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Cryptical Envelopment said:
Using 247 rankings (ugh):

2021:

Is #1 overall ranked Quinn Ewers a "hit?" Generational prospect that produced nothing for the team that signed him, transferred and is a "starter" at Texas that didn't play well enough to not have a competition this spring. Not playing like a 5-star yet, that's for sure. TBD.

#8 Caleb Williams: home run.

#23 Sam Huard: bust.

#24 Drake Maye: home run

#34 Brock Vandagriff: didn't win the job again. Non-starter.

#38 JJ McCarthy: hit.

#48 Kaidon Salter: transferred down to Liberty, bust.

I have 2021 at 3/6 plus whatever Ewers ends up as. But I don't think he's ever going to pan out as a 5-star and he was a zero for the team that signed him. When you factor that in, I lean miss. So I am going with 3/7 for 2021 with the admission that Quinn is a debate. But its my post lol.


2020:

#1 Bryce Young: home run.

#2 DJ Uiagalelei: Miss. Was hyped up and handed the job at Clemson, ended up getting beaten out by a younger player and transferred to Oregon St. where he supposedly isn't faring well.

#29 CJ Stroud: home run.

#45 Evan Prater: miss. Hasn't been able to win the job and Cincinnati just recruited (Emory Jones!) over him in the portal.

#46: Ja'Quinden Jackson: miss. Already transferred out.

2020 is 2/5.


2019:

#9 Spencer Ratler: I gotta go miss. Was a top 10 prospect and couldn't hold onto the job and transferred. Even starting at USCe he had 18 TD's and 12 INT's this year. Even besides not panning out for the team that took him, that's a 3-star performance.

#35 Jayden Daniels: this one is really, really tough. He transferred after a rough up and down time at ASU where he had a rough time (10 TD and 10 INTs in 2022) so he was a miss there. But he had a "nice" season at LSU this year, protecting the ball (3 INT's) but only 17 TD's and a lower RTG rating than when he was a freshman. I can't say he has played anywhere near his rating, or ever will, but since I dinged Ewers earlier I am going to project him to continue to develop and have a nice 2023 and "hit" to try to keep it fair and balanced.

I guess I am going 1/2 for 2019, but meh.


2018:

#1: Sunshine da gawd!

#2: Justin Fields. Another "miss" for the team tat signed him, which goes back to an earlier post of mine about there being an ROI failure rate of ~70% for teams who get a commitment from a top 100 (5-star and high 4-star) QB, but he was a big hit for OSU so hit overall.

#16 JT Daniels: miss. At Rice now, his 4th school.

#36: Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Ugh. Well he definitely didn't pan out to his rating. Solid starter on a mediocre team that was never able to recruit over him and was entranced by his athleticism. 88 TD and 36 (!) INT's in a long career at UCLA. Drafted down in the 5th round as the 10th QB taken. I guess that's a hit? Gross.

#43 Justin Rodgers TCU: miss. transferred down to UNLV.

#46 Tanner McKee: If I have to take a hit on DTR I'm giving TMK a hot miss. "Starter" on the 2nd worst program in P5 does not make a top 50 elite QB a hit. 13 TDs and 8 INTs last year, you could even say he regressed.

So 2018 is 3/6.


Ok I'm bored. And not making a point anyway, just providing info. The above comes out to 9/19 or 47%. As mentioned from previous data if you get a commit from a top 100 QB the hit rate is about 30% (includes flips, transfers and busts, etc).

And no one tell I'm wrong on any of these cause no, you are! :)
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This is just wrong.
 
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DMoney said:
Let’s end this argument right here.

Four out of the last six Heisman QBs were transfers.

Now take a look at the odds for next year’s Heisman. Five of the six quarterbacks are transfers.

The NFL tells a similar story. In the last five drafts, 33% of the QBs drafted have been transfers. That is a higher percentage than blue-chip signees (31%). And remember, most of this is before the Portal era opened up.

Anybody trying to downplay the QB talent in the Portal is wrong. And their argument will get worse every year.
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Michael Scott Wink GIF
 
mossmadness said:
Hooker had a **** good season. But playing in the Veer and Shoot is like a cheat code in college.

You really can’t have us banking on VT rejects that were last seen having the shakes on the sideline as a legit strategy?

