QB recruiting in the aftermath of transfer gate

[rustywalkedaway]

Except you have multiple years to get your room right via HS recruiting, whereas with the portal you only have a couple of months. The advantage of the portal was supposed to be getting and paying for a sure thing. Early returns show that availability isn’t that prevalent and teams will pony up to keep their guy and you may have to over pay.

Let’s be clear here, I’m not anti portal. I view it as a great supplementary resource I just was against it as the main resource for QB recruiting which is what was the debate during the 23 cycle. This is only a piece of that debate, showing that maybe the portal will be tough af in regards to QB recruiting. I’m not doing a victory lap here, just pointing out we have some returns is all and it’s worth continuing that discussion.

From yesterday's Athletic:

6. The post-spring quarterback market still has not materialized. Thirteen scholarship QBs have entered the portal during the spring window, but they have little starting experience to offer. Even the schools looking for a solid QB2 aren’t loving their options right now.

Plus we have to remember that there are, frequently, two different groups of players in the portal - those going in and looking for a new school and those who already found a new school, but need the portal to get there. The comment above speaks to the first group.

 

[ssvir]

So we talked ad nauseam about how this affected the team, how the local media continues to **** on the program and how NIL has gotten out of hand. I want to talk a bit on how this impacted recruiting.

First and foremost the proprietor of this site said it best, if nothing else we found out that Miami’s QB situation is better than Bama’s which in a vacuum is significant. Which brings us to QB recruiting which was quite the polarizing point of contention during the 23 cycle. With the portal being a new and seemingly viable option along with the game changing advent of NIL, there was a line drawn in the sand between those that said we must make HS QB recruiting a priority and those that said it was best to just go to the portal for QBs.

I believe today we got a major data point which I would say was the second one in the most recent transfer cycle. The first major data point was Drake Maye who stuck with UNC early in the cycle. Today, Miami had a major victory by staving off the dominant program of the last 15 years to keep our QB1. Which brings me to my point. Bama, 6 time Chip winner, with all the financial support you could imagine was in dire need of a QB1 and they have thus far missed on their guy. I’d imagine they aren’t done and will get someone worth while but it underscores the reality that relying on the portal for QB recruiting may not be as viable as some made it out to be and that HS recruiting should still be the foundation even if you need to over pay for unproven talent.

4 of the last 5 Heisman QB winners were portal QBs

 

[TooColdToHold]

Lincoln Riley has had a ton of success with transfers. His big time HS recruits always end up leaving.

 

[Rellyrell]

The difference is that in the portal, you're paying for a known commodity. In other words "you know what you're paying for".

But for high school kids, not only do you really not know how good they'll be, but you're not even certain they'll stick around at your school long enough to find out.

I still think Bama can get a QB this year that could start for them..they just were shooting for the stars first. They'll go down the board and find somebody.

Maybe Maye and TVD were there top 2 on the board? You're telling me somebody in the top 10 of their board won't take the money and leave?

What about the guy from coastal Carolina? Or the backup at Texas? So far they've tried to poach a legacy kid who is starting at a P5 program that has plenty of money and a 2 year starter at another P5 program that has NIL $ as well and has other "location advantages".

They'll find a P5 backup or a G5 starter who'll take what they're offering and can start for them.

I don’t think u’re paying for a known commodity in the portal.

We’ve grabbed two QBs from The Portal in recent yrs, one was King, the other was Martell. We know how that played out. The Portal is truly a box of chocolates. We’ve had some home runs, some singles, & some straight strike outs. Another example, UGA picked up former 5 star JT Daniels out of the portal, yet they went w/ their HS/JUCO recruit in Bennett. Daniels have gone from SC, to UGA, to WV, & now Rice.

I think we forget that there’s a good portion of the portal that’s filled w/ guys who couldn’t make it on their current squad & they will never see a FBS field again. Then u have another portion that’s filled w/ guys who didn’t want to wait their turn, so those guys are like securing a HS player w/ potential. Then u have the ones who have production, but want a change of greenery uhhhhhh, I mean scenery. The latter are usually already back channeled & know where their going. Those are the crème de la crème & they are harder to get; the aforementioned groups are crap shoots.

 

[Bunker Mentality]

Except you have multiple years to get your room right via HS recruiting, whereas with the portal you only have a couple of months. The advantage of the portal was supposed to be getting and paying for a sure thing. Early returns show that availability isn’t that prevalent and teams will pony up to keep their guy and you may have to over pay.

