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2023 The books are cooked and the star system is a complete a joke.

If the argument is that recruiting services favor the Bamas, Georgias, and Ohio states then yes, I agree. From the business side it makes sense though. You want your rankings to be right. How are they right? By having your 4 and 5 star players either be top collegiate players or high picks in the NFL. That is more likely to happen at the marquee programs that are consistently good to great.

Miami has totally **** the bed when it comes to development over the last 20 years. So I get why they might drop a player down a little if he commits to Miami. Is it morally right? No. But it makes sense from the business side.

In this instance, the drop happened because On3 has Wayne at 93rd overall player. And they ****ed up the backend and fixed it.

If you don’t believe their story that their eng team missed something and they fixed then idk what to tell you. I guess what we’re saying then is that someone at 247 was on standby waiting for Wayne to pick Miami so they could drop him to a 4 star? Or they coded something on the backend that automatically drops a player when he commits to Miami? Seems far fetched to me.

@Bender didn’t want to derail Wayne’s commitment thread so responded here.

And @Cryptical Envelopment is 100% right. Even by favoring recruits that are being recruited by Bama, Georgia, Ohio State they still get the rankings wrong more often than not. So how do they solve that? Make everyone a 4 star 😂
 
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Something I haven’t seen mentioned here is how this also affects 3-stars. If a kid can’t get into the club when the velvet rope is that weak, then it has to bring up some question marks.

I have always been amazed at the expectations that this board has had for some players that came in with some fairly low rankings.

I think any 3-star that develops into more than a limited contributor should be considered a bonus and not an expectation.

More than that, taking some 3s should be for long shots for untapped potential such as foreign, new-to-the-game or injured. Players flying under the radar where there is potential upside that has not been seen by the rating agencies. I would prefer to see that more than a bunch of jags.
 
Gi0logy said:
If the argument is that recruiting services favor the Bamas, Georgias, and Ohio states then yes, I agree. From the business side it makes sense though. You want your rankings to be right. How are they right? By having your 4 and 5 star players either be top collegiate players or high picks in the NFL. That is more likely to happen at the marquee programs that are consistently good to great.

Miami has totally **** the bed when it comes to development over the last 20 years. So I get why they might drop a player down a little if he commits to Miami. Is it morally right? No. But it makes sense from the business side.

In this instance, the drop happened because On3 has Wayne at 93rd overall player. And they ****ed up the backend and fixed it.

If you don’t believe their story that their eng team missed something and they fixed then idk what to tell you. I guess what we’re saying then is that someone at 247 was on standby waiting for Wayne to pick Miami so they could drop him to a 4 star? Or they coded something on the backend that automatically drops a player when he commits to Miami? Seems far fetched to me.

@Bender didn’t want to derail Wayne’s commitment thread so responded here.

And @Cryptical Envelopment is 100% right. Even by favoring recruits that are being recruited by Bama, Georgia, Ohio State they still get the rankings wrong more often than not. So how do they solve that? Make everyone a 4 star 😂
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What happened with Wayne is fvcked up. That said, I would argue that these rankings have overrated our talent for years. We consistently recruit in the top 20 and sometimes dip into the top 10ish range but don’t deliver.
 
FrancisSawyer said:
While I agree with much of what you are trying to get across as far as the accuracy of the ratings overall, I'm going to have to disagree with you on your statement regarding 5 stars. You say that if these ratings were accurate then the entire 1st round and 1st 5 picks of round 2 would be taken by these players and that makes no sense to me. It's a long way from High School to the NFL and players who are considered 5 stars in high school and in terms of college potential won't necessarily be considered 1st round picks in the NFL. There is a lot that happens between signing day and draft day. There are too many factors that come into play like injury, development or lack thereof, system fit, maybe the player peaked in high school or maybe the 17 year old 5 star doesn't posses the maturity to justify being a 1st rounder. It doesn't matter how "accurate" the star system is, you could never expect things to stay the same in terms of potential desirability to the NFL for those 37 players after going through a crucible like the college football experience. You could say the same for 4 stars. When you consider how many high school football teams and players there are across the country, I don't think 362 4 stars is so unreasonable. Just my 2 cents.
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Regarding the 5-stars, you're actually not disagreeing with me. You're just listing excuses (fair or not) for the guys who rank these kids and telling us why it's impossible for them to do their job accurately. And maybe they do have an impossible job. Logic would tell me that having guys who woke up one day, couldn't get a job coaching or scouting for a HS program, and declared themselves as "experts" probably means there are a ton of people out there who could do a better job than they do.

As far as the 362 4-stars or whatever... no. There is a massive difference between the 38th and 338th player. And that's according to the people who rank them. They are telling us that one is worth a ton more than the other. But they are still both "4-stars" lol. You don't understand why?

If you understand math, probability, marketing, and PR, you clearly understand what's happening here. It's a giant, biased, amateur joke of system designed to prop the websites up and fool people into keeping their subscriptions running.
 
