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Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

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Rellyrell said:
One of the great mysteries in recent memories. Just knew he would be a stud at the next level. He was playing out of his mind in ‘18
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Probably a combination of stars aligning, him being 25 vs 18 to 23 years olds, and in a very aggressive system that allowed him to be who he is and just a wrecking ball and 1v1s all day and eat. Couldn't' keep that style going maybe in the NFL. That's my only rational idea?
 
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puertorricane said:
Roche, Phillips, Rousseau, Silvera, Couch, Frierson, Bolden, James Williams, Taylor, Avante Williams, Chantz Williams, Chase Smith, Kinchens, Tyrique Stevenson.
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Cool story bro! He’s been here for 6 years bro! How many wins does all these supposed “top recruits” gotten us bro? #8 ranked 2018 recruiting class that are all upper classmen bro? How many more years of recruiting does Manure need bro? 5, 10 more years bro? Let us fans know bro! 🙄
 
NicKane said:
Well said Relly. Fools like @puertorricane think that Clemson has nothing but five stars running around there defense but that couldn’t be further from the truth and I’m glad you pointed that out to him. It’s about evals and culture and discipline up there In Clemson. And those three things have been severely lacking under Manure as DC and HC. It’s literally not even comparable unless youre a CIS slurper! Smh
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Since 2016 Clemson has recruited 36 players that were 4 stars or better on defense alone. Yeah they depend on those three stars evaluation and development.
 
In short, we can say and use whatever metrics we want..but if we had Lashlees offense in 2018 we are a 10 win team. Manny can coach his a$$ off on Defense. Period. People questioning his skills as a head coach have valid points but want to overlook the fact that this is a legit 10 win team with the Lashlee/Diaz combo and Diaz will hand the reigns over to a DC after this season. But **** cant the man try and save his job first? Lol. He’s knows this season is do or die.
 
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Rellyrell said:
***Caution: LONG POST***

I think we keep emphasizing the ‘18 season & we’re forgetting the ‘16 & ‘17 seasons.

So did some research:
Miami was as follows in ‘18:
-1st in Def Pass Efficiency
-1st in 3rd Down Defense
-23rd in 4th Down Defense
-5th in 1st Down Defense
-1st in Passing Yards Allowed
-42nd in Rushing Yards Allowed
-18th in Scoring Defense
-1st in TFLs
-4th in Total Defense
-55th in RZ Defense

Truly outstanding....until u look at the teams we faced & their offensive rankings.

I’m only going to use P5 schools on this:

-LSU - (pre Joe Brady & when Joe Burrow was considered a scrub):
-68th in Total Offense
-66th in Passing Offense
-57th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-27th in RZ Offense
-100th in TFLs allowed
-59th in Rushing Offense
-37th in Scoring Offense

-UNC:
-77th in Scoring Offense
-44th in Rushing Offense
-42nd in TFLs allowed
-78th in RZ Offense
-111th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-47th in Passing Offense
-31st in Total Offense

-FSU:
-102nd in Total Offense
-28th in Passing Offense
-126th in Rushing Offense
-126th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-109th in RZ Offense
-126th in TFLs allowed
-112th in Scoring Offense

-UVA:
-69th in Scoring Offense
-81st in Total Offense
-86th in Passing Offense
-60th in Rushing Offense
-6th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-49th in TFLs Allowed
-126th in RZ Offense

-BC:
-96th in RZ Offense
-79th in TFLs Allowed
-67th in Total Offense
-81st in Passing Offense
-48th in Rushing Offense
-114th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-38th in Scoring Offense

-Duke:
-63rd in Scoring Offense
-56th in RZ Offense
-44th in TFLs allowed
-65th in Total Offense
-52nd in Passing Offense
-77th in Rushing Offense
-37th in 3rd Down Efficiency

-GT:
-26th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-1st in Rushing Offense
-126th in Passing Offense
-61st in Total Offense
-29th in TFLs Allowed
-101st in RZ Offense
-33rd in Scoring Offense

