forums

Up to #5 in AP, still at #5 in the Coaches poll

Advertisement
Here’s a fun fact (Since 2004):

Our record in August/September: 57-20 (.740 win%)

Our record in October: 45-31 (.591 win%)

Our record in November: 42-35 (.545 win%)

Our record in December: 1-2 (.333 win%)*
*Only regular season games - no bowl games

Another fun fact:
Richt-Diaz had the best November stretch out of any regime: From 2016-2021, we went 16-6 in November (.727 win%).

Followed by:
Golden-Scott regime was: 11-10 (.523 win%)
Coker-Shannon regime was: 13-15 (.464 win%)
Cristobal: 2-6* (.250 win%)
*1st 2 seasons, thus far.

Point being, it looks great to be #10 right now; what we must avoid are the October - November let downs. We must, MUST break this daunting trend.

I’m of the opinion that we are a deserving Top 10 ranking. I’m of the belief that based upon the personnel, we have a clear path to the Top 12 CFP. I’m of the belief that this yr, we break the late season curse. I would be ABSOLUTELY shocked (& not much shock me) if we continue this dreadful trend some 20 yrs later.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
It's the second week. It pretty much IS a power ranking right now.
Click to expand...
Power ratings (as opposed to rankings/power rankings) don’t take resume into consideration. They are used by oddsmakers to set lines on games.

If the 3rd best team in the country plays the best team week 1, and the 2nd best team week 2, and loses both games, they might drop in ranking (i.e., out of the top 25). But it’s power rating might still say they are the 3rd best team in the nation and would be favored on a neutral field over every team except 1 & 2.

407 was saying our rating should have us at 6 or 7.

Here is sagarin (who set odds for USA Today for many years), who has us at 18. And ESPN sp+, who has us at 10.

These are likely still low because the algos still heavily incorporate priors. By ~week 4 you’ll see this years games get weighted much more than priors, and our rating will likely jump some at that time.

18 & 10 still seem very low. Maybe we still have a few more weeks to buy Miami cheap.
 

Attachments

  • IMG_5746.png
    IMG_5746.png
    207.2 KB · Views: 0
  • IMG_5745.png
    IMG_5745.png
    321.4 KB · Views: 0
Rellyrell said:
Here’s a fun fact (Since 2004):

Our record in August/September: 57-20 (.740 win%)

Our record in October: 45-31 (.591 win%)

Our record in November: 42-35 (.545 win%)

Our record in December: 1-2 (.333 win%)*
*Only regular season games - no bowl games

Another fun fact:
Richt-Diaz had the best November stretch out of any regime: From 2016-2021, we went 16-6 in November (.727 win%).

Followed by:
Golden-Scott regime was: 11-10 (.523 win%)
Coker-Shannon regime was: 13-15 (.464 win%)
Cristobal: 2-6* (.250 win%)
*1st 2 seasons, thus far.

Point being, it looks great to be #10 right now; what we must avoid are the October - November let downs. We must, MUST break this daunting trend.

I’m of the opinion that we are a deserving Top 10 ranking. I’m of the belief that based upon the personnel, we have a clear path to the Top 12 CFP. I’m of the belief that this yr, we break the late season curse. I would be ABSOLUTELY shocked (& not much shock me) if we continue this dreadful trend some 20 yrs later.
Click to expand...
IF we assume Miami's unquestioned path to CFPO is through ACC's gate--either as Champ or ranked high enough runner-up, let's review the last decade of futility:

2014: 3-5 (Champ 8-0; R/U: 6-2)
2015: 5-3 (Champ 8-0; R/U: 8-0)
2016: 5-3 (Champ 7-1; R/U: 6-2)
2017: 7-1 (Champ 7-1; R/U: 7-1*)
2018: 4-4 (Champ 8-0; R/U: 6-2)
2019: 4-4 (Champ 8-0; R/U: 6-2)
2020: 7-2 (Champ 8-1; R/U: 9-0)**
2021: 5-3 (Champ 7-1; R/U: 7-1)
2022: 3-5 (Champ 8-0; R/U: 6-2)
2023: 3-5 (Champ 8-0; R/U: 7-1)

*Miami
**COVID year

Our University of Miami Hurricanes have always shot themselves in the foot being at least 1 game, if not more, out of the race by mid-October. With the exception of 2017, even when they were still "in it", they always found themselves in the "we need help" scenario.

This team simply must break that curse. From the start of ACC play through the end, they have to take command of the field and rely on no one but themselves to punch their ticket to Charlotte***.

***Ref: Al Golden's Deserve Victory!, page 1,345

Moral of the Story: Win and you're in cat daddy. Drop a tilt and at best you're in Loser's Bracket, at worst you out like a sorority girl doing the walk of shame.
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
TwentySix said:
I hate the “no reason to complain, the polls will work themselves out” crowd. Nobody who has watched these teams thinks Bama, Oregon, or Penn State are better football teams than Miami but we have to put a higher number next to their name because of preconceived notions? So dumb.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it is week 2. In the nations defense, we looked like a top 5 team at this time last year. And we've been "back" for 20 years.

But this year is highlighting the blind hype train as obviously **** teams/players are miraculously being ****.
 