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cway313 said:
Allow me to point out that every one of these players won't leave for the draft in 3 years. The 3-5 year window could theoretically allow all these players to be drafted. Having 400 4+ star players is obnoxious though I agree.
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Yes but every draft has kids coming in from three difference classes or so, so it balances out. Same thing. Know what I mean?
 
DTP said:
It’s possible but recruiting is national now.

I was a fan of 247 using the first round of the NFL draft as a gauge for 5 stars. 32 first round picks every year, 32 5 star players
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32 is a fake and artificial number.

Plus, 247 has only given out four 5-star ratings thus far, to Arch, Malachi, Nico, and Cormani.
 
DTP said:
Miami needs more subscribers to 247. They always throw bones to their biggest money makers.
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They've picked up ALOT the past 6 months. I don't recognize 90% of the member "handles".... All new people.

UNC is their largest fan base...
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
Regarding the 5-stars, you're actually not disagreeing with me. You're just listing excuses (fair or not) for the guys who rank these kids and telling us why it's impossible for them to do their job accurately. And maybe they do have an impossible job. Logic would tell me that having guys who woke up one day, couldn't get a job coaching or scouting for a HS program, and declared themselves as "experts" probably means there are a ton of people out there who could do a better job than they do.

As far as the 362 4-stars or whatever... no. There is a massive difference between the 38th and 338th player. And that's according to the people who rank them. They are telling us that one is worth a ton more than the other. But they are still both "4-stars" lol. You don't understand why?

If you understand math, probability, marketing, and PR, you clearly understand what's happening here. It's a giant, biased, amateur joke of system designed to prop the websites up and fool people into keeping their subscriptions running.
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I wasn't really disagreeing with you in general. Just those 2 examples I noted. As for your last line, well yeah that's more or less understood by most with some gray matter. Whenever you have such a simplistic labeling system for something so variable, and complex as talent and ability to play a sport then you are naturally going to have wild inconsistencies as the reality of each individual situation begins to assert itself. By it's very nature the entire thing should be taken with a grain of salt and used accordingly. The problem here is that many don't stop the think of these things and start mistaking such a system for an accurate representation of reality.
 
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Hoyacane1620 said:
They've picked up ALOT the past 6 months. I don't recognize 90% of the member "handles".... All new people.

UNC is their largest fan base...
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Agreed. I don't go on there anymore ever since they changed the layout and included ads, but the last time I did I probably only recognized a few names out of about 50 commenting and had been a member since '16 or '17.
 
FrancisSawyer said:
I wasn't really disagreeing with you in general. Just those 2 examples I noted. As for your last line, well yeah that's more or less understood by most with some gray matter. Whenever you have such a simplistic labeling system for something so variable, and complex as talent and ability to play a sport then you are naturally going to have wild inconsistencies as the reality of each individual situation begins to assert itself. By it's very nature the entire thing should be taken with a grain of salt and used accordingly. The problem here is that many don't stop the think of these things and start mistaking such a system for an accurate representation of reality.
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I've said it before and I will say it again, it should be used "for entertainment purposed only."

If you really care about who your team is getting, look at the offers. I'm as excited about our two 3-star TE's as I could be. We beat Clemson (flip) and Bama for them.

But even that's hard because the offers are "claimed" and early non-commitable ones stay up on these site. It's the word of the kids.

And the rankings are really the only quantifiable thing that's out there. So people gravitate to them. For gods sake the services have that 165lb small school Plan B kid the Gators just took above Robby Washington, who Bama is desperately trying to flip from us as I type this.
 
TheOriginalCane said:
32 is a fake and artificial number.

Plus, 247 has only given out four 5-star ratings thus far, to Arch, Malachi, Nico, and Cormani.
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At one point, they designated 32 5 star players per class because it was supposed to translate to 32 picks in the first round. I like the idea of keeping the number low because it means something to be one of thirty two. There’s so many four star players now, it doesn’t mean anything anymore. I also like the fact that they haven’t given out more than a handful of 5 star grades so far. These kids haven’t even played their senior season yet. There’s a lot of room for guys to move up or down the board with a whole season of football to play.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
There are now 399 kids ranked 5 and 4-star by 247. I kid you not. This is not a drill. They keep raising it.

There are 37 5-stars and 362 4-stars.

Think about that. If these ranking ever went chalk and were actually right, the entire first round of the NFL draft all the way through the 5th pick of the second round would all be former 5-stars.

But the 4-stars are were the most corruption occurs. Again, there are 362 4-stars. 362!!! And there are about 262~ TOTAL picks in the NFL draft. And think about how irrelevant the last two rounds are. That means that once the 5-stars are taken in the first and top of the second round, there are only 225 picks that remain in the entire NFL draft. That means that, again, if the rankers were correct, and the draft went chalk, 137 4-stars... WHO LIVED UP TO THEIR RATING, AS IN WERE ACTUALLY ONE OF THE TOP 399 KIDS IN THEIR CLASS, would go undrafted!

So the ratings services are telling you that the 38th best player in the NFL draft (early 2nd rounder and instant multi-millionaire) and the 137th best undrafted free agent, who will be lucky to make a practice squad, ARE BOTH 4-STARS!!