Nix would have been the same thing.

Ewers hasn’t really done much yet, and is a lot like Caleb Williams, in that he wasn’t actually available for anybody else in the portal.
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Nah dog, Hooker was that guy, and even with his injury was a high draft pick, healthy he's in the first round. Can't do that, my guy.
 
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407cane said:
why isn't Mario the HC a portal player wouldn't want to play for?

he's gone off his normal script and hired an air raid disciple QB

we have John Ruiz and one of the best NIL situations in the country

and we're located near south beach

we've proven no issue in getting top tier talent to transfer, even when Manny was the HC, most notably d'eriq king
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I didnt say a portal player I said a portal qb. You're playing dumb to why that is you're just looking to argue. he went off script so hopefully after this season the perception of him changes. then we'll see what happens
 
DMoney said:
Nope. Burrow.

And that doesn’t get into Fields, Hooker, Levis, Penix, Travis, Nix, Ewers and more.

There are already more transfer QBs being drafted than blue-chippers and the Portal hasn’t even been revved up that long.
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Okay so 3 of the 4 transferred to Lincoln Riley.

But what you're neglecting to mention is that all of these schools still signed blue chip qb's to go along with those portal players... Texas, Ohio state, Tennessee, Oregon etc.
 
There’s two issues here:

1. Is there a high bust rate amongst high ranking QBs? Meaning they end up being sh*tty college players, so aren’t worth the money?

2. There isn’t a high bust rate, but you don’t benefit from it anyway, even if you land them?

A lot of people, particularly D$, love to go in and out of these arguments.

There’s no point in arguing the former. Even the “list” put above has a high non-bust rate.

The second argument can at least be debated. But it’s dumb because that transfer rate is largely a product of the original team hitting at QB. Those schools aren’t complaining. Which is why they keep doing it.
 
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Zanecane said:
I didnt say a portal player I said a portal qb. You're playing dumb to why that is you're just looking to argue. he went off script so hopefully after this season the perception of him changes. then we'll see what happens
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I'm not playing dumb, it's just a dumb point you're trying to make. He inherited a solid qb room here so he didn't need to get a portal qb, he didn't need to have a portal qb at Oregon either due to the roster he had.

there's no reason to believe he can't land a portal qb, especially with our new offensive coordinator, our NIL situation, and our location
 
mossmadness said:
The second argument can at least be debated. But it’s dumb because that transfer rate is largely a product of the original team hitting at QB. Those schools aren’t complaining. Which is why they keep doing it.
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Where are all these top teams ignoring the portal?

Is it Georgia, which took a USC transfer and a Wake Forest transfer to beat out their JUCO transfer?

Is it Ohio State, which went to the Championship with a Georgia transfer?

Or is it Alabama, which just took a transfer after tampering with everyone?

The numbers are clear. There are already more transfer QBs getting drafted than blue-chip signees. That’s a five year sample with 57 QBs. And that’s before the Portal era even got going. The gap will only grow.

Portal QBs are easier to evaluate because they play against college players. This isn’t rocket science. Build up a blue-chip OL and skill position group, allocate the NIL money and sign a stud. In high school, save money and try to find the next multisport, underrated, future NFL QB.

And there is the last part that @mossmadness and others continue to ignore- we can’t sign Top 5 QBs on autopilot like the top programs. We have no track record. We would have to overpay. And as the numbers make abundantly clear, it’s not a smart use of limited resources.
 
DMoney said:
Let’s end this argument right here.

Four out of the last six Heisman QBs were transfers.

Now take a look at the odds for next year’s Heisman. Five of the six quarterbacks are transfers.

The NFL tells a similar story. In the last five drafts, 33% of the QBs drafted have been transfers. That is a higher percentage than blue-chip signees (31%). And remember, most of this is before the Portal era opened up.

Anybody trying to downplay the QB talent in the Portal is wrong. And their argument will get worse every year.
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Just people looking to pick fights. Its clear as day where the position is. U dont have a starter, go take one off man roster. Or u see a spot u could play, you not waiting behind other players knowing u can start somewhere else
 
01Canes said:
This was not a good year at all for teams that needed a QB through the portal and it should’ve really opened some people’s eyes as to how it should not be viewed as some full blown replacement “strategy” that would somehow justify punting on blue-chip QB recruiting (which our staff is NOT doing but has yet to get ideal results), especially when your head coach’s reputation with QB’s is the polar opposite of the coach who’s had, by far, the most success with QB’s in the portal.