-VT:
-60th in Scoring Offense
-63rd in TFLs Allowed
-82nd in 3rd Down Efficiency
-39th in Total Offense
-11th in RZ Offense
-40th in Passing Offense
-57th in Rushing Offense

-Pitt:
-18th in Rushing Offense
-93rd in Scoring Offense
-120th in Passing Offense
-87th in TFLs Allowed
-97th in Total Offense
-96th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-79th in RZ Offense

-Wisc:
-41st in RZ Offense
-61st in Scoring Offense
-50th in 3rd Down Efficiency
-6th in Rushing Offense
-118th in Passing Offense
-6th in TFLs Allowed
-36th in Total Offense



So right off the back, our ‘18-19 season was filled w/ inept offenses.
Our opponents avg:
-65th in Total Offense
-72nd in RZ Offense
-63rd in TFLs allowed
-76th in Passing Offense
-45th in Rushing Offense
-71st in 3rd Down Efficiency
-64th in Scoring Offense

The combined record of our opponents matched this fact as these 10 teams went 68 - 59.

Imo, 2018 was a nice crescendo for Diaz:
-Played against pedestrian Offenses
-Had an absolute monster at DT that wrecked havoc up the middle
-Solid LBs
-Very Good Secondary

I won’t knock Diaz on the ‘18 season b/c ur opponents r ur opponents. However, we faced teams that worked right into our schematic hands; teams that couldn’t stay on the field b/c they allowed TFLs & were often one dimensional. On the other hand, when we faced a good rushing team, or teams that could stay on the field, we got gashed, not for huge chunks, but steady body blows.

I don’t like YPP stats; just like I don’t like Total Defense stats. D’No used Total Defense to justify why his system worked. Here, YPP is being used. U have to look at the whole pic. Our 3rd % went up b/c majority of our opponents for ‘18 sucked in that category compared to the ‘16 & ‘17 season. In ‘19 we went right back to having an inability to getting off the field.

Diaz is a good DC. What I didn’t have the time to do is compare how his contemporaries fared against their schedule of P5 schools & where they ranked offensively. Just doing a quick glance at Clemson’s ‘18 schedule & it was much, much more difficult than our’s w/ more offensively efficient teams. So what Brent was able to do that season is not on the same playing field.

All things r not equal. Just b/c it’s P5 don’t mean it’s the same quality of opponent.
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Beautiful work, my dude. I trust my eyes over any statistical metric because stats are what led to those old BCS computer polls where UC Davis was ranked 15th one year despite being a D2 program.

If you watch football, your eyes should tell you Manure's defenses are big on splash plays and big on wide open running lanes and wide open receivers. How many crummy QBs did he make look like Tom Brady in 17? I remember 3 guys having career games against him. And, make no mistake, this D the last 2 years was his.

We'll see how it goes this year, but I wouldn't expect Manure to be a guy who suddenly fields a sound D that doesn't get gashed on the regular. He'll have his splash plays for sure like he always does because his D is built on creating chaos. But when that chaos doesn't work there's chaos on his side of the ball too.
 
puertorricane said:
Since 2016 Clemson has recruited 36 players that were 4 stars or better on defense alone. Yeah they depend on those three stars evaluation and development.
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Check there starting roster slurpy! How many 4 stars you sign means **** versus how they develop and who actually plays and starts and breaks into the two deep. Did you ever even play the game? And pop Warner and freshman/JV highschool don’t count. Smh there best players on defense and leader of that defense was Jamie Skalski and he was a .85 three star. And when he went out on a BS targeting call against OSU in the playoffs their defense fell apart. Oh and number one draft pick and the best defensive player Clemson has ever had Isaiah Simmons was a .87 three star. So clearly again you don’t have a ******* clue what your talking about. But when you’ve never played the game, and your knowledge is from your armchair, it’s no surprise.
 
The Franchise said:
Beautiful work, my dude. I trust my eyes over any statistical metric because stats are what led to those old BCS computer polls where UC Davis was ranked 15th one year despite being a D2 program.

