Upon Further Review: Manny Diaz as DC

[Ethnicsands]

So wait, what is being said here? Just scanning through this laborious word salad, that OP’s analysis is inherently flawed and Manny was not a very good DC from 2016-2018? Based on the “eye test”

Or am I misinterpreting my cursory scan?

Try harder if you’re trying to troll. Or try harder if you’re trying to emgage.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Try harder if you’re trying to troll. Or try harder if you’re trying to emgage.

No thanks, Ethenic

 

[Ethnicsands]

Go back and rewatch the games and look at how often Diaz had a play sheet in his hands. Diaz was chiming in a **** of a lot more than he was calling plays.

I also believe Diaz will trust input on who to start a **** of a lot more from these coaches than he did from Baker, Banda and Rumph. Jennings and McCloud had no business starting this year. That was predominately Diaz's decision, but now he has SEC level coaches he can depend on. Shoop's role is going to be a big help to him with gameplanning as well.

I keep reading this in comments, but have no idea where it comes from. Banda’s been with Diaz his whole career, and just got an upgrade to DC job. You don’t think Diaz trusted him? Baker is an experienced DC who goes way back with Manny and they’re close. You don’t think Manny trusted him? Rumph folks here can crap on as a recruiter but the guy was a first round pick and NFL player, and your comment was on trusting who to start, not recruiting.

All I know about ‘21 is manny has new guys here he doesn’t know well and his career is on the line. That doesn’t sound like a situation where he’ll trust everyone and see how it goes.

 

[Ethnicsands]

This speaks even more to how big of a drop-off there was from Manny to Baker. In 2020 Baker had the advantage of an offense that scored well and even when they didn’t score, they would usually get a first down or two and after a booming Headley punt, pin the opponent way back. While Manny was DC under Richt they had an offense that couldn’t convert a third down EVER and when they punted, it often went 12 yards, leaving the opponent with great field position. It should have been easy for Baker in 2020 but his defense flopped badly.

On the other hand, manny had the luxury of playing with golden recruits at db and lb. baker unfortunately was stuck with manny’s recruits and the talent level dropped noticeably.

 

[The Franchise]

I keep reading this in comments, but have no idea where it comes from. Banda’s been with Diaz his whole career, and just got an upgrade to DC job. You don’t think Diaz trusted him? Baker is an experienced DC who goes way back with Manny and they’re close. You don’t think Manny trusted him? Rumph folks here can crap on as a recruiter but the guy was a first round pick and NFL player, and your comment was on trusting who to start, not recruiting.

All I know about ‘21 is manny has new guys here he doesn’t know well and his career is on the line. That doesn’t sound like a situation where he’ll trust everyone and see how it goes.

It's just more wishful thinking. It's understandable because we've had nothing to be excited about in almost 20 years. So every time a failing coach makes changes, we hear the same stuff about how these are the guys he's going to listen to and how the prior guys were just mummies. He hired those prior guys too, so he must have felt good about them.

 

[RVACane]

On the other hand, manny had the luxury of playing with golden recruits at db and lb. baker unfortunately was stuck with manny’s recruits and the talent level dropped noticeably.

This is the same issue, believe it or not, that I think Mullet is facing now at UiF. McEltooth was actually a better evaluator of talent than Mullet and Pitts, Toney - they came from that era. Now it’s Mullet’s evals and they aren’t as good. Golden had better evals. I’m hoping these coaches we just got can fix that.

 

[Ethnicsands]

This is the same issue, believe it or not, that I think Mullet is facing now at UiF. McEltooth was actually a better evaluator of talent than Mullet and Pitts, Toney - they came from that era. Now it’s Mullet’s evals and they aren’t as good. Golden had better evals. I’m hoping these coaches we just got can fix that.

Im not even sure it was all evals (tho it was partly that). Manny wasn’t known as a recruiter before UM and he did nothing as DC to change that view. He simply under-recruited (lack of effort and focus) at LB and DB, in particular. And DL recruiting was better because those guys were richt hires (kul and simpson).

 

[RVACane]

Im not even sure it was all evals (tho it was partly that). Manny wasn’t known as a recruiter before UM and he did nothing as DC to change that view. He simply under-recruited (lack of effort and focus) at LB and DB, in particular. And DL recruiting was better because those guys were richt hires (kul and simpson).

What’s your view on CB’s under him? So you think it’s that he doesn’t care about the position as much, is it him/Baker forcing them to play off the line with little press man coverage

 

[Rellyrell]

I dont know I was ball parking I just know he was older then everyone else cause he sat out one yet, had a RS year too and played his SR year too? I follow pretty tight but I dont know the guys actually age. Might be exaggerating a little to prove a point, cause as they say age matters in the trenches.

