Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

[HurricaneHauk]

Still waiting on the list. Shouldn’t take long considering the number is countless.

Joe Burrow 11/24 140 yards

M Guadagni 13/21 - 222 2 TD, 1 INT

FIU QBS - 13/28 1yards 2 TD 1 INT

UNC QBS - 20-35 160 yards 3 INTS

Francois - 15-30 129 yards 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble

Perkins 12/21 91 yards 3 INT

A Brown - 15/28 152 1 TD 1 INT

Daniel Jones 17/35 130 yards 1 INT

Ryan Willis 18/36 212 yards 1 TD 2 INT

Pockett 11/20 130 yards
Jack coan 6/11 70 yards 1 TD 1 INT

Wow we made ally of QBs look the heiskan winners that year

 

[puertorricane]

Another thing that needs to be looked at is recruiting.
Not saying Venables is a bad coach but is easier to have a good defenses with 5stars all over your roster.
With improved recruiting coaching and results will also look better.

 

[Canezum5]

Using just the eyeball test,and not digging in the stats, the difference is Manny knowing when and how to scheme up a negative play to swing momentum and get a stop on 3rd down with more frequency than Baker.

Baker seemed to struggle at using certain talent for specific roles. Manny isnt belicheck but he is a lot better at knowing who to send on a blitz and how.

 

[NicKane]

Joe Burrow 11/24 140 yards

M Guadagni 13/21 - 222 2 TD, 1 INT

FIU QBS - 13/28 1yards 2 TD 1 INT

UNC QBS - 20-35 160 yards 3 INTS

Francois - 15-30 129 yards 2 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble

Perkins 12/21 91 yards 3 INT

A Brown - 15/28 152 1 TD 1 INT

Daniel Jones 17/35 130 yards 1 INT

Ryan Willis 18/36 212 yards 1 TD 2 INT

Pockett 11/20 130 yards
Jack coan 6/11 70 yards 1 TD 1 INT

Wow we made ally of QBs look the heiskan winners that year

Grab the 2017 list slurpy! You know the one all you slurpers like to point to as the “but but but we were ranked #2” smoke and mirrors season as Mannys defense got eviscerated by any QB with a pulse or ones making their first ******* start! If it’s wasn’t for literally 2 offensive MIRACLES were 8 and 5 that year with Mannys defense not being able to stop anyone. Smh while you at it take a look at the 2016 season to sporto!

 

[Ethnicsands]

@reyrell, @LuCane

If you really want to understand defensive coordinators, and you had the ability to crunch the numbers, here’s what I’d want to understand.

Take each opponent, throw out their non-P5 games, and then look at their average metrics as a baseline, mean and variance. Then for starters compare their games against a specific opponent to the baseline for that team, that season. How did manny do against Opponent X relative to Opponent X metrics for that year. That’s step 1.

Step 2 would be to scale the results. How are they impacted by a variety of factors. Offensive styles, blow-outs, opponent quality (rankings), weather, home field, injuries. There’s a lot of things you could factor in. Not saying there’s a perfect answer but you can improve on step 1 if you try.

Step 3 would be to look at the output of steps 1-2 for a teams losses and see whether the DC performed to his own standards in losses or underperformed. That will tell you whether his metrics are padded by bad teams. Can also do this for tough opponents, including wins.

The basic question with manny is whether his defensive approach underperforms in tough situations. I wouldn’t say it’s answered easily because all Ds are going to be more challenged by better opponents. But it’s answerable statistically. Does his D tend to do worse relative to its own baseline vs top opponents than your average D does against its own baseline in comparable dynamics? Can ask similar questions for third downs and red zones.

 

[ghost2]

I still don't understand why it's surprising that good offenses do better against the defense than bad ones.

 

[NicKane]

Another thing that needs to looked at is recruiting.
Not saying Venables is a bad coach but is easier to have a good defense with 5stars all over your roster.
With improved recruiting coaching and results will also look better.

8th ranked 2018 recruiting class bro! How’s that top notch recruiting working out for our corches bro? Over the 50% BC ratio for 4 of Mannys 5 years here bro! How’s that top talent working out for a us bro? So manny needs 5 more years bro! Wow so on 10 years Manny will have a team of enough talent that we might win the coastal huh bro? Smh

 

[NicKane]

Appreciate the article Lance but I've mentioned this before so here goes again - I know what I see when I watch the games and numbers don't tell the whole story... Situational circumstance has a lot to do with it as well... YPP is fine and all that but if it comes down to 3rd and 8 or 3rd and 15 or 4th and 17( Yes I'm using that) and you keep giving those plays up when it matters most then YPP really doesn't carry the same weight...
We all want the D to get better.. I just hope Manny is willing to evolve his scheme by listening to the new coaches and maximizing what they can potentially bring to the table...

