forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

Advertisement
JD08 said:
My father was a WW2 vet and worked in labor relations after the war. He told me a great many stories, what would you like to know?

Also, I'm referring to the legal requirements still in place for a mandate that isn't. That's an unnecessary expenditure that every company has to pay for no purpose at all. It has nothing to do with working conditions or healthcare.
Click to expand...
That what Legislators are supposed to do. We had Republicans and Democrats controlling The Congress and did nothing. My father, who was in WWll had to quit high school, in 8th grade, to work in factories that had no regulations or oversight.
You can message me and I can tell you stories too.
 
mr.h said:
That what Legislators are supposed to do. We had Republicans and Democrats controlling The Congress and did nothing. My father, who was in WWll had to quit high school, in 8th grade, to work in factories that had no regulations or oversight.
You can message me and I can tell you stories too.
Click to expand...
The Fair Labor Standards Act was passed in 1938. Did your father work in a union shop?
 
JD08 said:
The Fair Labor Standards Act was passed in 1938. Did your father work in a union shop?
Click to expand...
It eventually became unionized and my father was a union organizer. I believe in the 40’s. He pressed ties and hats..
Union shops had to fight into the 50’s and 60’s to get a living wage. All I know that it was he-ll to work in those shops.
 
Advertisement
I believe, but don’t agree, we get a .25 hike. WHY? Powell’s talking points need to include a pause. Lending is going to go to sh It.
 
Advertisement
redcane said:
CE, you doubling down or getting out? I don't know what to make of Hidenburg.
Click to expand...

Got some DD I was looking into back today. I went in again @ $32, 25% yield. I think this is bull****. Company is in a quiet period (interesting timing for the short attack, huh?) too and can't buy until they announce earnings. I'd love to share more but it was all in confidence.
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
From Reuters today

There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in March, the government reported on Tuesday, well above the 1.0-1.2 range that economists say is consistent with a jobs market that is not generating too much inflation.
 
Advertisement
I'm growing much more concerned about the economy due to the regional banks.

Some important facts:
50% of employed humans work for companies with 500 or less employees
Those companies tend to get loans from... regional banks and deposit into regional banks
The FDIC let First Republic fail with $0 paid to owners or bond holders. FDIC will eat around $13B of costs and JP Morgan gets debt protection against the best assets. This is an EXTREMELY bad start to bank failures.

1. No one will want to invest in banks because failure means $0 on higher than normal risks for banks.
2. The paper losses for most banks are not going to get better in the short term. Thus, the weaker will fail and the stronger will get weaker as the buy up assets.
3. The FED keep hiking rates which means even more risk of failure is being added to the banks. Why? Anyone can take their bank funds to a brokerage to get 5% on treasuries while the banks are giving out 1% or less. That takes people 1 minute of time to transfer and invest.

This is NOT an SP500 issue now as those organizations don't bank with the regionals AND they aren't truly impacted by the FED hikes. It WILL become one when unemployment jumps, local/regional lending dries up because banks have no deposits to lend against, AND thousands of smaller companies that use SP500 goods/services go under. The stock market should be pricing in the massive risk as banks should be safe investments not risk assets. Thus, what are risk assets if banks are now risk assets?

I honestly don't see any way out of this IF the goal is to get inflation to 2%. This is another big blunder by the FED, Treasury, and Congress. How they didn't stress test $50B+ banks AND stress test them for fast rate hikes is beyond me.


When the FED does drop rates, expect the market to come crashing down just like every time over the last 30-40 years. Why? It likely will be way too late. Heck, they just raised rates and said no cuts are planned for 7 months. In 7 months, I wouldn't be shocked to see higher inflation AND another $1T of failed banks making 2008 look tiny.
 
90scane said:
I'm growing much more concerned about the economy due to the regional banks.

Some important facts:
50% of employed humans work for companies with 500 or less employees
Those companies tend to get loans from... regional banks and deposit into regional banks
The FDIC let First Republic fail with $0 paid to owners or bond holders. FDIC will eat around $13B of costs and JP Morgan gets debt protection against the best assets. This is an EXTREMELY bad start to bank failures.

1. No one will want to invest in banks because failure means $0 on higher than normal risks for banks.
2. The paper losses for most banks are not going to get better in the short term. Thus, the weaker will fail and the stronger will get weaker as the buy up assets.
3. The FED keep hiking rates which means even more risk of failure is being added to the banks. Why? Anyone can take their bank funds to a brokerage to get 5% on treasuries while the banks are giving out 1% or less. That takes people 1 minute of time to transfer and invest.

This is NOT an SP500 issue now as those organizations don't bank with the regionals AND they aren't truly impacted by the FED hikes. It WILL become one when unemployment jumps, local/regional lending dries up because banks have no deposits to lend against, AND thousands of smaller companies that use SP500 goods/services go under. The stock market should be pricing in the massive risk as banks should be safe investments not risk assets. Thus, what are risk assets if banks are now risk assets?

I honestly don't see any way out of this IF the goal is to get inflation to 2%. This is another big blunder by the FED, Treasury, and Congress. How they didn't stress test $50B+ banks AND stress test them for fast rate hikes is beyond me.


When the FED does drop rates, expect the market to come crashing down just like every time over the last 30-40 years. Why? It likely will be way too late. Heck, they just raised rates and said no cuts are planned for 7 months. In 7 months, I wouldn't be shocked to see higher inflation AND another $1T of failed banks making 2008 look tiny.
Click to expand...
Don’t fight the Fed.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top