U weren’t far off. Looks like he was a solid 23 during the ‘18 season. Like turned 23 before the season started.

 

[Angry Ibis]

This is a great breakdown. I think the concern most of us have isn't Manny as DC, but Manny as head coach AND DC. I'd love to see a breakdown of head coaches who also call plays (preferably on defense) and their relative success rates.

I disagree. People have concerns with Manny. They are using the hybrid job as their latest concern. As long as he is the coach, there will be people bagging on him to prove they were right about something sometime

 

[PalyCane]

I think this analysis is pretty generous to manny and potentially unfair to baker.

Stats lack context on their own. Plenty of things changed other than the DCs. Manny’s famed ‘18 defense had jaquan, redwine and jackson in the secondary, and shaq and pinckney at lb. All recruited by Golden/dorito, moreover. Manny’s weak recruiting as dc/lb coach left a depleted back 7 for baker to work with.

Manny also was free to be himself as DC because Richt ceded the D to him. Baker, however, was stuck trying to run ‘manny’s d’ reporting to manny, who clearly didn’t disengage and let baker be himself but hold him accountable. Manny meddled and didn’t manage, it’s pretty clear.

In any case, manny’s d philosophy really needs good LBs and DBs to cover when the DL gets caught upfield. Manny did no one any favors as DC stocking the cabinet for his successor.

I don’t know if baker would be better away from manny. My guess is he would be better, but not sure whether that means good or just okay.

Yup.

The original post contains great work and is informational, but there's far too many variables at play to reach a definitive conclusion about respective Defensive Coordinators mostly from a comparative YPP analysis. I have serious doubts whether YPP is even positively correlated to scoring defense as I've read a number of analyses in the past, and all have concluded that it's not. Relying on a proxy metric (YPP) that's not well correlated to how many points end up on the scoreboard is an issue.

Put another way, would we think that when DC jobs come open in college or pros that the decision makers simply run the YPP analysis, sees who comes out on top, and immediately extends an offer to that guy? If it were the case that YPP comparisons were all it took to evaluate DC's then there'd be universal agreement by all NCAA schools and all NFL teams ranking every DC in precisely the same order. But we know it doesn't work that way. We know that teams all have differing opinions on who the best DC would be for their program when it comes time to hire.

The reason that YPP is not the be-all and end-all in determining DC competency is for reasons mentioned in many posts throughout this thread plus a bunch more, some of which are:

(a) defensive roster compositions change each year making YOY yards per play comparisons invalid,
(b) technology changes; i.e. many ACC teams have referred to Manny's defense as a "gimmick" and claim to have now "figured out" Manny's defense and how to attack it (certainly appeared that way this year), making YOY comparisons invalid,
(c) recruiting matter's when evaluating a DC. For instance, how much of this year's bad defensive performance is on Baker vs how much is on Manny for not recruiting the LB or CB positions when he was DC? Manny's YPP performance when he was DC is very good. But he also is responsible for the worst CB and LB recruiting on defense since I started watching the team 40 yrs ago, and the consequence of that fell on Baker. So what does that say in total about Manny as DC beyond his favorable YPP metrics for the couple years he was running the defense?
(d) is YPP even well correlated to the ultimate goal of keeping points off the scoreboard (as noted above),
(e) how do the offenses compare for the different DC's? An offense that's lighting up the scoreboard is going to see more pressure on it's defense because the other team needs to try to keep up. YPP doesn't/can't consider this
(f) etc.

The question Roman posed in his tweet is the most relevant to me when considering DC competency relative to his peers, which is: What does the market have to say? The original post concludes that Blake's performance was about equal to Jim Leonhard. But the real experts, those whose jobs depend on getting it right, value Leonhard far more.

Jim Leonhard just turned down the DC job with the Packers and would get a DC job with about any college program in the country. Blake found one team who was willing to hire him as a position coach. Yet they turned in almost the same YPP metrics. Therefore they're supposed to be equally competent and quality DC's. But the market certainly doesn't seem to think so.

Baker and Leonhard are statistically the same DC when using YPP. But the experts who do the actual hiring value them quite differently. How is this possible? It's possible because the people who do the actual evaluating about who are the good and not so good Defensive Coordinators out there simply don't place anywhere near the weight on YPP comparisons as the original post would recommend.

 

[Ethnicsands]

What’s your view on CB’s under him? So you think it’s that he doesn’t care about the position as much, is it him/Baker forcing them to play off the line with little press man coverage

I think manny didn’t take recruiting seriously (nor did richt) and that included not managing his CB coach and the overall process effectively. I don’t think it’s that he cared less - i mean, he **** the bed completely at LB and that was his own responsibility. I think he just didn’t engage enough as dc when it came to recruiting - he probably saw it as more about the head coach and position coaches who interact with the recruits — and i think he let his ego and personality get in the way and he just didn't do a good job of it. But i said i was worried about him as a recruiter the day we hired him.

