Talent at Louisville vs Miami

OldManCane

Thunderdome
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Messages
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We're gonna look at this in two different ways, and it should give you an idea what to expect on Labor Day.

The first way we can assess the talent is by looking at NFL draft projections for 2015. Here's how it breaks down:

MIAMI: 7 total picks (3 on offense, 4 on defense)
LOUISVILLE : 8 total picks (7 on offense, 1 on defense)


That right away should tell you that the upperclassman talent (draft eligible kids) is about the same at Louisville and Miami according to CBSSports, however reputable you consider them to be.

The other thing that stands out is that Louisville's talent is all on offense. They have one elite defensive end, 3 offensive linemen, 1 tight end, 1 receiver, and 2 running backs.

They might have the best offensive line and running backs in the ACC.

Other than one defensive end, though, they don't have much individual talent on defense.


Now, the next way to look at the talent difference between the two teams is to look at the freshman, sophomores, and juniors that might contribute. To do this, let's look at the number of 4/5 stars per class from each team that are still on the team (after attrition).


Louisville: 2012 (3), 2013 (2), 2014 (0) TOTAL: 5
Miami: 2012 (9), 2013 (9), 2014 (9) TOTAL: 27


This shows that we've blown them out of the water in the last couple years recruiting.

So you could probably say that Miami has better young talent, that our upperclassmen are about equally talented, and that Miami has a little bit better depth.

Since Louisville's offense is loaded I expect them to score a lot of points. I expect them to get scored on quite a bit as well though.

I would guess that the game on Labor Day is exciting and high scoring, but that Miami wins in the end because we have better depth.
 
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Petrino vs Golden is weighted more than anything you just said IMO
 
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Here is what their QB did in the UL spring game: 32-of-37 passes for 542 yards and four touchdowns

All of this after Petrino had been there only a few months. We are going up against one of the best college football minds/coaches of this generation. If he doesn't chase the NFL dream and stays in college I believe he would have had at least one mnc by now. Unfortunately for him, his character hasn't really allowed a top school to take a chance on him.

We need to have 15 or so guys play disciplined yet aggressive on defense and a QB that can just distribute, be efficient, and make the defense pay when the opportunity presents its self. If that can happen, we'll have a chance to win a game in front of a tough crowd. If not, the result won't be much different than the bowl game.
 
I'll take the talent over coaching any day. The problem with the Canes is most of their talent over the last 7-8 years has not produced like 4 and 5 stars. Call it laziness, lacking work ethic, losing focus. Whatever. Point is, when you have talent producing at the level that they should, talent usually prevails...

Petrino vs Golden is weighted more than anything you just said IMO
 
Here is what their QB did in the UL spring game: 32-of-37 passes for 542 yards and four touchdowns

All of this after Petrino had been there only a few months. We are going up against one of the best college football minds/coaches of this generation. If he doesn't chase the NFL dream and stays in college I believe he would have had at least one mnc by now. Unfortunately for him, his character hasn't really allowed a top school to take a chance on him.

We need to have 15 or so guys play disciplined yet aggressive on defense and a QB that can just distribute, be efficient, and make the defense pay when the opportunity presents its self. If that can happen, we'll have a chance to win a game in front of a tough crowd. If not, the result won't be much different than the bowl game.

That UL spring game was a joke. No pass rush. I wouldn't take much from it.

Side note: they brought in an eligible JUCO QB to compete over the summer.
 
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Petrino vs Golden is weighted more than anything you just said IMO

Maybe, but what I've said takes away the talent excuse because it's pretty obvious the talent is very close.

Most likely coaching will determine this game.

And therefore, by your above conclusion, we will most likely lose this game.


Not really. I think Louisville might have a god-awful defense next year, especially early on. They don't look very talented, and they are breaking in a new defensive coaching staff with a whole 'mother philosophy and playbook.

If we get good play out of the QB and we can make a few key plays on defense (they will score their points and gain yards on us, but this is gonna be a shootout) then I think we're the better team.
 
Here is what their QB did in the UL spring game: 32-of-37 passes for 542 yards and four touchdowns

All of this after Petrino had been there only a few months. We are going up against one of the best college football minds/coaches of this generation. If he doesn't chase the NFL dream and stays in college I believe he would have had at least one mnc by now. Unfortunately for him, his character hasn't really allowed a top school to take a chance on him.

