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On Judd Anderson

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Noliaboi said:
I would like for us to get good at developing QBs. Creates continuity and leadership within the program. I hope we don’t start depending on the portal for our starting QB every year.

My hope is that Cam Ward light it up and we become a destination for 4-5 QBs.
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I tend to agree with you but I do think there is something to be said about a new trend that has emerged with transfer QBs though. Im pro going the HS route and while I believe the evidence thus far is inconclusive on the portal QB movement, its at least an emerging trend. Sometimes the game does just change and maybe we are witnessing that right now. We just went from the QB room being a dumpster fire to us having a top 10 guy, maybe top 5 guy in the nation starting.
 
bobbydigius said:
I tend to agree with you but I do think there is something to be said about a new trend that has emerged with transfer QBs though. Im pro going the HS route and while I believe the evidence thus far is inconclusive on the portal QB movement, its at least an emerging trend. Sometimes the game does just change and maybe we are witnessing that right now. We just went from the QB room being a dumpster fire to us having a top 10 guy, maybe top 5 guy in the nation starting.
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I agree but I feel like playing the portal QB game every year is like gambling and eventually you’re going to get dealt a bad hand and lose.
 
Noliaboi said:
I agree but I feel like playing the portal QB game every year is like gambling and eventually you’re going to get dealt a bad hand and lose.
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That was 100% my stance and I still lean that way but everything is based on results. It wasnt pretty but we got the best guy in the portal in terms of a 1 year rental and the FCS kid is at least better than Judd, Emory and JB. That doesnt say much but we outright improved the room.

Now I dont think we will always be able to pony up the most money by a sizable margin to land our guy but it worked. A big year by Ward changes everything for Mario and the program, IMHO we may need to dip in that portal again next year because even though Poff is better than what we have, Im not sure he is it.
 
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Noliaboi said:
I agree but I feel like playing the portal QB game every year is like gambling and eventually you’re going to get dealt a bad hand and lose.
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I agree with you, but believe we need a combination of recruits and portal players to thrive at QB.


bobbydigius said:
That was 100% my stance and I still lean that way but everything is based on results. It wasnt pretty but we got the best guy in the portal in terms of a 1 year rental and the FCS kid is at least better than Judd, Emory and JB. That doesnt say much but we outright improved the room.

Now I dont think we will always be able to pony up the most money by a sizable margin to land our guy but it worked. A big year by Ward changes everything for Mario and the program, IMHO we may need to dip in that portal again next year because even though Poff is better than what we have, Im not sure he is it.
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We need to do both. Like you said, it's based on results, and needs. That is as fluid as it gets. Being able to target both is optimal, imho.
 
i think what D$ is saying is obvious and based on facts of our present climate in cfb
i think what everyone is saying to D$ is - your model only works if you are winning
 
bdcane4eva said:
i think what D$ is saying is obvious and based on facts of our present climate in cfb
i think what everyone is saying to D$ is - your model only works if you are winning
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It works if you’re winning, a good NIL and the rest of your roster is stacked.

The way Mario moves in the portal, I still think he “prefers” roster building through HS.

At least publicly, we never go after the big names that enter the portal.
 
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816Cane said:
Say Judd doesn't hit.. what is the loss? One scholarship used for a scout team QB. And you go shopping for a portal kid so you can try to hit again.

If he does hit, you get him cheap on a rookie deal and get first mover advantage on when and how to pay him.

This is a much more sustainable strategy long term than going for 5* HS kids every year at QB, or even on a kid transferring after one year.

There are no-brainers, but they are the outliers and not the majority.
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Nailed it. Imagine if Jake Garcia were a high school recruit now and it goes exactly how it went the first time. We would’ve gotten into a bidding war with USC and he ends up being a guy who hit the transfer portal twice. Don’t over pay for high school qbs.
 
Noliaboi said:
It works if you’re winning, a good NIL and the rest of your roster is stacked.

The way Mario moves in the portal, I still think he “prefers” roster building through HS.

At least publicly, we never go after the big names that enter the portal.
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The big names know where they are going before they enter.
 
bdcane4eva said:
i think what D$ is saying is obvious and based on facts of our present climate in cfb
i think what everyone is saying to D$ is - your model only works if you are winning
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If you’re not winning and/or paying, you aren’t getting a Top 10 high school QB anyway.

The plan isn’t to ignore high school QBs. It’s to take less expensive, high upside multisport QBs. Those are the guys who dominate the pros. They won’t all hit, but you allocate money to the Portal to minimize downside.
 
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bobbydigius said:
Did most of these QBs fetch the same money Ward did as freshmen? You are closer to the situation but it’s hard to fully judge these situations without all the facts available. No doubt a 5 star or high 4 star QB will be expensive but did those schools really break the bank on those guys in just one year?
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@DMoney this is my main question. I've read Manning, Iamaleava, Moore, Rashada, Sayin and Nolan all got 7 figures, which sounds in the ballpark with what Ward got. But those guys are multi-year and Ward is 1-year. Is the annual NIL commitment to those guys even close to a Ward deal?
 
