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Terrence Lewis decommits

Cryptical Envelopment said:
DUDE. NO ONE here knows how to evaluate talent, lol. The 32 NFL GM's in the world and the 32 personnel VP's get to watch every moment of multiple years of ESPN/CBS/FOX/Coaches tape of fully developed 21 and 22 year olds, interview for hours, get the opinions of armies of scouts, work out, test, do background, combine, wonderlics... you name it. And they hit about 50% of the time. Coin flip. You know the hit rate of first round QB's??? It ain't good.

Not picking on you, but if I see one more message board poster talk about how he watched a 16 year old HS kids "film," or reviewed his "tape," or other coach speak from fanboys I am going buy 1000 clown noses and give them out for free at the CIS company picnic. We watch YouTube highlights, brah. At best. The end. While our kids drop mashed potatoes on our heads. And fans make burgers and do people's taxes, and pick up garbage and other stupid regular stuff. Even the people here who know what they are talking about the best, and can make it look good are mostly HS coaches trying their best. Roman can talk circles around probably everyone here, and what does he do for a living?

No offense intended towards anyone btw, I am in the same boat. I'm just the only one willing to admit it lol.

Ah, that felt good. Had been building up for a while. :)
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Dumb af. There's a reason 5 stars and 4 stars end up being drafted wayyy more often than 3 stars. That's the result of evals. Sure, only about 57% of 5 stars are drafted. But that's really high compared to 3 stars (7%) and 2 stars (1%).

And nice, a lot of first round qbs don't pan out. Guess what? They pan out at a way higher rate than those drafted in other rounds. 20/32 of current NFL starting quarterbacks were drafted in the first round.
 
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Cryptical Envelopment said:
DUDE. NO ONE here knows how to evaluate talent, lol. The 32 NFL GM's in the world and the 32 personnel VP's get to watch every moment of multiple years of ESPN/CBS/FOX/Coaches tape of fully developed 21 and 22 year olds, interview for hours, get the opinions of armies of scouts, work out, test, do background, combine, wonderlics... you name it. And they hit about 50% of the time. Coin flip. You know the hit rate of first round QB's??? It ain't good.

Not picking on you, but if I see one more message board poster talk about how he watched a 16 year old HS kids "film," or reviewed his "tape," or other coach speak from fanboys I am going buy 1000 clown noses and give them out for free at the CIS company picnic. We watch YouTube highlights, brah. At best. The end. While our kids drop mashed potatoes on our heads. And fans make burgers and do people's taxes, and pick up garbage and other stupid regular stuff. Even the people here who know what they are talking about the best, and can make it look good are mostly HS coaches trying their best. Roman can talk circles around probably everyone here, and what does he do for a living?

No offense intended towards anyone btw, I am in the same boat. I'm just the only one willing to admit it lol.

Ah, that felt good. Had been building up for a while. :)
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I'd say just about everyone here knows how to evaluate talent,...just at different levels with different results. It's not a black or white issue and there's a sea of grey that separates observers.

You mentioned the # of strikeouts GMs can have and the player titled in this thread is the perfect example of where the challenge of evaluating character is much, much more problematic than evaluating talent. Every miss out there isin't because the ability observed on the field was wrong.

YouTube highlights are missing alot and the ones that have been around for awhile know that that's not any true evaluation. You're only looking for upside and ability with highlights and you stop there.

Lastly, those said highlights don't address the people that legitimately go to games and bring back information,...or have watched entire tapes of games.

No need to stick your head in the sand regarding the information that random people put out there. Just gotta get a little more adept @ properly deciding what to do with it.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
DUDE. NO ONE here knows how to evaluate talent, lol. The 32 NFL GM's in the world and the 32 personnel VP's get to watch every moment of multiple years of ESPN/CBS/FOX/Coaches tape of fully developed 21 and 22 year olds, interview for hours, get the opinions of armies of scouts, work out, test, do background, combine, wonderlics... you name it. And they hit about 50% of the time. Coin flip. You know the hit rate of first round QB's??? It ain't good.