We need to have 15 or so guys play disciplined yet aggressive on defense and a QB that can just distribute, be efficient, and make the defense pay when the opportunity presents its self. If that can happen, we'll have a chance to win a game in front of a tough crowd. If not, the result won't be much different than the bowl game.

That could also point to the fact that their defense sucks, which I believe it does...
 
Here is what their QB did in the UL spring game: 32-of-37 passes for 542 yards and four touchdowns

All of this after Petrino had been there only a few months. We are going up against one of the best college football minds/coaches of this generation. If he doesn't chase the NFL dream and stays in college I believe he would have had at least one mnc by now. Unfortunately for him, his character hasn't really allowed a top school to take a chance on him.

We need to have 15 or so guys play disciplined yet aggressive on defense and a QB that can just distribute, be efficient, and make the defense pay when the opportunity presents its self. If that can happen, we'll have a chance to win a game in front of a tough crowd. If not, the result won't be much different than the bowl game.

That could also point to the fact that their defense sucks, which I believe it does...

By that logic…I guess our defense is awesome.
 
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Petrino vs Golden is weighted more than anything you just said IMO

Maybe, but what I've said takes away the talent excuse because it's pretty obvious the talent is very close.

Most likely coaching will determine this game.

And therefore, by your above conclusion, we will most likely lose this game.


Not really. I think Louisville might have a god-awful defense next year, especially early on. They don't look very talented, and they are breaking in a new defensive coaching staff with a whole 'mother philosophy and playbook.

If we get good play out of the QB and we can make a few key plays on defense (they will score their points and gain yards on us, but this is gonna be a shootout) then I think we're the better team.

Fair enough, I don't agree with your assessment though. In a shootout I think we lose. I agree that they will do their fair share of scoring against us, but I'm a bit skeptical as to wether or not we can keep pace with them. I don't think our offense is designed to be a fast-paced, score quick squad. "If we get good play out of the QB" is a big if, especially in the first game of the season. Our best shot at winning this game, IMO, is controlling the ball, silencing the crowd, keeping Petrino's offense off of the field, and forcing a few stops/mistakes.
 
Here is what their QB did in the UL spring game: 32-of-37 passes for 542 yards and four touchdowns

All of this after Petrino had been there only a few months. We are going up against one of the best college football minds/coaches of this generation. If he doesn't chase the NFL dream and stays in college I believe he would have had at least one mnc by now. Unfortunately for him, his character hasn't really allowed a top school to take a chance on him.

We need to have 15 or so guys play disciplined yet aggressive on defense and a QB that can just distribute, be efficient, and make the defense pay when the opportunity presents its self. If that can happen, we'll have a chance to win a game in front of a tough crowd. If not, the result won't be much different than the bowl game.

That could also point to the fact that their defense sucks, which I believe it does...

By that logic…I guess our defense is awesome.

That's why you can't really read too much in to a spring game
 
Louisville's oline is not a strength

Their depth on defense is atrocious.

Charlie a Strong left at the right time.....yes Loserville does have some WRs, and their corners are pretty good.....but that's where it stops as far as top end talent.
 
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Petrino vs Golden is weighted more than anything you just said IMO

Maybe, but what I've said takes away the talent excuse because it's pretty obvious the talent is very close.

Most likely coaching will determine this game.

And therefore, by your above conclusion, we will most likely lose this game.


Not really. I think Louisville might have a god-awful defense next year, especially early on. They don't look very talented, and they are breaking in a new defensive coaching staff with a whole 'mother philosophy and playbook.

If we get good play out of the QB and we can make a few key plays on defense (they will score their points and gain yards on us, but this is gonna be a shootout) then I think we're the better team.

Fair enough, I don't agree with your assessment though. In a shootout I think we lose. I agree that they will do their fair share of scoring against us, but I'm a bit skeptical as to wether or not we can keep pace with them. I don't think our offense is designed to be a fast-paced, score quick squad. "If we get good play out of the QB" is a big if, especially in the first game of the season. Our best shot at winning this game, IMO, is controlling the ball, silencing the crowd, keeping Petrino's offense off of the field, and forcing a few stops/mistakes.

