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Upon Further Review: 20 Fall Camp Questions

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Mnhurricane said:
I know much is made about returning production but I’d be curious to see a breakdown of where other teams stand. Not sure it’s as big of a positive in certain areas like OL as some fans may think tbh
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Miami returns the most OL starts in the history of the NCAA. COVID certainly impacts it, but yes, they’re very experienced.

Last I saw, Miami is 6th in returning production from an Expected Points standpoint.

S&P+ projections have Miami as #11 overall this season. My projections have them 8th.

If Miami finishes the season ranked between 8-11 I’d think fans would be ecstatic.
 
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robbymoto said:
Excellent statistical work as always. However, if we win 9 games that would be under achieving yet again. Of course, 9 wins would pacify Blake James but certainly not anyone else. We have a 24 year old QB, a ton of production returning and we play in the worst division in P5. Manny has no execuses left and must take the next step.
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9-3 is probably a 60th percentile outcome because of Alabama. It reduces your ceiling to have them on the schedule because it’s a guaranteed “1” in the loss.

UNC is another game we will be projected to lose.

In a generic sense, Vegas essentially takes your percentages to win each game and puts them together to get your season win total. They’ll juice it to over/under if need be, but that’s basic gist.

Getting like a .1 in one game (against Alabama is a killer). UNC you probably get .4. Getting a half win out of two games really hurts your overall projection.

I see why fans think 10 wins should be expected, and that’s my hope as well, fact is, you’re likely to lose three with this schedule.

I think hitting the 9 pacifies things for another year. Then a reduction puts Diaz on hot seat if that happened.
 
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Lance Roffers said:
9-3 is probably a 60th percentile outcome because of Alabama. It reduces your ceiling to have them on the schedule because it’s a guaranteed “1” in the loss.

UNC is another game we will be projected to lose.

In a generic sense, Vegas essentially takes your percentages to win each game and puts them together to get your season win total. They’ll juice it to over/under if need be, but that’s basic gist.

Getting like a .1 in one game (against Alabama is a killer). UNC you probably get .4. Getting a half win out of two games really hurts your overall projection.

I see why fans think 10 wins should be expected, and that’s my hope as well, fact is, you’re likely to lose three with this schedule.

I think hitting the 9 pacifies things for another year. Then a reduction puts Diaz on hot seat if that happened.
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Who might be loss 3 if we lose to Bama and UNC?
 
Canedog said:
Miami looking at Scaife starting at RT over Williams? Not so fast, my friend. This will be a hotly contested camp battle between two players fighting for a chance to possibly play at the next level. Scaife may win the job, but its far from a given.
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If you read it was a given, that was unintended. I re-read it and it seems like I was open to both of them and listed stats for both. The fact does remain he held him off during the spring and is favored to be the RT as of today.

Either one as a swing tackle is a nice depth piece. Having John Campbell as a 4th OT is huge for Miami. He's a guy who started games for Miami in the past and having him be a 4th depth T is something I do not remember Miami having in several years.

Experienced depth is such a welcomed change along the OL.
 
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I think Diaz and his staff’s ability to recruit the last couple cycles, this year’s and a loaded next year class which they have already made inroads with will be a factor in his job security going into next season. I think he definitely returns with 8 wins, with TRob on staff and the recruits we are in it for this cycle and next.
 
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Hoyacane1620 said:
I think NC State is going to be a tough game this season. Unless they get hit by injuries again...

Whatever happens Week 1, the team needs to stay focused for App State.
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This is where the rubber meets the road in the "Can Manny be a DC and HC also and be successful?" debate because he essentially has to prepare himself mentally for 3 post-Bama game scenarios regarding this team:

**Getting blown out by Bama "UNC" style - Team is in the dumps. Embarrassed on national TV again. Fans screaming for Mannys head. Team morale is down and season hasnt even started.

**Losing to Bama in a VERY CLOSE game - Loss wears on the mind even though team isnt totally in the dumps. The "What could have been?" questions linger in the teams head. Can he get them back on focus for App State?

**We beat Bama - This is simple..Can he fight off the "Is Miami finally back??" demons that have haunted this program for over a decade.
 
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