- Joined
- Dec 30, 2013
- Messages
- 2,645
Alabama FG makes it a three-score game again. Mesh on 3rd down with a deeper zone sit and Beck sees it. I do like how Georgia gave Beck options he could see quicker here on another 3rd-and-long. Great throw.
View attachment 317586
Bad throw. TE (Delp) is running along the numbers against cover-2. Beck has the ball float a bit back inside and it’s incomplete. If he throws it on the numbers it’s another deep completion. This QB is not afraid to fit that ball outside the numbers at all. This is what you hear about NFL throws all the time. These throws outside the numbers deep, having to fit it in tight spots is difficult and not many QB’s can do consistently.
View attachment 317587
Beck makes a looooong throw to get four yards. Really have not liked the Georgia offense at all. This isn’t sour grapes, if you read my Ward breakdown, I continuously praised their OC and his setup (which he’s now off to Oklahoma because he’s really good). Georgia asks their QB to sprint right repeatedly to avoid pressure, make long throws outside of the numbers in contested situations, all to gain five yards.
View attachment 317588
Ho-hum, asking Beck to convert another 4th down. He has to change another play at the LOS, with a deafening crowd, on 4th down.
View attachment 317589
Friends. This throw was a dot. And this was all Beck. He checks into the right call, makes a gorgeous throw to a spot only his guy can get it, with the game on-the-line. I’m aware of the narrative about Beck in this game, and that just really is something to me when I’m watching this game and I see the spots he was in on this kind of road environment the entire game and he keeps delivering.
View attachment 317590
Bad play here. Doesn’t secure the ball and fumbles. Can’t have it and he gives some of that good ju-ju back here.
View attachment 317591
It’s a perfect throw. Great coverage. No doubt about it. But your receiver has two hands on it and the position like a basketball rebounder. Need you to make a play, my man. This is a 30-yard rope that was as perfect as it gets. Tough catch, but need it.
View attachment 317592
Another fourth down you’re putting on your QB. Alabama clearly interferes again and this one called.
View attachment 317593
Give Beck time in the pocket and he will reward you with dots. All day it will be dots.
View attachment 317594
Dots on dots on dots. We’ve got an NFL QB, my friends. This throw is wonderful. Our old friend Colbie Young with the catch.
View attachment 317595
You see the back of a LB, you let it fly. Ball is halfway there before the TE looks for the ball. TD.
View attachment 317597
Something Beck does extraordinarily well is step up in the pocket and deliver downfield. If you can secure him with top tier tackles that give him time on the edge, he will navigate the pocket and throw dimes. In-stride between two defenders outside the numbers again.
View attachment 317598
Letting it fly right now. Deep and outside the numbers again.
View attachment 317599
Not a perfect throw. Lost a little juice late and the receiver made the adjustment to come back on it and catch it at the seven. What I want to reinforce is just how aggressive this player is downfield. If you give him an opportunity to test you deep, he will do it over-and-over again. That mentality is exactly what made Cam Ward who he was (Beck isn’t Cam Ward from a playmaker standpoint). I’m ok with the throw because you never overthrow a deep ball. Always underthrow it if you have to because your receiver is much more likely to find the ball and catch it or draw a PI flag. Overthrows are never caught- by definition.
View attachment 317600
It's now 33-28 and Beck has been put in impossible situations all night. You can’t run the ball. You can’t pass block on the right side. They’ve asked you to make plays on 4th down the entire night long. In Alabama at night. Yet, you’re still there making plays and throwing dots. I’m impressed with that, despite what you hear about the person off-the-field, the tape shows a highly competitive and football character player.
Now, what have I been saying about he will challenge you deep any chance you give him? Look at Alabama is signaling all over to pass routes off.
View attachment 317602
Beck is watching that lead receiver and identifying how they pass that off. If the defender signaling carries the #1 receiver deep, he will take #7 on an in-breaker. If he doesn’t, that leaves that safety 1-on-1 deep. That receiver is running a deep post-and-up. It’s what happens and he takes it.
Look at this throw. #71 is pushed into his lap. This ball is already in flight to this receiver. It’s a dime and it’s a TD. In this environment. After this start.
View attachment 317603
As we all know, Ryan Williams made an incredible play to steal it back for Alabama, but that has nothing to do with Carson Beck.
1st down is an out route dropped by receiver. 2nd down is a scramble as the pocket collapses where Beck gets yards upfield. (Not pictured)
Ho-hum dot on 4th down. Again.
View attachment 317605
He will challenge deep outside the numbers if you give him the look. He will throw dots on in-breakers if you make him. He will scramble if you get home. Not a perfect player, but he will challenge you. To both sides, not just one or the other. Goes deep down the left sideline and Young gets interfered with, but they inexplicably didn’t call it. (Not pictured)
Want to play QB? With the game on the line, gotta have this one. Giant jumping to throw over, backside pursuit from a cat. Receiver not out of his break yet. Ball is gone.
