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Stars matter to some extent in recruiting

Dwinstitles said:
Kirby is a monster thats why, people in denial here just like they were with Jimbo when he started that monster **** at FSU when he first started. When a coach can come in and clean up on the trial he will be successful
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Your boy Sweet Willie proved this true last night.
 

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Most posts in here are making a Scarecrow argument. Virtually nobody thinks stars aren't part of the equation.

The debate isn't that stars don't matter. That's ridiculous and everyone agrees.

The debate is how important they are. Clearly in the case of Miami it's never been the sole indication of success. The U has rarely had top 10 classes in it's history.
 
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OriginalGatorHater said:
No ****. Do you think it is a coincidence that since the 247 composite has been started they have beat us the vast majority of the time?
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It's always been this way. 80's, 90's, 00's.

It will always be that way.

Miami has never in it's history been a program built on bluechip kids and 5* players. They've always gone somewhere else.

Everyone wants 5* recruits. Sure bring them in. It's just not something that Miami is able to do consistently, ever in it's history. Some dudes act like your hair is on fire when we lose 5* players, but this is our reality. This is our history.

Miami wins by keeping as many 4*-5* targets home as possible, and having a higher hit rate on 3* players than anyone else. We do it by watching these kids for years and knowing exactly whom are the real gems in our backyard. Those gems turn into Hall of Fame players.

If you expect Miami to beat out Florida, FSU, or the SEC schools in recruiting rankings you are going to be perpetually disappointed. Miami is the underdog. Miami is the little team that slays giants. Miami will dominate CFB again by doing this exact thing.
 
ShadowSpring said:
It's always been this way. 80's, 90's, 00's.

It will always be that way.

Miami has never in it's history been a program built on bluechip kids and 5* players. They've always gone somewhere else.

Everyone wants 5* recruits. Sure bring them in. It's just not something that Miami is able to do consistently, ever in it's history. Some dudes act like your hair is on fire when we lose 5* players, but this is our reality. This is our history.

Miami wins by keeping as many 4*-5* targets home as possible, and having a higher hit rate on 3* players than anyone else. We do it by watching these kids for years and knowing exactly whom are the real gems in our backyard. Those gems turn into Hall of Fame players.

If you expect Miami to beat out Florida, FSU, or the SEC schools in recruiting rankings you are going to be perpetually disappointed. Miami is the underdog. Miami is the little team that slays giants. Miami will dominate CFB again by doing this exact thing.
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You do realize recruting rankings really only started to become accurate in the early to mid 2000s right? Before that 5 stars had an insanely high bust percetange. Of the past 5 draft classes something liek 80-90% of 5 stars ended up on an NFL roster. Miami does not have a higher hit percentage on 3 stars then MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and a number of other teams. Miami will never win again until we start keeping the 4 and 5 star south Florida kids home. During the 80s and 90s we landed the guys we went after. Not all of them, but we landed a lot more then we are landing in the past 15 years or so. Recruiting rankings didn't matter then. They matter now.
 
OriginalGatorHater said:
You do realize recruting rankings really only started to become accurate in the early to mid 2000s right? Before that 5 stars had an insanely high bust percetange. Of the past 5 draft classes something liek 80-90% of 5 stars ended up on an NFL roster. Miami does not have a higher hit percentage on 3 stars then MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and a number of other teams. Miami will never win again until we start keeping the 4 and 5 star south Florida kids home. During the 80s and 90s we landed the guys we went after. Not all of them, but we landed a lot more then we are landing in the past 15 years or so. Recruiting rankings didn't matter then. They matter now.
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Its like people don't understand the transformation college recruiting has gone through. Are there still hidden gems? of course there are. But every major school in the country is spending WAY more time watching football from south Florida than it ever was. We will never be able to rely on finding 6, 7 under the radar kids that are graded poorly, that we get without a big time fight from a big time program. Those days have been gone for a decade.

