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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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JeddTheFisch said:
You have good reason.
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First rule of making money is not to lose it, so a 5% riskless yield is pretty compelling. Yes I can make the case that Financials are oversold and will come back, but I can also make an even more credible case that they still have huge MTM problems, will have to pay higher rates and higher fees on deposits going forward, and that we are likely headed towards a slowdown/recession, perhaps a sharp one.
 
SpikeUM said:
First rule of making money is not to lose it, so a 5% riskless yield is pretty compelling. Yes I can make the case that Financials are oversold and will come back, but I can also make an even more credible case that they still have huge MTM problems, will have to pay higher rates and higher fees on deposits going forward, and that we are likely headed towards a slowdown/recession, perhaps a sharp one.
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I'm waiting longer for all equities.
 
SpikeUM said:
First rule of making money is not to lose it, so a 5% riskless yield is pretty compelling. Yes I can make the case that Financials are oversold and will come back, but I can also make an even more credible case that they still have huge MTM problems, will have to pay higher rates and higher fees on deposits going forward, and that we are likely headed towards a slowdown/recession, perhaps a sharp one.
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There's a good chance that we'll still go down significantly, but I couldn't stop myself from buying 20 shares of Schwab after that dip. It's not as if I'm an institutional investor. 😂

Keeping most of my cash on the sideline for now, waiting for the bigger dips.
 
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90scane said:
I'm waiting longer for all equities.
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We may be entering a phase where the Fed will pauses and we start to see more recessionary signs. Retail sales are tomorrow and they are going to be down. Hopefully inflation subsides with supply and demand balancing out naturally.
Still hoping we can have a mild recession, but a soft landing looks harder, with higher interest rates, for a longer time period. Hopefully we see buying of equities for no other reason than the pause, if that happens.
The rollback of bank regulations seems like a mistake, and it was bi-partisan.
 
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07:30USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Mar) -24.6--8-5.8
07:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Feb) -0.1% -0.3% 0.3%
07:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Feb) 4.6% -5.4% 5.7%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Feb) 0% -0.4% 0.1%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Feb) 4.4% -5.2% 5.4%
07:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Feb) -0.4% --0.3% 3.2%
07:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Feb) 0.5% --1.2% 2.3%
07:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Feb) -0.1% 0-0.1% 2.4%
PPI down dramatically...less inflation

Retail sales down from a strong January
 
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mr.h said:

07:30USDNY Empire State Manufacturing Index(Mar)-24.6--8-5.8
07:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Feb)-0.1% -0.3%0.3%
07:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Feb)4.6% -5.4%5.7%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Feb)0% -0.4%0.1%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Feb)4.4% -5.2%5.4%
07:30USDRetail Sales (MoM)(Feb)-0.4% --0.3%3.2%
07:30USDRetail Sales Control Group(Feb)0.5% --1.2%2.3%
07:30USDRetail Sales ex Autos (MoM)(Feb)-0.1% 0-0.1%2.4%
PPI down dramatically...less inflation

Retail sales down from a strong January
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You are missing the real issues. Mark to market losses, defaults are in motion, layoffs are in motion…the only way to stop the expungement of bad players would be 0%. If the FED goes higher, the fringe bad players get caught up as collateral damage. If the FED remains high for longer, some good players could get caught. To make matters worse, they are more or less making all MBS good money even if they contain really bad loans. Thus, we have a mortgage crisis but not at the individual mortgage level but at the MBS level due to rates that were 0% and the MBS being HTM with rates now being 5% thus those MBS are massive losses. When the layoffs pile up, companies stop leasing, mortgage holders stop paying…it is a compounding issue : MTM, fewer deposits, and some worthless MBS.

Making the MBS good backstops the banks from failing but means the taxpayers are left holding the bill. I’m pretty sure it means inflation will run hot for many years to deal with all of these bad MTM losses and soon-to-be worthless MBS.

The FED needs to pause and hold 4-4.5 for 6 months. Never go back to 0% and let inflation run hot for years while expunging bad players and banks.
 
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90scane said:
You are missing the real issues. Mark to market losses, defaults are in motion, layoffs are in motion…the only way to stop the expungement of bad players would be 0%. If the FED goes higher, the fringe bad players get caught up as collateral damage. If the FED remains high for longer, some good players could get caught. To make matters worse, they are more or less making all MBS good money even if they contain really bad loans. Thus, we have a mortgage crisis but not at the individual mortgage level but at the MBS level due to rates that were 0% and the MBS being HTM with rates now being 5% thus those MBS are massive losses. When the layoffs pile up, companies stop leasing, mortgage holders stop paying…it is a compounding issue : MTM and worthless MBS.

Making the MBS good back stops the banks from failing but means the taxpayers are left holding the bill. I’m pretty sure it means inflation will run hot for many years to deal with all of these bad MTM losses and soon to be worthless MBS.

The FED needs to pause and hold 4-4.5 for 6 months. Never go back to 0% and let inflation run hot for years while with expunge bad players and banks.
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Explain to me why you believe that inflation will run hot for years.
It was the the Fed policy of raising interest rates to fast, that caused financial insecurity. Oil, gas and commodity prices are dropping. A recession wold certainly lower wage pressure and cause a drop in employment and spending. I’m seeing inflation cooling. Of course we can argue the parameters.

FDIC and SPI C are protecting retail/normal investors. Yes, retail investors will hold MBS to maturity, but big players, like the Saudis, can move large amounts of money, in an instant, causing the fear and instability we are seeing. The big investors and banks should not be bailed out by the taxpayers, but probably will.
The guaranteeing of all deposits, for Silicon Valley Bank, should stop a domino affect, at least here. Congress cutting banking regulations, will be reversed. Of course everybody will be pointing fingers, as Congress is broken.
This is not 2008 with bad credit underwriting, but a risk of a global recession clearly possible.
 
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mr.h said:
Explain to me why you believe that inflation will run hot for years.
It was the the Fed policy of raising interest rates to fast, that caused financial insecurity. Oil, gas and commodity prices are dropping. A recession wold certainly lower wage pressure and cause a drop in employment and spending. I’m seeing inflation cooling. Of course we can argue the parameters.

FDIC and SPI C are protecting retail/normal investors. Yes, retail investors will hold MBS to maturity, but big players, like the Saudis, can move large amounts of money, in an instant, causing the fear and instability we are seeing. The big investors and banks should not be bailed out by the taxpayers, but probably will.
The guaranteeing of all deposits, for Silicon Valley Bank, should stop a domino affect, at least here. Congress cutting banking regulations, will be reversed. Of course everybody will be pointing fingers, as Congress is broken.
This is not 2008 with bad credit underwriting, but a risk of a global recession clearly possible.
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Two questions.
1. Has inflation ever gone away quickly?
2. What impact has government spending in line with Modern Monetary Theory had on inflation?
 
JD08 said:
Two questions.
1. Has inflation ever gone away quickly?
2. What impact has government spending in line with Modern Monetary Theory had on inflation?
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1- no, but it sure went up quickly.
2- Inflationary

two questions:
1-Should we raise taxes and cut spending.?
2- Where would you cut and where would you raise taxes?
 
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