Let’s be clear here, I’m not anti portal. I view it as a great supplementary resource I just was against it as the main resource for QB recruiting which is what was the debate during the 23 cycle. This is only a piece of that debate, showing that maybe the portal will be tough af in regards to QB recruiting. I’m not doing a victory lap here, just pointing out we have some returns is all and it’s worth continuing that discussion.

I don't have a dog in this fight, just appreciating the back and forth.

 

[bobbydigius]

I don't have a dog in this fight, just appreciating the back and forth.

I don’t have a dog just believe one side is the better play but it remains to be seen if it will be correct. It’s definitely given the CFB coaching job description another layer. Recruiting was tough enough, but now these guys are outright playing GM. More than ever roster mismanagement can completely tank a season or a career.

 

[Bunker Mentality]

I don’t have a dog just believe one side is the better play but it remains to be seen if it will be correct. It’s definitely given the CFB coaching job description another layer. Recruiting was tough enough, but now these guys are outright playing GM. More than ever roster mismanagement can completely tank a season or a career.

Yup. That's why we have Zo, and top teams have an NFL infrastructure.

 

[Cane Tankerous]

@bobbydigius
regarding your, "Like I said, just early returns, but so far they say that relying on the portal for that quality known commodity at QB isnt... reliable"


It's tough for me to figure out your point. At a minimum, your argument is at least as much refuted as it is supported by Ala Baga's transfer portal failures.

They have hand picked the high school quarterbacks for 3 years, and NONE OF THOSE HS QBs have been setting the world on fire so far. That would support the "Dont overpay for unproven HS QBs narrative".

If a top 10 successful college QB joins them, they will be well better off than putting a ton of limited resources into HS QB's.

Of course, the best course is to have unlimited resources and stack the roster with the best players money can buy in both HS and through the portal!

 

[Golsen82]

The difference is that in the portal, you're paying for a known commodity. In other words "you know what you're paying for".

But for high school kids, not only do you really not know how good they'll be, but you're not even certain they'll stick around at your school long enough to find out.

I still think Bama can get a QB this year that could start for them..they just were shooting for the stars first. They'll go down the board and find somebody.

Maybe Maye and TVD were there top 2 on the board? You're telling me somebody in the top 10 of their board won't take the money and leave?

What about the guy from coastal Carolina? Or the backup at Texas? So far they've tried to poach a legacy kid who is starting at a P5 program that has plenty of money and a 2 year starter at another P5 program that has NIL $ as well and has other "location advantages".

They'll find a P5 backup or a G5 starter who'll take what they're offering and can start for them.

Alabama probably going after Malik murphy

 

[Brooklyndee]

So we talked ad nauseam about how this affected the team, how the local media continues to **** on the program and how NIL has gotten out of hand. I want to talk a bit on how this impacted recruiting.

First and foremost the proprietor of this site said it best, if nothing else we found out that Miami’s QB situation is better than Bama’s which in a vacuum is significant. Which brings us to QB recruiting which was quite the polarizing point of contention during the 23 cycle. With the portal being a new and seemingly viable option along with the game changing advent of NIL, there was a line drawn in the sand between those that said we must make HS QB recruiting a priority and those that said it was best to just go to the portal for QBs.

I believe today we got a major data point which I would say was the second one in the most recent transfer cycle. The first major data point was Drake Maye who stuck with UNC early in the cycle. Today, Miami had a major victory by staving off the dominant program of the last 15 years to keep our QB1. Which brings me to my point. Bama, 6 time Chip winner, with all the financial support you could imagine was in dire need of a QB1 and they have thus far missed on their guy. I’d imagine they aren’t done and will get someone worth while but it underscores the reality that relying on the portal for QB recruiting may not be as viable as some made it out to be and that HS recruiting should still be the foundation even if you need to over pay for unproven talent.

The only people that think the portal is the primary option for recruiting now are fans. Coaching staffs don't view it that way at all. The portal is where people go to fill a whole not where they go to build a team. Obviously there's exceptions to the rule. But largely put staffs don't open up many spots for transfers. Even worse for grad transfers.

 

[Cribby]

Did Bama go all in for TVD or did we just make him an offer he couldn't refuse?