@HurricaneHauk learn something!

 

[NicKane]

Not sure why you'd answer to people calling Manny an "average or even poor" DC. As a DC, he was above average and it's hard to argue anything beneath that level.

Currently, despite the fact he's not our DC, but rather our HC/DC, the real debate seems to be around whether he is above average or elite, and how that relates to the execution of his defensive philosophy. And, for that, I think you'll need more than YPP.

I don't question your conclusion based on the narrow scope you selected. But, the methodology tells me there may be a separate discussion/analysis to have. See, part of the problem we've watched unfold is Diaz's philosophy is designed to be good in that YPP metric (btw, I think it's a good indicator, too, but often needs more context).

He coordinates for negative plays to get an offense off schedule. Those negative plays come at a risk, which as a DC he often did a good job of mitigating. The result is a nice YPP metric. However, the philosophy is vulnerable, as we saw in multiple instances or when he (or Baker) is missing a piece. That said, his most impressive year was when he combined a strong YPP with elite 3rd down %. I thought he was on his way to really evolving his defense at that point, and then we saw a disjointed philosophy the last two years. Sure, it was "Baker," but it was Manny's defense and he said himself he was in on everything.

I think the more important question is if his philosophy, when executed as it has been in the past, is solid enough for us to win bigger games consistently. I would be curious to see an analysis of how he performed in "big games" (however way you want to define that) vs how other coordinators/philosophies performed in "big games." Say, Top 25 teams. If there are common Top 25 opponents, all the better.

All of the above is moot if he tinkers with his philosophy and allows Jess Simpson, Shoop, and T-Rob to offer different perspectives to come up with a more controlled version of the negative play madness, and one that has the appropriate coverage behind it. For instance, we played a ton more zone behind the madness these past two years under Baker, resulting in obvious vulnerabilities.

Learn something @HurricaneHauk

 

[NicKane]

I think this analysis is pretty generous to manny and potentially unfair to baker.

Stats lack context on their own. Plenty of things changed other than the DCs. Manny’s famed ‘18 defense had jaquan, redwine and jackson in the secondary, and shaq and pinckney at lb. All recruited by Golden/dorito, moreover. Manny’s weak recruiting as dc/lb coach left a depleted back 7 for baker to work with.

Manny also was free to be himself as DC because Richt ceded the D to him. Baker, however, was stuck trying to run ‘manny’s d’ reporting to manny, who clearly didn’t disengage and let baker be himself but hold him accountable. Manny meddled and didn’t manage, it’s pretty clear.

In any case, manny’s d philosophy really needs good LBs and DBs to cover when the DL gets caught upfield. Manny did no one any favors as DC stocking the cabinet for his successor.

I don’t know if baker would be better away from manny. My guess is he would be better, but not sure whether that means good or just okay.

I couldn’t have said it better myself Ethnic. Hopefully ray charles ( @Go Canes!! ) and Stevie wonder ( @HurricaneHauk) will read this.

 

[NicKane]

I judge Manny by the eye test. How does Miami look against good offenses? Not very good. On the other side Miami usually looks good defensively against the weaker teams (Duke last year) padding statistics making the defense look statistically better. The attacking style works against less talented teams but gets burnt against high powered offenses.

@OrangeBowlMagic @Go Canes!! Read above and soak it into your noggins.

 

[Rellyrell]

Another thing that needs to looked at is recruiting.
Not saying Venables is a bad coach but is easier to have a good defense with 5stars all over your roster.
With improved recruiting coaching and results will also look better.

Great point; which is something that also needs to be taken into consideration as to the precipitous fall from ‘18 to ‘19-20.

We know Manny’s defense is predicated on havoc & when havoc doesn’t work, then the 2nd & 3rd levels better be sure.

Our LB recruiting has sucked since Diaz took over as DC; that’s not an assumption, that’s a fact. I did a compare & contrast using 247 as a matrix in another thread, & the talent level at the 2nd level diminished pretty drastically.

Our 2ndary also took a step back, but not as huge, as we had two top247 S in Hall & Bolden. Interesting to note, when Bolden went down, our defense followed suit in ‘19 as well.