Not picking on you, but if I see one more message board poster talk about how he watched a 16 year old HS kids "film," or reviewed his "tape," or other coach speak from fanboys I am going buy 1000 clown noses and give them out for free at the CIS company picnic. We watch YouTube highlights, brah. At best. The end. While our kids drop mashed potatoes on our heads. And fans make burgers and do people's taxes, and pick up garbage and other stupid regular stuff. Even the people here who know what they are talking about the best, and can make it look good are mostly HS coaches trying their best. Roman can talk circles around probably everyone here, and what does he do for a living?

No offense intended towards anyone btw, I am in the same boat. I'm just the only one willing to admit it lol.

Ah, that felt good. Had been building up for a while. :)
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Football isn’t rocket science. I get what your saying. But what u look for are measurables, test numbers etc. then you want to see it translated on tape. If a kid has length and explosive testing numbers and it shows up on the tape then you can see it immediately..but the more nuanced stuff, personality, work ethic, love for the game is something you can’t judge off tape. So your right in some ways. But there’s a direct correlation from the elite programs who stack the best industry talent and on field success. That’s a fact
 
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JeddTheFisch said:
Must hold out for Flowe. Forget these Maryland guys. Flowe will give us 6 quarters of the best LBing we've ever seen. One in a hundred years kind of talent. Maybe a thousand.
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didn't flowe just sign a big NIL deal with Marshawn a few months back, why would he leave oregon? are we guessing or has someone mentioned it's coming?
 
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jhtheking said:
Dumb af. There's a reason 5 stars and 4 stars end up being drafted wayyy more often than 3 stars. That's the result of evals. Sure, only about 57% of 5 stars are drafted. But that's really high compared to 3 stars (7%) and 2 stars (1%).

And nice, a lot of first round qbs don't pan out. Guess what? They pan out at a way higher rate than those drafted in other rounds. 20/32 of current NFL starting quarterbacks were drafted in the first round.
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Dumf af.

Did you know that there are more 4 and 5 star rated kids each year than there are TOTAL NFL DRAFT PICKS? By a LOT. Whoops. Yep, the 36th best player in the US and the 377th best player in the US are both... rated 4-star kids. LOL. In the draft that's the difference between a $9M NFL contract and submitting an application at Enterprise Rent-A-Car.

Guess what? That's the dirty little secret that the websites pull on what they see as math-illiterate people like yourself. The websites give themselves a ton of chips to spread around and then get to say they were right. There are only about 256 picks in the NFL Draft (including compensatory). And there are 377 4 and 5 star kids as I type this on 247. The 377th best player in the NFL Draft isn't even getting a UFA INVITE. But they get to say he's a 4-star. And you fall for it.

You're telling me that more 4 and 5 stars gets drafted than 3 stars? LOL. I would f'ing hope so. When they give a kid a 3-star rating they are basically telling you they would hypothetically project him in the 12th - 20th rounds of an endless draft. Yet a ton break through, even into the first round. As do 2-star and unrated kids they totally miss. Because outside of the obvious kid's that my blind grandmother could point out as obviously the best kid on the field, the unqualified hacks that rate these kids are throwing darts. They just gives themselves 10x as many darts as they should need to assure "success." And they still fail a ton.
 
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305to954 said:
Football isn’t rocket science. I get what your saying. But what u look for are measurables, test numbers etc. then you want to see it translated on tape. If a kid has length and explosive testing numbers and it shows up on the tape then you can see it immediately..but the more nuanced stuff, personality, work ethic, love for the game is something you can’t judge off tape. So your right in some ways. But there’s a direct correlation from the elite programs who stack the best industry talent and on field success. That’s a fact
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And what does that have to do with the fact that a bunch of dudes sitting in their offices or eating Cheetos on the bus and reading a message board think they can "evaluate tape" lol?
 
Gocanes1990 said:
Pretty sure it’s an ACC LB from SFL we are hoping for….
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305to954 said:
Football isn’t rocket science. I get what your saying. But what u look for are measurables, test numbers etc. then you want to see it translated on tape. If a kid has length and explosive testing numbers and it shows up on the tape then you can see it immediately..but the more nuanced stuff, personality, work ethic, love for the game is something you can’t judge off tape. So your right in some ways. But there’s a direct correlation from the elite programs who stack the best industry talent and on field success. That’s a fact
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"Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."

- Joseph Robert Theismann
 
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