Bama likely had a number, I'd bet we went well north of if it's the latter of the two. If that's the case, hopefully it pays off for us. Not only in play here, but in the draft.

Players are commodities at this point and everyone values everyone differently. I'd love to know the numbers.

TVD passed on Bama , who else would’ve done this if they’d came calling for one of our starters? Some posters here may be butthurt by this because it got out but there’s been other players do this, but either our media didn’t know ( I doubt that) or they didn’t leak it. Now why would that be ?

There’s been people leak info on TVD twice now even though at the time it wasn’t close to a sure thing he was leaving. It really makes me wonder …..the agendas I see are quite obvious. Grown adults leaking stuff from other players who might not like a certain guy and it’s beyond obvious.

 

[WestGA'Cane]

TVD passed on Bama , who else would’ve done this if they’d came calling for one of our starters? Some posters here may be butthurt by this because it got out but there’s been other players do this, but either our media didn’t know ( I doubt that) or they didn’t leak it. Now why would that be ?

Ive seen a certain “ media “ person leak info on TVD twice now even though at the time it wasn’t close to a sure thing he was leaving. It really makes me wonder …..the agendas I see are quite obvious. Grown adults leaking stuff from kids who might not like a certain guy and it’s beyond obvious. Over the years it’s gotten pretty easy to tell where people get info from.

Yeah, let's hope the agenda-driven stuff stays outside the program. Can be extremely divisive coming from within.
I was very concerned at the prospect of losing TVD; but don't mind AT ALL the prospect of bringing in some legitimate competition for the spot, or at least a more seasoned backup.

 

[Cookie917]

So we talked ad nauseam about how this affected the team, how the local media continues to **** on the program and how NIL has gotten out of hand. I want to talk a bit on how this impacted recruiting.

First and foremost the proprietor of this site said it best, if nothing else we found out that Miami’s QB situation is better than Bama’s which in a vacuum is significant. Which brings us to QB recruiting which was quite the polarizing point of contention during the 23 cycle. With the portal being a new and seemingly viable option along with the game changing advent of NIL, there was a line drawn in the sand between those that said we must make HS QB recruiting a priority and those that said it was best to just go to the portal for QBs.

I believe today we got a major data point which I would say was the second one in the most recent transfer cycle. The first major data point was Drake Maye who stuck with UNC early in the cycle. Today, Miami had a major victory by staving off the dominant program of the last 15 years to keep our QB1. Which brings me to my point. Bama, 6 time Chip winner, with all the financial support you could imagine was in dire need of a QB1 and they have thus far missed on their guy. I’d imagine they aren’t done and will get someone worth while but it underscores the reality that relying on the portal for QB recruiting may not be as viable as some made it out to be and that HS recruiting should still be the foundation even if you need to over pay for unproven talent.

It is a chicken and the egg. I also think Bama is going to be the exception instead of the rule.

My .02 was I was against the reported NIL for Rashada. I would have preferred to wait until the market adjusts a little as I do not believe the figures being reported are sustainable once these NIL babies are NIL teenagers and either do not pan out or jump ship. Going to be interested to see a guy, say Nico for example, fall flat, transfer then the collective tries to stiff him on a payment and how that shakes out.

I am all for a HS QB, target a top tier guy every year and if the mutual interest and $$'s make sense sign him up. If not, go get a lower ranked developmental kid then go for the portal. Obviously certain factors can change this such as if our QB room was bare, we are in dire need and are forced to spend.

As far as Bama coming for TVD, the reason I say that is an exception is because Bama was trying to get a starting QB at another P5 school. That would be like us going after CJ Stroud. Guy has zero interest to transfer and we have to try to poach. Bama can do that because it is Bama but the portal and Saban's use show his evals may be not as good as they once were. He is trying to get difference makers to plug a few spots every year. Gibbs the RB from GT and Jameson WR from OSU come to mind. I would hope our portal strategy would be to have a clear cut starter (such as TVD) then use the portal to get a highly ranked kid that was passed up by a young phenom or politics (looking at you texas) or a coaching change or just general unhappiness.

 

[bobbydigius]

@bobbydigius
regarding your, "Like I said, just early returns, but so far they say that relying on the portal for that quality known commodity at QB isnt... reliable"


It's tough for me to figure out your point. At a minimum, your argument is at least as much refuted as it is supported by Ala Baga's transfer portal failures.