If you watch football, your eyes should tell you Manure's defenses are big on splash plays and big on wide open running lanes and wide open receivers. How many crummy QBs did he make look like Tom Brady in 17? I remember 3 guys having career games against him. And, make no mistake, this D the last 2 years was his.

We'll see how it goes this year, but I wouldn't expect Manure to be a guy who suddenly fields a sound D that doesn't get gashed on the regular. He'll have his splash plays for sure like he always does because his D is built on creating chaos. But when that chaos doesn't work there's chaos on his side of the ball too.
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There it is right there slurper brigade! Mike drop and you fools just walked into another ambush and it’s lights out for you and your Manure is a “top DC” agenda. Eyes dont lie, but stats like my man franchise said led to the UC Davis BCS fiasco and might I add FSU number 2 when we beat them head to head in 2000 abortion. Long story short, stats are bogus if you can’t stop a team from marching down the ******* field on you all game converting 3rd and 4th downs over and over again. Now @Go Canes!! @OrangeBowlMagic @HurricaneHauk and @puertorricane line up for your execution from the Franchise and since it’s February, we’re gonna go ahead and handle it St Valentine’s Day massacre style sportos! Lol

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ghost2 said:
I still don't understand why it's surprising that good offenses do better against the defense than bad ones.
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I assume this is somewhat tongue in cheek, but I believe the argument they are making is that the D did not do as well comparably against better offenses. So say (with made up numbers for the sake of the example) we might hold bad offenses 1 YPP under their average and good ones only .1 YPP under.

Not saying I agree one way or the other.
 
ghost2 said:
I still don't understand why it's surprising that good offenses do better against the defense than bad ones.
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It’s not, but that’s not the question and you know it. UNC was our worst loss ever. We got gang raped on the ground, no adjustments, total embarrassment. No one near the ball carrier until it was nearly a first down. Just as an example.
 
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Meast21 said:
Great analysis and big THANK YOU

One question (not sure if feasible). In Manny's 3 years as DC what i found most impressive were his 2nd half adjustments. At times, the D would get punched in the mouth early in the game but would be much stiffer in the 2nd half. I assume you cant but anyway to look at the data for just 2nd half of games?

Ultimately the whole game matters of course but 2nd half adjustments are a sign of a **** good coach imo
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This seemed to happen under Baker too, but the issue was he was so bad in the first half that when he adjusted at half time we had already dug ourselves a hole and the adjustments - while better - were still below where they should have been (at least from the eye test).

I don't know if that was Manny pointing things out at half-time that made it a little better or what, but after so many of our games I sat there thinking 'why do they seem to be able to make half time adjustments, but never be prepared for what's coming at the start of the game'. I am sure Manny would tell you 'they did something we never saw before'.
 
Ethnicsands said:
@reyrell, @LuCane

If you really want to understand defensive coordinators, and you had the ability to crunch the numbers, here’s what I’d want to understand.

Take each opponent, throw out their non-P5 games, and then look at their average metrics as a baseline, mean and variance. Then for starters compare their games against a specific opponent to the baseline for that team, that season. How did manny do against Opponent X relative to Opponent X metrics for that year. That’s step 1.

Step 2 would be to scale the results. How are they impacted by a variety of factors. Offensive styles, blow-outs, opponent quality (rankings), weather, home field, injuries. There’s a lot of things you could factor in. Not saying there’s a perfect answer but you can improve on step 1 if you try.

Step 3 would be to look at the output of steps 1-2 for a teams losses and see whether the DC performed to his own standards in losses or underperformed. That will tell you whether his metrics are padded by bad teams. Can also do this for tough opponents, including wins.

