, but this play is made because Williams can hold this block. McCormick gets to the second level and makes a nice block as well.
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Big play by Chase Smith to knock this down, because it was going to be a big play for Florida otherwise. Smith makes the tackle on the next snap as well, a little tunnel screen.
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Mertz doesn’t see that #11 drops into coverage. We mugged six at the LOS and dropped two out. Mertz almost throws a pick trying to hit a WR behind that TE who is engaging the defender behind him.
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It can’t be completely positive. Here #21 has to take this DE on for the 1st down. Tries to be a little finesse and steps on the sideline short. With that much space against a DL, this needs to be a 1st down. I’d also like to see Mario go for a few more of these 4th & short situations, but up two TD’s on the road, I understand punting a little bit.
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Assuming this is a called E/T twist for #11 going inside, the LB has to know he becomes the force player. Your job as the force player is always, always, always to force that runner back inside and not give up the edge. You have to attack the outside shoulder of this blocker and make sure you stay wide. It’s going to be a nice run no matter what you do, most likely, but the TD comes into play when you give up a soft edge.
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Bissainthe ducks inside, trying to finesse the block, and it’s curtains. I do want to call out Tyler Baron. He runs this all the way down 50 yards downfield and just misses a TD saving tackle. Can’t be trying to jump inside on those, #31. Jaden Harris shows his inexperience at S/Star and sucks inside too much. Edge/Deep are the two areas that you defend first in that spot.
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Carpenter whiffs in short yardage here, but Martinez sees the bounce and Riley Williams with another seal on the edge to pick up the first down. When you watch a game, in your head just remember how impactful the little plays can be in the final score. Riley misses this block, Miami punts it back. They get a TD on this drive, but wouldn’t do so without the critical down conversion.
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This is so pretty. Florida sends a delayed blitz. Cooper has the edge initially, then passes him off, takes #6. Carpenter handles the 3T by himself and puts him on the ground (he tripped over 78). Ward gets to his third read on the backside he had so much time. Miami catches a break as the defender’s helmet comes off, which stops the clock without having to use a timeout.
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This is such a difficult catch. Running full speed over the MOF and having to turn torso back the opposite direction and catch a bullet. Arroyo is what they told us he was.
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If you know me, you know my favorite route concept in all of football is the Smash concept. There are so many variations, it succeeds against so many different coverages, it gives easy answers and keys. Here, the Smash concept gets one of Florida’s best players to jump on the shorter route and leave the corner open (#2 is a really good CB if he wants to hit that portal next year). What I really like is how Ward throws it flat, knowing that the window is wide open and Restrepo also sees that window and flattens up to make an easy catch.
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Alston makes his blocker fall down trying to keep up, Mauigoa most likely had something to say to Mertz when he sacked him here.
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You’ve all seen the whip route from Restrepo and then a spin that put Florida’s other safety into another dimension. I always say I’m going to make these shorter and then I’m 50 stills in and still going, so I’m going to speed this up. (Not pictured)

There are no allegations here, but on this particular play, you have to score Brown. My guess is that there will be real conversations when film happens (already has happened by time you read) about effort and finishing. Brown slows up and gets tackled short. Ball in wrong arm, nonchalant run. In a mostly positive review, Sam Brown was a lowlight in this game.
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To be continued (no comments please)...

I was just about to message you when is this coming out...
 
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What I think Rodriguez is trying to do there is jump set the 3 technique. Instead of punching/stabbing with his left side, he flips his feet and gets beat.
 
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Brown was definitely in his head. Maybe a bit tight and tentative because of the situation. He'll step up. Or at least he better because Horton is right on his heels and there's plenty of depth behind him.
 
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My goodness look at Lyle picking that pass pro up. That’s a freshman!! Stud.

Rodriguez struggling spawned this masterpiece play but it's better roffers mentions than me.. since he let cat out of bag that was only glaring thing I saw from gem (the rest were things you hope clean up from no preseason)..

Another domino effect this had is it caused rivers to over help and he let edge go a couple times peaking inside.. cam is such a magician most won't see this and if we are to make legit playoff run we need a better solution.. dam Cohen woulda made more money staying at the crib..
 
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