They have hand picked the high school quarterbacks for 3 years, and NONE OF THOSE HS QBs have been setting the world on fire so far. That would support the "Dont overpay for unproven HS QBs narrative".

If a top 10 successful college QB joins them, they will be well better off than putting a ton of limited resources into HS QB's.

Of course, the best course is to have unlimited resources and stack the roster with the best players money can buy in both HS and through the portal!

Well we already know the pitfalls of HS recruiting, that was a fixed variable. The idea was to punt on that risk by saving money and hitting the portal was the discussion. Bama missed on their top 2 choices that we know of.

 

[Fightinibis]

So we talked ad nauseam about how this affected the team, how the local media continues to **** on the program and how NIL has gotten out of hand. I want to talk a bit on how this impacted recruiting.

First and foremost the proprietor of this site said it best, if nothing else we found out that Miami’s QB situation is better than Bama’s which in a vacuum is significant. Which brings us to QB recruiting which was quite the polarizing point of contention during the 23 cycle. With the portal being a new and seemingly viable option along with the game changing advent of NIL, there was a line drawn in the sand between those that said we must make HS QB recruiting a priority and those that said it was best to just go to the portal for QBs.

I believe today we got a major data point which I would say was the second one in the most recent transfer cycle. The first major data point was Drake Maye who stuck with UNC early in the cycle. Today, Miami had a major victory by staving off the dominant program of the last 15 years to keep our QB1. Which brings me to my point. Bama, 6 time Chip winner, with all the financial support you could imagine was in dire need of a QB1 and they have thus far missed on their guy. I’d imagine they aren’t done and will get someone worth while but it underscores the reality that relying on the portal for QB recruiting may not be as viable as some made it out to be and that HS recruiting should still be the foundation even if you need to over pay for unproven talent.

Great post.

The sad reality, however, is that Alabama never needs a GREAT QB to run that semi-pro 5 star offense and clearly they saw disgruntled DVD (from last year anyway) as an underpaid NIL target to veteran their offense to success this year.

I would love to cheer for a victory against a school that has poached our coaching and recruiting backyard since Saban has been there…but your point is well taken, that is, that completely relying on the portal for QB would be to our detriment.

 

[407cane]

the constant mayhem will also encourage backups to stay

for instance, Garcia would have been kicking himself had TVD actually left

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

This is a good thread with some interesting viewpoints.

One of my takeaways, using Alabama as an example, is that even with top notch recruiting for the quarterback position, there is an inherent risk because of the low hit rate, even with the higher rated prospects.

You have to be on point not just with recruiting and evaluations, but you have to have a forward looking portal strategy as well, when it comes to QBs.

In other words, a sub-rosa recruiting strategy for QBs already in college.

 

[canecane232323]

My sincere prediction is TVD throws for 35+ tds and qb recruiting isn't a problem again, but i also dont think its a problem now.

This team is better than 8-4 that people are predicting, especially if we score 30+ a game.

 

[NorthEastCane]

Later for the either or approach. It's best to recruit a QB1 every year from high school, and attack the portal when a need / opportunity arises to improve the squad.

I believe this was the intent but then we lost Air Nolan. Now we're attacking the portal. This year, we most likely planned to do both anyhow given the current roster, there's no one you can be confident to become a capable back up if needed.

You have to bring someone in every year to be less vulnerable.

 

[mossmadness]

This is a good thread with some interesting viewpoints.

One of my takeaways, using Alabama as an example, is that even with top notch recruiting for the quarterback position, there is an inherent risk because of the low hit rate, even with the higher rated prospects.

You have to be on point not just with recruiting and evaluations, but you have to have a forward looking portal strategy as well, when it comes to QBs.

In other words, a sub-rosa recruiting strategy for QBs already in college.

We also don’t know if Alabama has actually “missed” at QB, or if they simply don’t feel as if either guy is ready to win a NC at this point in their career. Which wouldn’t really be a “miss,” the same way Dorsey wasn’t ready to win a NC right off the bat. But he was still a hit at QB recruiting.

I wonder if the previous two years hadn’t happened, if Saban would be willing to settle for a 10-2, 11-1 type year, and go all in on 2024.

But now he has 2 years of UGA being the new Bama, and so there’s probably some demand for a NC contender type season. Which means a just add water ready QB.