Leary landed at Kentucky for his fifth year of eligibility instead of entering the draft for a reason. When Alabama failed to lure Drake Maye or TVD, they had to settle for the QB that Notre Dame was so dissatisfied with that they themselves brought in Hartman from Wake to supplant him. Anyone want to end up like UF and trot out someone like Graham Mertz next season?

Some here are vastly underestimating how much of a bidding war will take place when/if a Maalik Murphy caliber QB hits the portal next offseason. And a player who will have that many options and countless NIL offers to choose from is no less of a dogfight to try to land than a top 50-100 overall QB recruit.
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No one punted on anyone. People are simply telling yall to stoo this sky is falling mentality because teams didnt get a so called blue chip QB in high school.
 
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407cane said:
I'm not playing dumb, it's just a dumb point you're trying to make. He inherited a solid qb room here so he didn't need to get a portal qb, he didn't need to have a portal qb at Oregon either due to the roster he had.

there's no reason to believe he can't land a portal qb, especially with our new offensive coordinator, our NIL situation, and our location
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How does the QB room look after a year of him being here? More questions than answers.

He inherited a franchise QB at Oregon and then left the room in such bad shape they had to go get a transfer QB.

I’m a big fan of Mario but to say he’s had success in the QB room is laughable.
 
Zanecane said:
How does the QB room look after a year of him being here? More questions than answers.

He inherited a franchise QB at Oregon and then left the room in such bad shape they had to go get a transfer QB.

I’m a big fan of Mario but to say he’s had success in the QB room is laughable.
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completely changed the point of the whole discussion in your post

my post clearly stated that there was no reason to believe we wouldn't be able to land elite portal qb's as needed. obviously having someone like TVD on roster deters that from happening but I suspect we'll be fine

Mario may have his struggles but with a Shannon Dawson offense, a lackluster qb room next year, location like Miami has, and our NIL situation, I suspect we'll be just fine

similarly to how Manny landed d'eriq king
 
Btw am not sure people knows this but these arguments man putting up with Cristobal and QBs, almost mirror image of UGA fans on Kirby, especially when it seemed they took a step back after reaching the title game in 2017 and probably should have won it. Especially after Fields left and lit it up at Ohio.

Only winning titles gonna change man mind. No type of facts or context will @DMoney

Even the youtuber Uncle Lou used to be against Stetson Bennett. UGA will never win anything with Bennett, we need Joe Burrow, Tua blah blah. 2 titles back to back. And they are still on and on about u can only win with blue chip QBs, blue chip according to 247. Let mario fix the OL, and the QB weapons. Then we can judge if we can only win with 5 star QB's. Even Ohio won their titles with the worse rated QB's they had on their roster.
 
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407cane said:
completely changed the point of the whole discussion in your post

my post clearly stated that there was no reason to believe we wouldn't be able to land elite portal qb's as needed. obviously having someone like TVD on roster deters that from happening but I suspect we'll be fine

Mario may have his struggles but with a Shannon Dawson offense, a lackluster qb room next year, location like Miami has, and our NIL situation, I suspect we'll be just fine

similarly to how Manny landed d'eriq king
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Yes… and my original post was saying that it’s not the ideal way to go into a season. Hoping for a portal QB to come next offseason and room full of projects.

You’re okay with it because you think the situation is similar to Manny getting king.

We’ll agree to disagree.
 
407cane said:
Icompletely changed the point of the whole discussion in your post

my post clearly stated that there was no reason to believe we wouldn't be able to land elite portal qb's as needed. obviously having someone like TVD on roster deters that from happening but I suspect we'll be fine

Mario may have his struggles but with a Shannon Dawson offense, a lackluster qb room next year, location like Miami has, and our NIL situation, I suspect we'll be just fine

similarly to how Manny landed d'eriq king
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I would argue Rhett Lashlee is the reason D'Eriq King transferred to Miami. Manny Diaz was just happened to be the head coach....
 
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