Upon Further Review- Dan Enos

[DiegoCane]

What does his time at Central Michigan have to do with him here? Do you think if he would have stay at Alabama, they would have had a bad offense?

That is like saying, what did his time as OC at Arky or QB coach at Bama have to do with him here. As a HC, you run the program exactly as you want it. He was running the offense exactly how he wanted and it wasn't good, much worse then the prior coaching staff.

I just find that comment intellectually dishonest because past performance doesn't suggest that to be the case.

FWIW, I'm not saying the hire was good or bad.

 

[ghost2]

That is like saying, what did his time as OC at Arky or QB coach at Bama have to do with him here. As a HC, you run the program exactly as you want it. He was running the offense exactly how he wanted and it wasn't good, much worse then the prior coaching staff.

I just find that comment intellectually dishonest because past performance doesn't suggest that to be the case.

FWIW, I'm not saying the hire was good or bad.

I agree with you to a point but I think the argument could also be made that he's grown and matured as a playcaller and coach since his days at CMU. Not to play the "Saban wanted him bro" card, but if he were just a mediocre offensive coach from a failed MAC team he wouldn't have had the career path he's had, IMO.

 

[canes23]

Excellent analysis Lance!!! Wonderful as always. I want to emphasize that I, too, love the fact that he is an ex head coach. Manny needs this as he is a rookie head coach and would benefit from his experience

 

[DiegoCane]

I agree with you to a point but I think the argument could also be made that he's grown and matured as a playcaller and coach since his days at CMU. Not to play the "Saban wanted him bro" card, but if he were just a mediocre offensive coach from a failed MAC team he wouldn't have had the career path he's had, IMO.

I can agree with that.

 

[Lance Roffers]

Has nothing to do with you.

Your work is indisputably excellent.

My post was directed on that individual poster who happily joined in on an Enos bltchfest in another thread.

I’m sure you know how it works around here with some porsters.

People trying to be first to trash the hire so if things go sideways they can beat their chests down the line and say “I said it first, I told you so”

Your work, as usual, is PhD quality.

My post, as written, was extremely confusing. I get that upon further review.

Believe it or not, I don’t read the board much so I don’t know much about individual posters etc. Don’t get me wrong- it’s an excellent board- but I spend so much time researching/writing my articles I don’t much extra time reading the board.

Thanks for the kind words.

 

[Lance Roffers]

A passing game savant and one of the best offensive minds in college football doesn't take over a program and have a bad offense for 5 straight years.

I get your point. Our board owner @DMoney said the same thing to me (in a manner of speaking) while I was putting together data.

If you’d allow me to offer a bit of a counterpoint.

Enos game planned outstandingly against teams with far more talent at CMU. Eventually the defense would take those wrinkles away and win with talent, but I like the opening drives against opponents especially the one against Virginia Tech.

Next, the data suggests he was quite good at CMU. The coach he replaced was the big year from Butch Jones, who had an NFL QB- the best QB in program history Dan Lefevour- and here is the data against peer teams (Group-of-5 teams). CMU was very poor and had to play three P5 teams most years.

Basically, under Butch Jones best season with their best QB ever, they put up 8.21 yards per pass.

Enos offense put up: 7.25, 7.67, 8.04, 8.12, 8.75.

Putting up 8 yards per play against peers generally gets you to the 90th percentile of passing offenses in America.

He averaged 7.96.

I’ve given the data on how he performed. From there, each individual has to decide for themselves whether it’s valuable or not.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Believe it or not, I don’t read the board much so I don’t know much about individual posters etc. Don’t get me wrong- it’s an excellent board- but I spend so much time researching/writing my articles I don’t much extra time reading the board.

Thanks for the kind words.

The time you put in is evident, but it’s the quality that blows my mind.

It’s not just effort, it’s quality effort.

There are WS analysts making high multiple six figures that don’t put this quality in their business analyses.