Thst said I think he’s learning as to recruiting. But he’s learning the surface part of it. I am less comfortable he’s really gotten the process part down, but we’ll see.

as to your question, i do think our cb talent and depth impacted play-calling this year. I also suspect manny meddling with baker made it worse, because baker may have been calling the aggression thinking it was manny’s preference or solution and he just didn’t want to fight it. They say a camel is a horse designed by committee. Our defense this year looked like a camel to me.

 

[The Franchise]

I disagree. People have concerns with Manny. They are using the hybrid job as their latest concern. As long as he is the coach, there will be people bagging on him to prove they were right about something sometime

You act like the criticism of Manure is unwarranted and we're stretching for things to be critical of. He's a game removed from the worst woodshed whipping in UM history, and he's done nothing of note on the field in 2 years other than accumulate several of the worst losses in UM history.

 

[Ethnicsands]

You act like the criticism of Manure is unwarranted and we're stretching for things to be critical of. He's a game removed from the worst woodshed whipping in UM history, and he's done nothing of note on the field in 2 years other than accumulate several of the worst losses in UM history.

Yep. The quote you posted is revealing, but it’s the opposite phenomenon from what the QP mentions. The people trying to prove they’re right are the super-fans who cannot tolerate independent thought or critique. The people critical of manny don’t even want to be right. Fans who spend this much time on a message board want to see success, not feel smart because of failure. As one of the critics for 20 years, i’m sure of that. If you and I are still equally critical after 2 more NCs, then they might have a point.

And as you note, the criticism writes itself with the clowns UM hires as coaches. It’s too fancy a term to say we’re Manny critics. Spotting the flaws around our program has been as easy and obvious as telling the difference between a fleshlight and a ford model.

 

[Angry Ibis]

You act like the criticism of Manure is unwarranted and we're stretching for things to be critical of. He's a game removed from the worst woodshed whipping in UM history, and he's done nothing of note on the field in 2 years other than accumulate several of the worst losses in UM history.

There is a difference between criticism being warranted which is true and people hating the hire and *****ing about Manny and everything Manny since that day. Both are happening here.

Posters are returning to **** in the Cheerios since there are people excited about the off-season moves.

 

[FrancisSawyer]

@waynejr31

Mr Steed I presume. Sir I wanted to be clear that I meant no disrespect to you or your son. I have been one of Waynmon's most ardent supporters during his recruitment and after as well as before his injuries and after. McCloud's play this past year was downright atrocious. Jennings had some very good moments but unfortunately those good plays were overshadowed by many more poor plays. While I do think that your son's play was the most consistently steady of the 3, I also think that the injuries have taken their toll on his play. Steed was always a very instinctive type of player with a great football IQ. Unfortunately those injuries seem to have robbed him of some of the speed, quickness and explosivness that helped make him the great prospect he was at Central. Do I think that with an extra year of health and being removed from the injuries could help him recover what he once had? Yes I do. I also believe that another off-season of reps and being coached up by one of the best LB coaches in the college game could make a huge difference. I have not completely counted him out as I truly believe that Waynmon is the only one of those 3 that has a realistic chance of a comeback player of the year type of campaign. I am rooting for him but the road ahead will not be an easy one. On the contrary, it will be extremely difficult with young kids like Brooks, Cave, Huff and Flagg fighting Steed for 2 starting spots. Once again I do apologize if my post came across as being disrespectful.

 

[ssvir]

I was right about that too, jealous **** face. Now wipe my poo off your nose and run along.

Poor baby who admitted his entire football "knowledge" is based upon watching games on TV on the weekend gets made fun of for his idiotic stance on Pick-it so he has to lash out and throw his food on the ground. Pathetic.

 

[Rellyrell]

Let’s not forget how wildly inconsistent Rosier/Richt were

Rosier was terrible in that FSU game, we had zero points at half and 10 at end of the 3rd (thank you long PR Berrios)

Defense was fine against GT, we gave up 17 points...7 came on that awful onside kick, we held them to 3 points on offense in the 2nd half

I don’t think people realize how incomsistent Rosier was that season and I could care less what his stats were at the end of the season

UNC and Cuse had awful defenses and the defense gave up 19 point each in those games and we barely hung on because the offense couldn’t be consistent. Game wasn’t close because of any fault of the defense

Same with FSU, they had 3 going into the 4th, what more could you want? We score just 21 and FSU probably curls up and dies

Against Pitt we had 7 points 2 minutes left in the game where we gave up 24.

I don’t think Manny is some defensive savant who’s tears can cure cancer but his defense from ‘16-‘18 outside a handful of games were not an issue

No argument here; which is y I would get upset w/ ppl caking up for Richt as well.