And before someone comes in here and lists 5 players over a 10 year period that went on to be good players that were three stars, re read my post, I get there are gems in south Florida. I get that we are going to miss on future stars going after higher profile kids. The point is, the recruiting model of the 80's and 90's is no longer sustainable in south Florida due to the economics of college football.
 
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ShadowSpring said:
It's always been this way. 80's, 90's, 00's.

It will always be that way.

Miami has never in it's history been a program built on bluechip kids and 5* players. They've always gone somewhere else.

Everyone wants 5* recruits. Sure bring them in. It's just not something that Miami is able to do consistently, ever in it's history. Some dudes act like your hair is on fire when we lose 5* players, but this is our reality. This is our history.

Miami wins by keeping as many 4*-5* targets home as possible, and having a higher hit rate on 3* players than anyone else. We do it by watching these kids for years and knowing exactly whom are the real gems in our backyard. Those gems turn into Hall of Fame players.

If you expect Miami to beat out Florida, FSU, or the SEC schools in recruiting rankings you are going to be perpetually disappointed. Miami is the underdog. Miami is the little team that slays giants. Miami will dominate CFB again by doing this exact thing.
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When is the last time we seriously competed for a national title?

16 years ago.

On the other hand, every national champion in the last decade has had over 50% of their roster be 4/5 stars.

Do you think it's possible that recruiting underrated 3-stars isn't working for us anymore? Maybe the recruiting services have gotten a little better at identifying talent than they were back in the pre-internet days?
 
ShadowSpring said:
It's always been this way. 80's, 90's, 00's.

It will always be that way.

Miami has never in it's history been a program built on bluechip kids and 5* players. They've always gone somewhere else.

Everyone wants 5* recruits. Sure bring them in. It's just not something that Miami is able to do consistently, ever in it's history. Some dudes act like your hair is on fire when we lose 5* players, but this is our reality. This is our history.

Miami wins by keeping as many 4*-5* targets home as possible, and having a higher hit rate on 3* players than anyone else. We do it by watching these kids for years and knowing exactly whom are the real gems in our backyard. Those gems turn into Hall of Fame players.

If you expect Miami to beat out Florida, FSU, or the SEC schools in recruiting rankings you are going to be perpetually disappointed. Miami is the underdog. Miami is the little team that slays giants. Miami will dominate CFB again by doing this exact thing.
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Also, this "Miami is the underdog" thing has to be addressed. Miami has one of the biggest followings in college football. We're one of the biggest brands in the sport.

Not to mention, we have 5 national championships, and are located in one of the most attractive and happening cities in the world..... ask anyone to compare Miami Florida to Tuscaloosa Alabama and it's a joke.

Adding to that, we're located in the most fertile recruiting ground in America... so we have all the location advantage you could ever ask for.

We're not an underdog.

I was at the LSU game. Despite being much further away, Miami fans made up nearly half the stadium. So we have fans.

So don't talk about Miami like we're Duke or some ****. Miami is one of the premiere programs in college football. It's not the 80's anymore. Back then, we were underdogs. But those boys built us in to the powerhouse program we are today, and now we need to carry the legacy and act like the power we are.

Miami should have NO TROUBLE recruiting with the elites of college football.

We should expect a top 5 class every year.... anything less is a disappointment.
 
RightSaidFred said:
Also, this "Miami is the underdog" thing has to be addressed. Miami has one of the biggest followings in college football. We're one of the biggest brands in the sport.

Not to mention, we have 5 national championships, and are located in one of the most attractive and happening cities in the world..... ask anyone to compare Miami Florida to Tuscaloosa Alabama and it's a joke.

Adding to that, we're located in the most fertile recruiting ground in America... so we have all the location advantage you could ever ask for.

We're not an underdog.

I was at the LSU game. Despite being much further away, Miami fans made up nearly half the stadium. So we have fans.

