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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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I don't see a path forward for the FED hiking right now without a complete meltdown of the banks. BOFA alone has $100B of MTM losses on the books. Raising rates just increases those paper losses for all banks. It also dries up the credit markets as banks will pull back lines of credit, increase their spreads, and set higher standards for any type of credit. Wells Fargo has already gone to the FED window to convert losses to cash. The list of banks lowering or canceling lines of credit for organizations/people I know is wide enough that it involves 4 of the 7 banks I use: Navy Fed, USAA, Wells, and AMEX.
If the FED keeps hiking, it will soon impact the banks' ability to buy treasuries which then impact the treasury's ability to sell enough treasuries to fund the government. Compound that with higher interest payments by the treasury for debt payments. Compound that with a big discussion on the debt ceiling. Compound that with tighter financials for companies leading to more layoffs, and lower profits.... The downward cycle has hit and if the FED doesn't pause it will only speed up the cycle which MAY mean a faster pivot to lower rates but much bigger short-term pain along with a quick return to even higher inflation!
 
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SpikeUM said:
If we were in a "normal" environment, a 200K jobless number would still be hot. My guess is that the Fed will pause, BUT that doesnt rule out hikes later in the year.
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Well Done Applause GIF by The Voice
 
My earlier comment on investors needing to review nominees to Boards, this is one I received today. How does these qualifications merit a board seat? I deleted the names:

​

INDEPENDENT DIRECTOR​

xxxxx is Professor-Emeritus at xxxx University and on the board of 23 other companies.

Mr. xxxxx previously held the position of Vice President & Dean at College of Liberal Arts & Sciences.
 
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mr.h said:
I smell rally mode…
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You buy first. I'll wait because history may not repeat itself but it sure does look similar. That said, the low of the market has historically by 6-12 months After the FED has pivoted. The FED hasn't even stopped as of today.
 
90scane said:
You buy first. I'll wait because history may not repeat itself but it sure does look similar. That said, the low of the market has historically by 6-12 months After the FED has pivoted. The FED hasn't even stopped as of today.
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@mr.h

Not picking on you, providing an alternative view I posted from earlier in the this thread; adding risk when there is a severe banking crisis and loss of confidence, while inflation is still hot and may force the Fed to hike later in the year, while there is a war going on, etc etc is not a prescription for a new bull market. You may be right, but sitting on the sidelines earning 5% aint so bad.
 
SpikeUM said:
@mr.h

Not picking on you, providing an alternative view I posted from earlier in the this thread; adding risk when there is a severe banking crisis and loss of confidence, while inflation is still hot and may force the Fed to hike later in the year, while there is a war going on, etc etc is not a prescription for a new bull market. You may be right, but sitting on the sidelines earning 5% aint so bad.
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Some talking heads on cnbc we’re calling a bottom on a few sectors and I think that even if the Fed goes 25, we should be good.
 
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SpikeUM said:
My earlier comment on investors needing to review nominees to Boards, this is one I received today. How does these qualifications merit a board seat? I deleted the names:

​

INDEPENDENT DIRECTOR​

xxxxx is Professor-Emeritus at xxxx University and on the board of 23 other companies.

Mr. xxxxx previously held the position of Vice President & Dean at College of Liberal Arts & Sciences.
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Does the position pay? It may have something to do with the lack of candidates.
 
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Yahoo Finance
Late Thursday afternoon, 11 banking giants led by JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) infused a total of $30 billion of uninsured deposits to First Republic in a move to stabilize the bank.
No Way Wow GIF by Productions Deferlantes
 
mr.h said:
Yahoo Finance
Late Thursday afternoon, 11 banking giants led by JPMorgan (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC) infused a total of $30 billion of uninsured deposits to First Republic in a move to stabilize the bank.
No Way Wow GIF by Productions Deferlantes
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So think about it....the Fed is letting them borrow at par against securities trading well below par. They already have a large credit line from JPM and supposedly have $35BB cash on hand, and they STILL need $30BB more in liquidity? If I am shareholder of the banks ponying up, I would be very upset/concerned.
 
SpikeUM said:
So think about it....the Fed is letting them borrow at par against securities trading well below par. They already have a large credit line from JPM and supposedly have $35BB cash on hand, and they STILL need $30BB more in liquidity? If I am shareholder of the banks ponying up, I would be very upset/concerned.
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Fo sho…”uninsured deposits “. We’re talking the big 4 banks..
A similar collapse happened in England four month ago and they didn’t see this coming?
 
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Let me reiterate the point I made last week. They were only bailed out bc they had the right politics. They would laugh at a regional bank in bum**** nowhere that failed.
 
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