View attachment 317606
On the last interception, he didn’t have it. Tried to force it. Challenge you. Over-and-over. Sometimes they’re up to the challenge. I thought Young didn’t find the ball in time and didn’t fight enough for it, but it’s still a throw that he didn’t have. And what a play by that DB.
View attachment 317607
This was Beck’s first interception (which you can read the breakdown above), but after watching the entire game, I agree with this Tweet about how I’m more impressed by his second half. You can also see this receiver didn’t realize it was a slip screen called and caused the interception.
By the numbers:
This was a down season for Carson Beck. It was so poor his own teams’ fans were saying they were losing because of him and they were ready for him to leave. It was so poor NFL Draft evaluators were telling him to go back to school. With that in mind, clearly the numbers are going to paint a picture telling us how bad Carson Beck was, correct? You might be surprised.
In 2024, among all P4 teams, Carson Beck had what Pro Football Focus charted as 23 “Big Time Throws.” Essentially, a pass that is graded as having excellent ball placement and timing and is typically thrown into a tight window or further down the field.
Here is some data on Beck:
Negative Numbers:
- 8th in BTT
- 16th in Passing Grade
- 13th in Sack Percentage (a QB stat)
- 2nd most Drops
I am a huge proponent of Expected Points per Play (EPA) metric as the best descriptive stat available to us (stat that tells us what happened). You will see a large correlation between EPA per Play and winning, actual down-to-down performance, as well as just eye test alignment.
- 20 Turnover Worthy Plays (Ward – 17)
- YPA is more average 7.7 (with lots of drops)
- 9th most Batted Passes (10)
This metric attempts to measure what are the “expected points” for your team at the current spot (down, distance, field position) and then what is the change to that metric after the play. For instance, if it’s 3rd-and-7 and you gain five yards, that’s not the same as gaining five yards on 3rd-and-3.
Here is the net EPA for teams in 2024. I.E. what is the difference between their offensive EPA and their defensive EPA (chart was created by me):
View attachment 317608
You can see by the teams at the top, this year it does a great job of identifying the best teams. Conversely, here are the QB’s with the top EPA per Play (my chart):
View attachment 317609
Carson Beck in a year that he was second in the nation in passes dropped by his receivers (and first in lost yards), lost Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey from his receiving core and yet still finished 10th in EPA added per play.
Overall:
You know the numbers for Beck. You know he didn’t have the year he wanted overall and there are reasons he’s still in college after all this time. That said, we have a dude at QB. Review the above screenshots and look at the down-and-distances he was consistently placed in. I showed nearly every pass, so you can see how much Georgia placed on his shoulders and he carried them to excellent results. He was tasked with making changes at the LOS, handling pressure, tight window throws, and handling all of this in a huge road environment.
Carson Beck just raised the outlook of this season from one of trepidation to one of exhilaration. There were throws all over this game that are throws many NFL QB’s can’t make. Plays that were made that are top-20 level and I might even say fewer QB’s than that will make.
- I've read/heard the rumors about leadership and that very well could be true. He most certainly won't be Cam Ward in that regard. I can also say that I watched a player show incredible football character in a game he was down 14-0 before he caught his breath and 28-0 through no fault of his own. Yet, despite all of the adversity, he navigated all of the fourth down plays, having to be a one-dimensional offense the entire night, and a crazy environment to take the lead late in the 4th quarter. This is a guy who cares about something on that football field, no matter what you hear.
- Beck thrives on pre-snap motion and seeing the picture the defense is giving him.
- Beck is excellent under-center and can handle making adjustments on his own. Miami was a heavy RPO/Play-Action offense in 2024 and that will play well to Beck's strengths.
The Georgia offense put everything on Beck, in impossible situations, in an environment that is reserved for very few…and he put them on his back on fourth down after fourth down after fourth down and came through for them. Alabama never really stopped Beck in this game. Beck’s receivers let him down repeatedly. He had an awful fumble that impacted the game, and he didn’t see a hook defender on an interception, but he was marvelous in this one. Making some throws that absolutely make you believe you have another star at QB this year as Miami gives him time to pick apart defenses that he didn’t have this year. An offensive scheme tailor made for his stretch-the-field mentality when a defense tries to take away the underneath stuff that Air-Raid can live on.
Carson Beck was far more impressive than I anticipated him being in this one and I could not be happier to add this player to the fold. He’s number one in the portal for a reason; Georgia fans be darned.
Thanks for this breakdown. Great, as always.
", the TE crosses the LB's face & he's uncovered with at least 7yds of space in the End zone.
, is he accurate 
