CaneMutiny06
Sophomore
- Joined
- Nov 3, 2011
- Messages
- 1,266
Ya Sagarin has “hated” us for years be size of the recent prior history factor.Power ratings (as opposed to rankings/power rankings) don’t take resume into consideration. They are used by oddsmakers to set lines on games.
If the 3rd best team in the country plays the best team week 1, and the 2nd best team week 2, and loses both games, they might drop in ranking (i.e., out of the top 25). But it’s power rating might still say they are the 3rd best team in the nation and would be favored on a neutral field over every team except 1 & 2.
407 was saying our rating should have us at 6 or 7.
Here is sagarin (who set odds for USA Today for many years), who has us at 18. And ESPN sp+, who has us at 10.
These are likely still low because the algos still heavily incorporate priors. By ~week 4 you’ll see this years games get weighted much more than priors, and our rating will likely jump some at that time.
18 & 10 still seem very low. Maybe we still have a few more weeks to buy Miami cheap.
Still a ways to go before the preseason ratings get filtered out of the metrics. I would be curious to see what the SP+ numbers look like in a week without them though.