So looking at Manny’s body of work, and imma just do a quick snapshot using “total” (although I hate this matrix):

At Miami, he had the 57th ranked Total Offense & 37th ranked scoring offense (Kaaya in ‘16).

He had the 60th ranked Total Offense & 59th ranked scoring offense (Rosier in ‘17)

He had the 104th ranked Total Offense & 65th scoring offense (Rosier + N’Kosi in ‘18)

I think it’s fair to say in ‘16, the offense was most complimentary.
In 2016, we ranked 20th in Total Def & 12th in Scoring Def.

In 2017, we ranked 38th in Total Def & 28th in Scoring Def.

And of course, we know about 2018.

Compare that to his stint in Texas:
UT had the 54th ranked total offense & 55th ranked scoring offense in 2011

UT had the 40th ranked total offense & 23rd ranked scoring offense in 2012

UT had the 64th ranked total offense & 65th ranked scoring offense in 2013

Texas defense ranked 11th in Total Def & 33rd in total defense in 2011

Texas defense ranked 67th in Total Def & 73rd in scoring defense in 2012

And of course we know what happened in 2013, but UT was on their way to being the 68th ranked Total Def & 57th ranked scoring defense.

So it’s clear Diaz hasn’t had much offensive support as a DC, imo. But his stint at UT vs. Miami is something to note.

Even briefly looking at Miss St, when Diaz is at the helm for the first yr, his defense takes off & cracks the top 20 immediately at his stops. The following yrs, it drops. I didn’t include Miss St b/c he was only there one yr each time before seeking a better gig.

Now this is what’s interesting:

In 2011, UT per teamrankings.com had the 10th strongest SOS.
In 2012, UT had the 8th strongest SOS
In 2013, UT had the 14th strongest SOS

In 2016, Miami had the 18th strongest SOS
In 2017, Miami had the 19th strongest SOS
However, in 2018, Miami had the 43rd strongest SOS.

It appears the anomaly for Diaz in 2018 is that this was the weakest schedule he’s faced, and our defense finally out talented the inept offenses. If we took out G5 teams in 2018, we were 43rd out of 65 regarding our SOS.

So the famed 2018 broke the cyclical rep of Diaz b/c it was one of the worst schedules in the nation. Diaz then parlayed that outstanding season into a HC job. Good for him; b/c the likelihood of things reassembling to normal which is start great, but then tailing off would most likely have happened.

Now, the ? is was the ‘19 & ‘20 seasons getting Diaz back on track to his normal rep? Miami’s 2019 season started off like gang busters against the 62nd ranked SOS. Miami was 23rd in Total Def, but then when faced w/ the 27th ranked SOS, we fell to 67th in Total Def & 51st in Scoring Def in 2020.

Was that Baker or a continuation of the trend for Diaz? I guess we’ll all find out together. Again, Diaz is a good DC, but there was a reason y he was fired. His defense comes out like gang busters 1st yr, and then they slip. The lone exception was 2018, but again, that was also one of the worst SOS schedules among P5 teams.

 

[Shogungts]

I disagree. People have concerns with Manny. They are using the hybrid job as their latest concern. As long as he is the coach, there will be people bagging on him to prove they were right about something sometime

Yeah, but I think the key word in his post is 'most'. There are certainly people who think he was a terribly overrated DC and for that matter just a bad DC. To your point, those people will constantly try to validate that, but I think most people have him in the average, above average or elite categories. And I am guessing if you polled fans whether Manny was terrible, below average, average, above average or elite that the category that would get the most votes is above average and then average and elite (not necessarily in that order) would be next.

Personally I think he is in the above average group, but I am somewhat concerned about him trying to be the play caller and HC mainly b/c his results as a HC have been somewhat suspect (although I applaud him for being willing to admit the issues and visibly trying to address them).

I also worry - as others have pointed out - about recruiting. Whether it was b/c he didn't take it seriously, had a bad eye for talent, didn't hold his coaches accountable and/or didn't develop talent, there is no denying that between his time as DC and then as HC that there were several positions on D that we have either not been able to get quality players (LB) or players altogether (CB). Hopefully that changes with the strong recruiting staff that he has built, but the recruiting (for the most part) won't be felt until 2 or 3 years from now.

To be clear, I think the D should be better with Manny calling the plays than it was last year and am cautiously optimistic that he has learned enough as a HC to make it work, but it still something that gives me pause.

 

[Rellyrell]

Roche, Phillips, Rousseau, Silvera, Couch, Frierson, Bolden, James Williams, Taylor, Avante Williams, Chantz Williams, Chase Smith, Kinchens, Tyrique Stevenson.

Are you crediting Manny w/ all of this? Lol.