Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

90scane · Mar 13, 2023

mr.h said:
CPI tomorrow.

With rising interest rates, in such a short period of time, we will be in a recession. The yield curve is inverted and points to a recession…But we have strong job numbers [labor], consumers are spending, disinflation has been lowered, inflation is moderating. Retail sales and manufacturing are robust, and we are in a post Covid economy.
Our economy is in flux, but I have always been on the side of a softer landing and we are doing better than most other economies. I can no longer say that the fundamentals are strong as they are weakening.

Thus you are trying to back the current admin but don’t believe your own words. Take your D glasses off when talking finance.

JD08 · Mar 13, 2023

mr.h said:
CPI tomorrow.

With rising interest rates, in such a short period of time, we will be in a recession. The yield curve is inverted and points to a recession…But we have strong job numbers [labor], consumers are spending, disinflation has been lowered, inflation is moderating. Retail sales and manufacturing are robust, and we are in a post Covid economy.
Our economy is in flux, but I have always been on the side of a softer landing and we are doing better than most other economies. I can no longer say that the fundamentals are strong as they are weakening.

Consumer spending could very quickly abate if they feel the bank issue is a repeat of 2008. It didn't help that you had elected officials on a hot mic calling for the media to downplay the SVB/Signature takeovers.

Felonious Monk · Mar 13, 2023

mr.h said:
The Glass-Steagall Act

Oh, did I miss the part where it said the $250,000 limit only applied to certain groups?

mr.h · Mar 13, 2023

90scane said:
Thus you are trying to back the current admin but don’t believe your own words. Take your D glasses off when talking finance.

I’m saying that rising interest rates are slowing and could deeply hurt the economy, causing a recession, but the strength of the economy has held up to this point. The bank failure is a good example, but this is in no way a 2008 event.

mr.h · Mar 13, 2023

JD08 said:
Consumer spending could very quickly abate if they feel the bank issue is a repeat of 2008. It didn't help that you had elected officials on a hot mic calling for the media to downplay the SVB/Signature takeovers.

This is not 2008. There will be no run on the banks. I was going to mention the Todd-Frank Act, but decided against it.

JD08 · Mar 13, 2023

mr.h said:
This is not 2008. There will be no run on the banks. I was going to mention the Todd-Frank Act, but decided against it.

Except for the run on SVB and Signature.

SpikeUM · Mar 13, 2023

JD08 said:
Except for the run on SVB and Signature.

There is a run on other banks too, I can tell you firsthand. Best *guess* is that First Republic and others are taken over in the next few weeks and months.

Clarification: When I say taken over, I mean they are most likely to be bought by stronger banks.

SpikeUM · Mar 13, 2023

Barney Frank, LOL

Barney Frank Pushed to Ease Financial Regulations After Joining Signature Bank Board

The former congressman and co-sponsor of the Dodd-Frank bill says there is no evidence that the change enabled bank’s failure.

www.wsj.com

SpikeUM · Mar 13, 2023

From Barron's today on BAC

Bank of America had $862 billion of debt securities on its balance sheet totaling roughly $3 trillion at the end of 2022. Of that, $632 billion of bonds, mostly federal agency mortgage securities, were classified as held to maturity for accounting purposes.

Banks don’t have to record losses on changes in those securities’ value, cutting into their capital, unless the debt is sold. Still, holdings in that bucket, which carry minimal or no credit risk, were nonetheless showing a loss of about $109 billion at the end of 2022 due to the rise in interest rates over the past year.

TheEye · Mar 13, 2023

Short term rates are all below 5%. Is this the end of 5% and up?

SpikeUM · Mar 13, 2023

Regulators Had the Tools to Prevent Customer Concentration at Failed Banks

As Charles Schwab Stock Tumbles, Executives Reassure Investors

Statements from the CFO, CEO, and Charles Schwab himself appear to be reversing Monday’s sharp selloff in the stock.

www.barrons.com

SpikeUM · Mar 13, 2023

TheEye said:
Short term rates are all below 5%. Is this the end of 5% and up?

Short term, probably. Medium and longer terms, we havent solved any of the core issues, so we will be stuck in a yo-yo environment.

JD08 · Mar 13, 2023

SpikeUM said:
Regulators Had the Tools to Prevent Customer Concentration at Failed Banks

As Charles Schwab Stock Tumbles, Executives Reassure Investors

Statements from the CFO, CEO, and Charles Schwab himself appear to be reversing Monday’s sharp selloff in the stock.

www.barrons.com

So...not something political from 5 years ago?

Calinative · Mar 13, 2023

SpikeUM said:
BTW, stepping back and looking at the macro picture, rule one of investing is DONT FIGHT THE FED. Those that chose to ignore that basic rule got hurt, and that includes the risk management idiots at a lot of banks, the FDIC, OCC, etc.

What if the Fed like less than 2 years ago was projecting rates to be like 1% and banks purchased assets accordingly, then the Fed made the largest rate hike in history shortly after....

TheEye · Mar 13, 2023

SpikeUM said:
Short term, probably. Medium and longer terms, we havent solved any of the core issues, so we will be stuck in a yo-yo environment.

Are you saying the yield curve will end its inversion?

SpikeUM · Mar 13, 2023

TheEye said:
Are you saying the yield curve will end its inversion?

No, you asked if it was the end of 5%+ short term rates, it will take a while to end the inversion.

90scane · Mar 14, 2023

this bailout is very inflationary. Now everyone knows banks won’t fail so they can create new money with no risk of failure. More or less, all banks are FED banks. This isn’t a good thing at all.

JD08 · Mar 14, 2023

90scane said:
this bailout is very inflationary. Now everyone knows banks won’t fail so they can create new money with no risk of failure. More or less, all banks are FED banks. This isn’t a good thing at all.

Why is my late fee now $250?

mr.h · Mar 14, 2023

07:30

USD

Consumer Price Index Core s.a(Feb)

304.07

-

302.7

07:30

USD

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Feb)

0.5%

0.98

0.4%


07:30		USD	Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Feb)		5.5%	0	5.5%	5.6%


07:30		USD	Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Feb)		300.84	-0.05	300.86	299.17

Inflation numbers meet expectations..beats previous numbers.
Still should come down faster, but it's tome for a pause.

ben · Mar 14, 2023

mr.h said:
07:30 USD Consumer Price Index Core s.a(Feb) 304.07 - - 302.7

07:30 USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Feb) 0.5% 0.98 0.4% 0.4%

07:30 USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Feb) 5.5% 0 5.5% 5.6%

07:30 USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Feb) 300.84 -0.05 300.86 299.17

Inflation numbers meet expectations..beats previous numbers.
Still should come down faster, but it's tome for a pause.

@Confidence1000 PAUSE

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