On the boundary, we went from Mike Jackson & Bandy to Blades & Ivey. On paper, that should’ve been an upgrade, but it wasn’t.

On the interior, Nesta, while ranked as the #3 DT in the nation, didn’t have remotely close to the same production as Willis, who too, was a top 3 DT in the nation per 247.

So yes, u r definitely on point. Recruiting is the lifeline of any program, but w/ recruiting gotta come evaluations. Clemson, to their credit, don’t just haphazardly pick guys based upon rankings. They identify certain cultural & system fits. They are very judicious in their recruiting progress. Interesting to note, a lot of Clemson leaders have been 3 & lower 4 star players.

 

[NicKane]

It looked pretty good against ND in 2017.

How’d that same defense look against Virginia, pitt and Wisconsin that year?

 

[NicKane]

Awesome work as always, Lance. As with all statistical analysis, there’s a ton of leeway in the definition of what is a similarly talented opponent.

I’d surmise Miami has a pretty big talent edge in most of the sample you pulled from even though you removed FCS teams. I’d love to see what Manure did at other stops where he might not have had that advantage or what he did here against competent offenses.

Another key factor here is that Manure hasn’t recruited as well on D as Folden did. All of Manure’s best players were Folden recruits. When they left, our results started to decline noticeably.

We’re also going to see if he can do two major jobs at the same time when he’s struggled so badly at his main job. I’m hopeful but skeptical.

Read above @puertorricane about manures recruiting ability, or lack there of.

 

[NicKane]

@Lance Roffers can you add something related to third down success?

And 4th down success too @Lance Roffers ?

 

[NicKane]

Great point; which is something that also needs to be taken into consideration as to the precipitous fall from ‘18 to ‘19-20.

We know Manny’s defense is predicated on havoc & when havoc doesn’t work, then the 2nd & 3rd levels better be sure.

Our LB recruiting has sucked since Diaz took over as DC; that’s not an assumption, that’s a fact. I did a compare & contrast using 247 as a matrix in another thread, & the talent level at the 2nd level diminished pretty drastically.

Our 2ndary also took a step back, but not as huge, as we had two top247 S in Hall & Bolden. Interesting to note, when Bolden went down, our defense followed suit in ‘19 as well.

On the boundary, we went from Mike Jackson & Bandy to Blades & Ivey. On paper, that should’ve been an upgrade, but it wasn’t.

On the interior, Nesta, while ranked as the #3 DT in the nation, didn’t have remotely close to the same production as Willis, who too, was a top 3 DT in the nation per 247.

So yes, u r definitely on point. Recruiting is the lifeline of any program, but w/ recruiting gotta come evaluations. Clemson, to their credit, don’t just haphazardly pick guys based upon rankings. They identify certain cultural & system fits. They are very judicious in their recruiting progress. Interesting to note, a lot of Clemson leaders have been 3 & lower 4 star players.

Well said Relly. Fools like @puertorricane think that Clemson has nothing but five stars running around there defense but that couldn’t be further from the truth and I’m glad you pointed that out to him. It’s about evals and culture and discipline up there In Clemson. And those three things have been severely lacking under Manure as DC and HC. It’s literally not even comparable unless youre a CIS slurper! Smh

 

[Cribby]

I’ve always said manny is a good dc, if you don’t believe that you’re a hater. Now head coach is another question

 

[puertorricane]

Read above @puertorricane about manures recruiting ability, or lack there of.

Roche, Phillips, Rousseau, Silvera, Couch, Frierson, Bolden, James Williams, Taylor, Avante Williams, Chantz Williams, Chase Smith, Kinchens, Tyrique Stevenson.

 

[Astcloud11]

Grab the 2017 list slurpy! You know the one all you slurpers like to point to as the “but but but we were ranked #2” smoke and mirrors season as Mannys defense got eviscerated by any QB with a pulse or ones making their first ******* start! If it’s wasn’t for literally 2 offensive MIRACLES were 8 and 5 that year with Mannys defense not being able to stop anyone. Smh while you at it take a look at the 2016 season to sporto!

We needed miracles because our defense couldn't stop them? You realize those teams he "couldn't stop" scored 20 and 24 points right? Surprise...that was lower than both of those teams PPG average. We needed offensive miracles to win because our offense was subpar.

 

[garysack]

Under usual circumstances, you have to like Manny as DC, usual circumstances being that's his position on the staff. One man cannot be 2 things, otherwise why would you need a full coaching staff? If Manny's doing his job as HC during a game, he's not doing the DC job and vice versa. That's my issue.