So don't talk about Miami like we're Duke or some ****. Miami is one of the premiere programs in college football. It's not the 80's anymore. Back then, we were underdogs. But those boys built us in to the powerhouse program we are today, and now we need to carry the legacy and act like the power we are.

Miami should have NO TROUBLE recruiting with the elites of college football.

We should expect a top 5 class every year.... anything less is a disappointment.
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It's called the bag game...When you get put on probation for taking a couple kids bowling and on a boat...And the rest of the nation's blue bloods are shelling out 6 figures for kids, it's not easy to enter that top 5 to 7. Fully confident we can be perennial top 12, we are getting close now...But not sure we will ever have consistent top 5 classes.
 
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RightSaidFred said:
When is the last time we seriously competed for a national title?

16 years ago.

On the other hand, every national champion in the last decade has had over 50% of their roster be 4/5 stars.

Do you think it's possible that recruiting underrated 3-stars isn't working for us anymore? Maybe the recruiting services have gotten a little better at identifying talent than they were back in the pre-internet days?
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According to what metric have the services gotten more accurate. Support the claim with facts or it's a false claim.
 
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RightSaidFred said:
Here's a link to a study showing that stars matter: Do stars matter in recruiting? The data says they do - FootballScoop



And here's an article you can read from 2014, which explains why they matter now more than they used to.

Why recruiting rankings keep getting better
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Some things are clear as day and don’t require facts...

It’s like asking for a study to show parachutes saves lives **** doesn’t exist bc it’s obvious

Just as it’s obvious large public universities will outspend us bc they are a source of pride for the whole state and region so there is a lot of public support

That’s something our school doesn’t have and probably won’t have.
 
jsy said:
Some things are clear as day and don’t require facts...

It’s like asking for a study to show parachutes saves lives **** doesn’t exist bc it’s obvious

Just as it’s obvious large public universities will outspend us bc they are a source of pride for the whole state and region so there is a lot of public support

That’s something our school doesn’t have and probably won’t have.
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Miami has a lot of support. I'm not buying that as an excuse. We just need to recruit better. Whether that means more resources, or whatever, we need to make it happen and stop giving the team a pass for slacking on the trail.

You're totally right about stars being obvious. Just look at who the impact players are on our current team, look at who the JAGS are, and look at their respective star rankings coming out of high school. It's clear and obvious that our best players were the highest rated ones coming out of high school.

That's the world we live in today. I don't have time for these folks who are still living in the 80's. Adapt or get left behind.

Bottom line, we need to win on the recruiting trail.
 
ShadowSpring said:
Support the claim with supporting facts or it's a false claim.
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Support your counter claim with an athletic department recruiting budget that hasn't increased more than the rate of inflation, staffs that are the same size as the 80's, and proof that major schools are prioritizing the Dakotas and Idaho.
 
RightSaidFred said:
Here's a link to a study showing that stars matter: Do stars matter in recruiting? The data says they do - FootballScoop



And here's an article you can read from 2014, which explains why they matter now more than they used to.

Why recruiting rankings keep getting better
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That is an opinion piece, no actual data.

Also, I am not arguing that rankings don't matter. I've already said they do. Everyone agrees with that, so again this is a scarecrow argument on your part here.

It is NOT the only thing that matters. The history and success of Miami is the only proof I need.

For example, I think the butter zone for Miami is around 10-15. That's where a lot of Butch's classes were. That means we are keeping a good number of blue chippers home (McGahee, Wayne, Kenny Phillips) which is where the rankings matter. Blue Chippers have a higher hit rate than lower rated kids. They form the backbone of the class. We then get the 3* kids that we've been evaluating for many many years. Kids like Sam Brooks, Brownlee, Wiggins, Sean Taylor, Jon Vilma, etc. These recruits have extremely high ceilings, but maybe play a different position or maybe don't have bluechip measurables in some way. They also have a higher miss rate, and perhaps end up as transfers.
 
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