I agree with your game plan, just think that neither defense is going to be stopping much of anything. Ours has the better shot due to talent advantage, but of course Petrino is an offensive genius so then there's that too.

It's a toss-up IMO. I like our QB over theirs just because ours has actually played some games at the Div 1 level, but it's impossible to say anything for sure right now.
 
Louisville's oline is not a strength

Their depth on defense is atrocious.

Charlie a Strong left at the right time.....yes Loserville does have some WRs, and their corners are pretty good.....but that's where it stops as far as top end talent.

Nah....

They have Jake Smith, the third ranked center in the draft

They have John Miller, the eighth ranked guard in the draft.

They have Jamon Brown, the fourteenth ranked OT in the draft.



(for comparison's sake, Shane McDermott is the 13th ranked center and Jon Feliciano is the 13th ranked guard)



That's three future NFL offensive linemen they have lining up against us. Gotta respect that.
 
Petrino vs Golden is weighted more than anything you just said IMO

Maybe, but what I've said takes away the talent excuse because it's pretty obvious the talent is very close.

Most likely coaching will determine this game.

And therefore, by your above conclusion, we will most likely lose this game.


Not really. I think Louisville might have a god-awful defense next year, especially early on. They don't look very talented, and they are breaking in a new defensive coaching staff with a whole 'mother philosophy and playbook.

If we get good play out of the QB and we can make a few key plays on defense (they will score their points and gain yards on us, but this is gonna be a shootout) then I think we're the better team.

Fair enough, I don't agree with your assessment though. In a shootout I think we lose. I agree that they will do their fair share of scoring against us, but I'm a bit skeptical as to wether or not we can keep pace with them. I don't think our offense is designed to be a fast-paced, score quick squad. "If we get good play out of the QB" is a big if, especially in the first game of the season. Our best shot at winning this game, IMO, is controlling the ball, silencing the crowd, keeping Petrino's offense off of the field, and forcing a few stops/mistakes.

That's what Louisville is thinking too. They highly respect what Duke Johnson can do, and the plan is to concentrate on stopping him, since they figure our QB situation pretty much sucks.

THEN, they figure - based on strong evidence - that Petrino will run offense like Miami hasn't seen in a long time, against a proven, weak defense, unable to adjust. They likewise figure their spread attacking passing game can't be stopped, and certainly not by Miami.

I was curious about what they were discussing on Cardinal Sports, and it's interesting reading. No bragging, no flash. Analysis.
 
Maybe, but what I've said takes away the talent excuse because it's pretty obvious the talent is very close.

Most likely coaching will determine this game.

And therefore, by your above conclusion, we will most likely lose this game.


Not really. I think Louisville might have a god-awful defense next year, especially early on. They don't look very talented, and they are breaking in a new defensive coaching staff with a whole 'mother philosophy and playbook.

If we get good play out of the QB and we can make a few key plays on defense (they will score their points and gain yards on us, but this is gonna be a shootout) then I think we're the better team.

Fair enough, I don't agree with your assessment though. In a shootout I think we lose. I agree that they will do their fair share of scoring against us, but I'm a bit skeptical as to wether or not we can keep pace with them. I don't think our offense is designed to be a fast-paced, score quick squad. "If we get good play out of the QB" is a big if, especially in the first game of the season. Our best shot at winning this game, IMO, is controlling the ball, silencing the crowd, keeping Petrino's offense off of the field, and forcing a few stops/mistakes.

That's what Louisville is thinking too. They highly respect what Duke Johnson can do, and the plan is to concentrate on stopping him, since they figure our QB situation pretty much sucks.

THEN, they figure - based on strong evidence - that Petrino will run offense like Miami hasn't seen in a long time, against a proven, weak defense, unable to adjust. They likewise figure their spread attacking passing game can't be stopped, and certainly not by Miami.

I was curious about what they were discussing on Cardinal Sports, and it's interesting reading. No bragging, no flash. Analysis.

I think that's fair, I just don't believe they have the personnel to fit Todd Grantham's 3-4. Remember they brought this guy over from Georgia and think about the kind of player he had over there vs what Charlie Strong was running.

They can talk about stopping Duke and hoping that our QB situation sucks worse than theirs does, but between you and me I don't buy it.

I don't think Heaps is a drop off at all from what we had with Morris, and I think they'll be an absolute mess on defense.
 
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