It's a joke. They flood the market with 4-stars (and 5-stars for that matter), and then when they hit on one out of four, they crow about it.

And here’s is 2020 NFL Draft breakdown by stars, according to 247Sports.com:
  • Five-star: 19
  • Four-star: 73
  • Three-star: 110
  • Two-star: 32
  • Not Ranked: 21
Only 19 of the 37 5-stars were even DRAFTED!! And they only went 73 for 225 with the 4-stars, but they had 362 chances!

Here is the 2019 first round breakdown btw:
  • 5-stars: 6
  • 4-stars: 15
  • 3-stars: 10
  • 2-stars: 0
  • 1-star: 0
  • Unranked: 1
LOL. They went 5 for 32.

Now, yes, there is of COURSE a correlation between rankings and talent. But as I've said, your near-blind grandmother can point out the 5-stars and most of the top 100 kids on the field and be as right as these wannabe fake scouts. The coaches and talent guys who are actually good at their jobs (and are paid by teams to do them) can tell you the massive game-changing difference between #50 and #350. They don't pile them all together and pray.

Look, this is all entertainment, I get that. And we need to go by SOMETHING when we BS about these kids. Fine, so use the scores. 247 gives a composite 1-100 score on each player.

For example, Malik Muhammad, CB from Dallas has a rating of .9835 while Dylan Edwards, RB from Derby, KS has a rating of .8903 and yes, as you can guess, they are both 4-stars, even with a massive gap in their ratings.

So yeah, one school gets 10 4-stars in the top 100 (mostly projected first three round picks), and another get 10 guys in the top 400 (all projected UFA's) and people point to them as comparable. No.

And yeah, even though these scores are created by 1099 guys who aren't qualified to coach JV girls football or write about sports for a real outlet, if you must give them some credence, don't talk to me about stars.

Me? I look at the OFFERS. Because those are handed out by professional football people.

Fin.
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Trust in Highsmith's evals until he gives a reason not to.
 
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Ridiculous

Screenshot_20220710-111856_Twitter.webp
 
TheOriginalCane said:
32 is a fake and artificial number.

Plus, 247 has only given out four 5-star ratings thus far, to Arch, Malachi, Nico, and Cormani.
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Wow it only takes going through the top 4 players in the country to find out how much of a joke and biased the rankings are.

Arch is NOT the best player in the country and does not deserve a perfect score.
 
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Just a FYI; 247 is a composite website. I know it’s easy to place the blame on 247 for the rating drop, since they’ve become top dog, but 247 always had Jayden as a 4-star (in house), but had him as a composite 5-star based upon their score + rivals + ESPN, & as of June 3rd, On3 @LeedsCane

So for Wayne to now be considered a 4-star per 247’s composite, that means one of those other 3 sites dropped his rating (On3), which lowered his overall composite score.

Now let me be clear, b/c we are starting to sound like Gator fans w/ all this star checking; these sites r not 100% accurate when it comes to evals or predictions, but per tangible evidence provided, their evals r right more often than not. Hence, it has created a star-gazing phenomena regarding recruits. I wanna give On3 a pass since they are new, however their founder has been in the game for a minute, so I’m not sure what’s their criteria out in Nashville, but it’s ****ing me off. W/ that being said, u need a staff that still does it’s own evaluation, & if the two mesh, perfect fit.

Like @Liberty City El stated in his re-post, these rankings can be subjective. I know for a fact offers does play a role in ranking; so do camps, the area u play in, school competition, stats, measurable, etc. Again, it’s not perfect, but I already posted in another thread about % of players that have been drafted as 5 stars, 4 stars, 3 stars. The NFL has a lot of 3 & below star players in it b/c of the talent pool is overwhelmingly in favor of such players, but the teams who recruit the perceived blue chips r dominating CFB & those same players have a much higher % of entering the league.

This article **** near verbatim what I said in the “Do Stars Matter?” thread we had. There’ll be a time, soon, when a commit to Miami is considered prestige again, & we won’t see this trend of a player getting bumped down. We have an elite evaluator & recruiter now, & the W’s will follow.

lastwordonsports.com

What Do Those Star Ratings Mean?

When discussing recruits, we often hear that star ratings mean very little. We analyze the question: what do those star ratings mean exactly?
lastwordonsports.com
 
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bobbydigius said:
What happened with Wayne is fvcked up. That said, I would argue that these rankings have overrated our talent for years. We consistently recruit in the top 20 and sometimes dip into the top 10ish range but don’t deliver.
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Coaching. Look how many became NFL studs after leaving Miami
 
While Ol' Gaby has nothing to do with how this went down, the caping and pearl clutching for the dude on Twitter is embarrassing.

He busts his *** everyday for US! STOP tagging him NOW! You ingrates!!!

I mean c'mon. He collects a paycheck from 247 and they as an overall entity shouldn't be immune from criticism because we may like one of their employees. ****, Gaby himself shouldn't be immune from criticism of who he works for if you don't like what the company is doing or has done.

Everyone should put on their big boy pants. This isn't a charity being criticized and practicing crony based restraint from criticism only renders all your other opinions tainted.
 
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