Just a quick question. I’d be interested in your opinion as to the quarterback situation, and what you think the likelihood is, assuming we get a transfer, of him changing the QB room and who you think might fit in the best in his system. I know it’s all speculation but you certainly have looked at enough of his offenses to get a feel for who might fit in the best

 

[DiegoCane]

I get your point. Our board owner @DMoney said the same thing to me (in a manner of speaking) while I was putting together data.

If you’d allow me to offer a bit of a counterpoint.

Enos game planned outstandingly against teams with far more talent at CMU. Eventually the defense would take those wrinkles away and win with talent, but I like the opening drives against opponents especially the one against Virginia Tech.

Next, the data suggests he was quite good at CMU. The coach he replaced was the big year from Butch Jones, who had an NFL QB- the best QB in program history Dan Lefevour- and here is the data against peer teams (Group-of-5 teams). CMU was very poor and had to play three P5 teams most years.

Basically, under Butch Jones best season with their best QB ever, they put up 8.21 yards per pass.

Enos offense put up: 7.25, 7.67, 8.04, 8.12, 8.75.

Putting up 8 yards per play against peers generally gets you to the 90th percentile of passing offenses in America.

He averaged 7.96.

I’ve given the data on how he performed. From there, each individual has to decide for themselves whether it’s valuable or not.

I think looking at individual data points is good but you also need to look at the complete picture as well. His offenses overall, and record, at CMU were not good.

FWIW, I think your breakdown was quite good. I just think using those words was not needed.

 

[Lance Roffers]

The time you put in is evident, but it’s the quality that blows my mind.

It’s not just effort, it’s quality effort.

There are WS analysts making high multiple six figures that don’t put this quality in their business analyses.

Just a quick question. I’d be interested in your opinion as to the quarterback situation, and what you think the likelihood is, assuming we get a transfer, of him changing the QB room and who you think might fit in the best in his system. I know it’s all speculation but you certainly have looked at enough of his offenses to get a feel for who might fit in the best

Jalen Hurts would be outstanding for this program in my personal opinion.

That QB room has had repeated issues with a lack of maturity, leadership, and understanding of the offense. Hurts would solve all of those issues.

Additionally, his presence alleviates one of the biggest concerns in that he gives each QB a year to practice and learn the offense to be ready to go the next season when Hurts leaves.

My personality matches up so well with Tate Martell’s, it would also be perfect to get him to sit, then next year let the bodies hit the floor.

*Aside* Regarding the analyst bit, I ran a data group for an international banking team at a Fortune 500 company in my corporate life. This is infinitely more fun and interesting than that was. But my wife enjoyed the paycheck at the other gig a lot more.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Jalen Hurts would be outstanding for this program in my personal opinion.

That QB room has had repeated issues with a lack of maturity, leadership, and understanding of the offense. Hurts would solve all of those issues.

Additionally, his presence alleviates one of the biggest concerns in that he gives each QB a year to practice and learn the offense to be ready to go the next season when Hurts leaves.

My personality matches up so well with Tate Martell’s, it would also be perfect to get him to sit, then next year let the bodies hit the floor.

*Aside* Regarding the analyst bit, I ran a data group for an international banking team at a Fortune 500 company in my corporate life. This is infinitely more fun and interesting than that was. But my wife enjoyed the paycheck at the other gig a lot more.

Yeah, I had a feeling there had to be some kind of high level business analysis experience in your background.

 

[LexCane55]

Excellent work

 

[Lance Roffers]

I think looking at individual data points is good but you also need to look at the complete picture as well. His offenses overall, and record, at CMU were not good.

FWIW, I think your breakdown was quite good. I just think using those words was not needed.

Appreciate the feedback. Healthy disagreements help me grow.

I analyze a little differently than you’re describing, but the great thing about analysis is the ability to perceive things different ways.

 

[JHallCanes]

Believe it or not, I don’t read the board much so I don’t know much about individual posters etc. Don’t get me wrong- it’s an excellent board- but I spend so much time researching/writing my articles I don’t much extra time reading the board.