Rellyrell said:
Here’s a fun fact (Since 2004):

Our record in August/September: 57-20 (.740 win%)

Our record in October: 45-31 (.591 win%)

Our record in November: 42-35 (.545 win%)

Our record in December: 1-2 (.333 win%)*
*Only regular season games - no bowl games

Another fun fact:
Richt-Diaz had the best November stretch out of any regime: From 2016-2021, we went 16-6 in November (.727 win%).

Followed by:
Golden-Scott regime was: 11-10 (.523 win%)
Coker-Shannon regime was: 13-15 (.464 win%)
Cristobal: 2-6* (.250 win%)
*1st 2 seasons, thus far.

Point being, it looks great to be #10 right now; what we must avoid are the October - November let downs. We must, MUST break this daunting trend.

I’m of the opinion that we are a deserving Top 10 ranking. I’m of the belief that based upon the personnel, we have a clear path to the Top 12 CFP. I’m of the belief that this yr, we break the late season curse. I would be ABSOLUTELY shocked (& not much shock me) if we continue this dreadful trend some 20 yrs later.
Click to expand...
September/ October is for pretenders and Nov/ December is for contenders.
 
TwentySix said:
I hate the “no reason to complain, the polls will work themselves out” crowd. Nobody who has watched these teams thinks Bama, Oregon, or Penn State are better football teams than Miami but we have to put a higher number next to their name because of preconceived notions? So dumb.
Click to expand...
lol. The polls that determine playoffs start in 4 more weeks are so. These polls are just click bait
 
TheOriginalCane said:
Eventually, the SEC teams have to play other SEC teams.

That's when we can move up, assuming that we keep winning.
Click to expand...
Except MO who only plays Alabama of the top sec schools. Could sneak in to sec playoff.

Much easier path than other sec teams. Offset by they aren’t as good as ga and tx
 
Advertisement
Rellyrell said:
Here’s a fun fact (Since 2004):

Our record in August/September: 57-20 (.740 win%)

Our record in October: 45-31 (.591 win%)

Our record in November: 42-35 (.545 win%)

Our record in December: 1-2 (.333 win%)*
*Only regular season games - no bowl games

Another fun fact:
Richt-Diaz had the best November stretch out of any regime: From 2016-2021, we went 16-6 in November (.727 win%).

Followed by:
Golden-Scott regime was: 11-10 (.523 win%)
Coker-Shannon regime was: 13-15 (.464 win%)
Cristobal: 2-6* (.250 win%)
*1st 2 seasons, thus far.

Point being, it looks great to be #10 right now; what we must avoid are the October - November let downs. We must, MUST break this daunting trend.

I’m of the opinion that we are a deserving Top 10 ranking. I’m of the belief that based upon the personnel, we have a clear path to the Top 12 CFP. I’m of the belief that this yr, we break the late season curse. I would be ABSOLUTELY shocked (& not much shock me) if we continue this dreadful trend some 20 yrs later.
Click to expand...
Since 2004 explains a lot. The difference in talent pre 2004 and post 2004 is night and day different. Its much easier to suck when you have mediocre players playing against the likes of other mediocre teams.

This is the most talented team we have had since 04. I think the results will be different regardless of the month.
 
Advertisement
Colombie said:
More than likely there will be little to no movement the next couple of weeks.

However, did anyone really see Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois?
Click to expand...
This weeks games are pretty weak overall for CFB. Best game looks to be Friday night with Arizona and K State. Other than that, it looks to be a snooze fest weekend...................unless another NIU peaks from behind the curtain.
 
mcnaire2004 said:
They already came out and said they like it. Beyond fair access to the playoff plus a chance to host a playoff game. They don't care about getting a by
Click to expand...
Notre Dame doing Notre Dame things like the Rat at Disney: ND had all sorts of connections beginning with the early Bowl Selection committee: coaches, former Players, even Condolezza Rice. They stay in the mix:
"Notre Dame alum is new chairman of College Football Playoff Selection Committee" (Boo Corrigan)
 
Silver King said:
Notre Dame doing Notre Dame things like the Rat at Disney: ND had all sorts of connections beginning with the early Bowl Selection committee: coaches, former Players, even Condolezza Rice. They stay in the mix:
"Notre Dame alum is new chairman of College Football Playoff Selection Committee" (Boo Corrigan)
Click to expand...
Yeah, they working it
 
Advertisement
Zombie-Cane said:
This weeks games are pretty weak overall for CFB. Best game looks to be Friday night with Arizona and K State. Other than that, it looks to be a snooze fest weekend...................unless another NIU peaks from behind the curtain.
Click to expand...
Maybe.
Although a game no one is really talking about is Oregon / Oregon State. I think there may be a chance for an upset there only cause it is a State rivalry and Oregon has not looked great.
 
Those weeks with sleepy schedules usually find a way to create excitement. Two weeks ago everyone was talking about how Notre Dame's schedule was so weak that only maybe USC or FSU could beat them after the TAMU game. Then BAM. There will be a game one of those games this weekend. There always is.
 
let’s creep up the next two weeks. Be in good position before conference games.
This year it obviously matters. Get separation from #12.
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
Back
Top