DMoney said:
Then look at the other side of the equation: all of those players quickly became available to everyone else, with more film available.
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Wouldn’t be the worst mindset for Mario to have with some of the high dollar SoFla kids (if we ever start winning). Let the other schools feed them, teach them, pay them.. then bring them home.

Jeremiah SmifF I’m looking at you.
 
DMoney said:
If you’re not winning and/or paying, you aren’t getting a Top 10 high school QB anyway.

The plan isn’t to ignore high school QBs. It’s to take less expensive, high upside multisport QBs. Those are the guys who dominate the pros. They won’t all hit, but you allocate money to the Portal to minimize downside.
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Then you better hit in the portal. You’re playing QB Russian Roulette. What if there isn’t a quality starter in the portal? Or we don’t win out. We were dangerously close to running with JB, Emory , and Poff this year. What if there was no Cam Ward? The good schools do both. LSU took Jayden Daniels and Walker Howard the same year. Howard transferred and Daniels wins the heisman. So what do they do? They took another 4* QB this year and got the transfer from Vandy. That’s just one example. If we aren’t playing in both arenas we are always going to be behind on the room IMO
 
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UGA was bringing in 5*s for a good clip - still didn't win **** until a former walk-on. Michigan just won one with a high 4* - but he sure as **** wasn't the difference.

Outside of Saban... you gotta get extremely lucky and catch lightning in a bottle. But you gotta keep recruiting Watsons and Lawrences regardless.
 
I've been saying this for a while. The competition even if we are top 5 spenders on average isn't just the 4 schools ahead of us, it's ALL the top 25 schools that can afford to go all out for a player here and there. Sure on average we're spending more, but can you afford to out pay Missouri for the 5 star they are breaking the bank for (And not going after anyone else in that cost realm) while still going for 15 other top 200 level players?
With NIL top players are not really all going to be as concentrated in just the same 5 programs all the time imo because of this.

Now I have also been saying for a while Going for TOP QBs out of HS is just a dumb plan financially - unless you are 100% convinced that they are going to be your starter Day 1. Wasting >$1M on a top 3 QB out of HS for him to sit the bench is just idiotic planning, when that money can be spent on the top portal QB or trying to lure a top 1/2yr QB into the portal and try to get him to play 2 years. HS is too risky to spend BIG money on a QB that you aren't intending to play right away. I'm talking the Trevor Lawrence type that you 100% believe is day 1 walking in to start. However there could be the middle ground of like the 8-15ish ranked guy - especially if we get on them early. Luke Nickel is a great example of this. Currently rated as a 3 star. And while hella people are saying he could end up a 5 star, I'll just point out that there are already 3 5star composite Qbs in the 2025 class (2024 only had 4, 2023 had 5, 2022 had 4). So I'd bet all my money that none of the 3 are losing their 5th star. That means maybe there is room for 1-2 guys to get that 5th star. Is Nickel really going to go from 3star to 5star? Unlikely. **** right now he's literally listed as the #30 QB in 2025. I think its possible he finishes top 10, but he's probably not going to be just stupidly expensive, especially since we got him to commit so early, and it is shaping up for us to have an open competition next year, and for him to have 1 yr experience when he'd probably be the favorite for the starter role... These are the exact guys out of HS you get. The 3star/4star with potential that you were on early that make the leap their final year when they're already in the bag and not going to be a massive expense to sit the bench.
 
grover said:
@DMoney this is my main question. I've read Manning, Iamaleava, Moore, Rashada, Sayin and Nolan all got 7 figures, which sounds in the ballpark with what Ward got. But those guys are multi-year and Ward is 1-year. Is the annual NIL commitment to those guys even close to a Ward deal?
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How many of those guys were worth the 7 figure deals based on their performance on the field? 2 of them didn't even play, and could transfer tomorrow and it'd be money down the drain. Moore was objectively bad. Rashada was a headach and probably didn't end up with 7 figures I'd guess. TBD for Sayin, but if Bama dropped their classic bag on Saying, well he's already out before the ink even dried after like a week of classes.
Qbs just make more money than other positions. So not getting the production out of them just has larger consequences and risk. Paying a top EDGE/OT/DT and them sitting a year, you can still be confident you'll get 2-3 years of valuable production for what you paid. QB? Its a toss up if they'll even play a meaningful down for you.
 
Transfer QB are better and proven but it should also be noted that Jayden Daniels, Bo nix , Jordan Travis and Michael Penix didnt light it up before they transferred and turned into what they are now by good QB coaching and offensive schemes...

Teams who go for transfer QB also go for high QB recruits as well as miami, saying anything else is disingenuous. Miami literally went for Sayin and Air noland last year but missed so yes Miami did go for a high ranking QB (what team doesnt??)

Point is QB recruiting needs to be better and I think it will improve, last year we changed entire coaching staff basically and the 2022 cycle we lost Rashada. to the inept false promising collective from the Gators.

We have been offering a ton of high ranking QB's in the 2025 class even though we have Nickle so seems like the staff now has some stability and is looking to add QB recruiting talent in the next class.

Miami spent a ton of money on Cam Ward so obviously isnt going to go for Sayin or Sayin just isnt interested. What are we even talking about guys?
 
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