Thanks for the kind words.

Stay golden, Lance. Stay golden.

 

[mossmadness]

Next, the data suggests he was quite good at CMU. The coach he replaced was the big year from Butch Jones, who had an NFL QB- the best QB in program history Dan Lefevour- and here is the data against peer teams (Group-of-5 teams). CMU was very poor and had to play three P5 teams most years.

Basically, under Butch Jones best season with their best QB ever, they put up 8.21 yards per pass.

Enos offense put up: 7.25, 7.67, 8.04, 8.12, 8.75.

Putting up 8 yards per play against peers generally gets you to the 90th percentile of passing offenses in America.

He averaged 7.96.

I’ve given the data on how he performed. From there, each individual has to decide for themselves whether it’s valuable or not.

He never had an offense that broke the S&P+ Top 80 at Central Michigan.

We can provide reasons for that in a particular year to mitigate the ranking and explain why it was so low that year. But the idea that there was a mitigating factor EVERY year as to why this offensive genius couldn't ever crack the top 80 when the offense was Top 25 the year before he got there and generally 40 to 50 the years before that? That's asking a lot.

 

[BoxingRobes]

I think its fair to say success over his career has been spotty, but the peaks are what we're hoping for here.

If I were to be inspired to have faith in this hire, its on the basis that most are saying its a home run hire and that he was the envy of many at the top of the SEC whether you are a fan, pundit, coach, etc. Maybe his name value and his perception outmatch his actual output, but the GenPop and Intelligentsia think its a great hire and hold him in high regard...thats got to count for something.

His gross and adjusted output leave a bit to be desired at the macro level and its definitely noted and a concern. Hoping for more of that 2015 Arkansas then anything else.

 

[LokiCane]

Hi Lance,

Great write up, been waiting for you to do this for Dan Enos. Great to have an OC who attach a defenses weak areas and get his best players in miss matches to exploit a defense.

 

[ShadowSpring]

3 of the best DCs in cfb wanted to hire Enos after they all had to game plan against them. That says a ton about the quality of coach we just got. Defensive coaches were lining up trying to hire him.

 

[Lance Roffers]

He never had an offense that broke the S&P+ Top 80 at Central Michigan.

We can provide reasons for that in a particular year to mitigate the ranking and explain why it was so low that year. But the idea that there was a mitigating factor EVERY year as to why this offensive genius couldn't ever crack the top 80 when the offense was Top 25 the year before he got there and generally 40 to 50 the years before that? That's asking a lot.

I've presented the data against his peers- which I believe to be the important data- if you want to take all of the data and evaluate him that way, that is absolutely your right. I believe the best- and most accurate- way to evaluate programs is to look at their results against peer teams. Some disagree and I understand that.

Take into consideration the fact he developed a QB after losing the only NFL QB in program history with these results, or not. Add the data from the games vs. P5 teams, and that's fine. Even with Butch Jones excellent season with an NFL QB they played three P5 teams and did this on offense:

Is that representative of what the offense is capable of, or is that more a reflection of a disparity in talent/resources?

The debate is one that could go on endlessly, so I will let this be the entirety of my case, and the individual can make their decision for themselves with that question.

 

[DiegoCane]

Yeah, I can't get there on CMU being a good offensive team when he was there. I think it is a fantastic reach. The end goal of an offense is to score points and be efficient.

Scoring/Efficiency
2010: 84th/80th
2011: 91st/74th
2012: 64th/71st
2013: 96th/103rd
2014: 81st/61st

 

[MedleyCane]

Not that this really adds to this interesting discussion on Enos, but I find it interesting that Enos'
predecessor at CMU (Butch Jones) was also on Saban's staff whilst Jones' OC at CMU and Cinncinnati
(Mike Bajakian) was on same Tampa Bay Bucs' staff with Enos' (new) OL coach Butch Barry.
Small world.