So long as the yield curve is inverted, I think stacking new cash to maturity 6 to 12 months ahead of time as you acquire new income make the new deposits. I don’t like the yield of the 10 year.
no your not.Yes, inflation was higher in the last quarter, BUT the economic indicators are showing that the consumer is resilient and the economy is strong enough for a soft landing, figuring in 25 rate increases.
For the first time I heard Jamie Dimon talk about a soft landing and he was as bearish as they come.
I know I’m probably the only optimist on this board, but the economy is strong enough to price in smaller rate hikes and housing, food and energy are dropping for now.
Don‘t neg me bros…
No I’m not the only optimist or no I’m not seeing prices going down?
Agree and what I said previously is that the Fed cannot figure out this economy.
That money supply isn't going to get QT'd away. BOJ printed more than the FED! Even raising rates won't cause that 39% to drop. Thus, we are at the new norm. The home prices will drop in 2023 and 2024 but bounce right back to new highs in 2025 when rates drop. Stocks will likely do the same With the bottom being 6-12 months after the FED stops hiking.
I can't blame the FED. No one can figure out this economy because we are a global economy with massive inputs from many central banks that aren't all acting the same way at the same time. Add in supply chain changes and war.
Not the only optimist. My market philosophy is that in todays world, market forces can change quickly, but corporations (and, their allocation of capital) can change even quicker. Money, corporations and the strive for profits doesn't sleep.
yeah, the probability of all that happening is greater then the opposite. And, your point of inflation "not increasing" is the biggest by far.
Markets tank given time. If we have such a surplus in the money supply, the Fed is doing right by discouraging growth via new debt and encouraging high yielding savings. All debt needs to be paid down ASAP.
Do not bet on the Fed lowering rates. Currently, rates are at or even below historic averages. Both private and public debt needs to get paid down before the excess money in the supply starts to dwindle.
Just to clarify, it looks like the mkt. believes that the Fed will raise at 25 and keep the rates higher for longer, rather than hitting us over the head with a sledgehammer. That is what I understood that they were saying.
it has begun.
Yes. Assume about a full percentage hike annually. That being the case, people whining about high rates today should probably realize they won’t be this low for long. Those looking to make big purchases should start squirreling away money into those short term bonds.
Housing sales for 2023 is showing a significant drop. I’ll try to get the numbers to show 90’scane. We can easily see a 10% drop. You are right that some investors are going into bonds, but cash is king and investors are waiting for an entry point. Lower rate hikes are already priced in for the first half of 2023.