The basic question with manny is whether his defensive approach underperforms in tough situations. I wouldn’t say it’s answered easily because all Ds are going to be more challenged by better opponents. But it’s answerable statistically. Does his D tend to do worse relative to its own baseline vs top opponents than your average D does against its own baseline in comparable dynamics? Can ask similar questions for third downs and red zones.
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The real question to try to answer is how does manny’s D do generally, then how does manny’s D do against good teams, amd compare manny’s variance between good and average against other DCs variance; also compare manny’s absolute vs. good and average against other DCs. If manny’s D is unusually benefitting from stats against bad teams, and underperforming vs good teams, this would illuminate that.
 
Lance Roffers said:
Yes. Not good.
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How are you evaluating? If using the same metric, I don't think either is necessarily useful here since T Rob will not be calling the plays and I don't believe that T Will ever was a coordinator.

That said, I did see an article that Manny Navarro had where he compared Miami LB PFF grades to Auburn ones under T Will and even though the recruits were higher ranked for Auburn, the scores were not that much better for Auburn's LBs compared to Miami. I realize that PFF grades aren't necessarily the end all be all either.
 
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PittsburghCane said:
Ed Orgeron.
Mario Cristobal.
Mike Leach.
Dave Aranda.

off top.
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I don't believe Cristobal was ever a coordinator, thus was never fired in that capacity and doesn't apply to my question. I also don't believe Leach was fired AS A COORDINATOR. Getting fired as a head coach doesn't apply to my original question. Correct me if I'm wrong on that one as far as him being fired as a coordinator.

As far as Aranda goes, he was fired from Hawaii but only as a matter of circumstance (and not for a lack of performance like Manny was at Texas) when the head coach he was under got canned, so he was not retained since the new coach brought in his own staff. So Aranda himself wasn't DIRECTLY fired INDIVIDUALLY for a LACK OF PERFORMANCE. Aranda's defensive stats at Hawaii were actually pretty good. We also don't have enough sample of him as a HEAD COACH to say he's a great head coach yet. As such I don't think he meets the criteria of the original question.

Was Orgeron ever a coordinator either? I also don't think he's a good example and doesn't apply to the original premise. The original premise was that a guy coming up the ranks who failed at his particular "area of expertise" rarely goes on to find success when tasked with being a head coach. Orgeron's "area of expertise" was recruiting....where he was excellent.

None of those examples I think quell the original concern.
 
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@NicKane


Daniel Jones 21/41 166 1 INT

Blackmon 17/28 200 2 TD 2 INT

Dungey - 13/41 137 4 INT

UNC QBs - 20/46 173 1 TD 3 INT

Josh Jackson - 20/32 197 yards 2 INT

Notre Dame QBs - 13/27 152 1 TD 3 INT

Benkert - 28/37 384 3 TD

Pickett - 18/29 193 yards 1 TD

Clemson QBs - 25/34 - 254 1 TD

Wisconsin - 23/34 - 258 4 TD

Total TD 16
Total INT 15

But it’s nice you want to try to exclude an entire season because it doesn’t fit your narrative

Should we do 2016 as well?
 
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Ethnicsands said:
It’s not, but that’s not the question and you know it. UNC was our worst loss ever. We got gang raped on the ground, no adjustments, total embarrassment. No one near the ball carrier until it was nearly a first down. Just as an example.
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Oh agree totally. I wasn't necessarily talking about us. Just the general trope that "Coach X lost to any offense with a pulse" etc
 
NicKane said:
Check there starting roster slurpy! How many 4 stars you sign means **** versus how they develop and who actually plays and starts and breaks into the two deep. Did you ever even play the game? And pop Warner and freshman/JV highschool don’t count. Smh there best players on defense and leader of that defense was Jamie Skalski and he was a .85 three star. And when he went out on a BS targeting call against OSU in the playoffs their defense fell apart. Oh and number one draft pick and the best defensive player Clemson has ever had Isaiah Simmons was a .87 three star. So clearly again you don’t have a ******* clue what your talking about. But when you’ve never played the game, and your knowledge is from your armchair, it’s no surprise.
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7 five stars and 17 total that are 4 stars or above on their 2 deep defense.
Yet you try to make your point by crowning one of the few 3 stars.
Use facts to prove your point not your bias.
 
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