On Judd Anderson

[MumbleRap]

Think it’s a mixture. If you’re paying up for a 5* HS QB and they flop… think that says more about the person who 1) evaluated the kid & 2) the person who gave the green light to spend on said recruit.

You can win both ways (portal QB & elite HS kid), just gotta trust the person making the call and hope it’s the right one.

 

[cway313]

Not every position is as volatile out of high school as QB, and not every position has as many strong options in the Portal.

Spend money on HS linemen, WRs and CBs, and Portal QBs.

I was hoping this would have been a lesson learned.

 

[TooColdToHold]

I see what you're saying, but.. Assuming you can just take a QB out of the portal is incredibly risky though. It turns it into a necessity. That's exactly how you end up overpaying. Plus, there's no guarantee a portal QB will be available. Even with back channeling. Miss on a high school guy, you can fall back on the portal. Miss on your portal guy.. then what?

You can mitigate some of that risk by signing cheaper lower rated kids every year and trying to develop them to be QB1.

 

[cway313]

Think it’s a mixture. If you’re paying up for a 5* HS QB and they flop… think that says more about the person who 1) evaluated the kid & 2) the person who gave the green light to spend on said recruit.

You can win both ways (portal QB & elite HS kid), just gotta trust the person making the call and hope it’s the right one.

No other serious school is operating that way.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

Say Judd doesn't hit.. what is the loss? One scholarship used for a scout team QB. And you go shopping for a portal kid so you can try to hit again.

If he does hit, you get him cheap on a rookie deal and get first mover advantage on when and how to pay him.

This is a much more sustainable strategy long term than going for 5* HS kids every year at QB, or even on a kid transferring after one year.

There are no-brainers, but they are the outliers and not the majority.

If Judd (or any high school QB) doesn't hit, then you HAVE TO take a portal QB.

If he DOES hit, you're going to have to pay him to keep him.

I guess the thinking here is you'd save money by not having to pay him for his first two years.

Its like the NFL. You either have a QB you're forced to pay big money to or you're looking for a QB to pay big money to.

 

[RedSquare]

Then look at the other side of the equation: all of those players quickly became available to everyone else, with more film available.

and more to the point, at least 3 of those guys have already shown they will never be as good as their hype. Despite what the hoi polloi claim.

CIS Rule: The real experts are Andrew Ivins and Josh Newberg, ..... and all those other guys who were working as car stereo salesmen before they found the internet.

forget it, Danny .... follow the adages of Mark Twain: "Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."

 

[MumbleRap]

No other serious school is operating that way.

Doesn’t have to be the same as any other school. As long as it works.

Personally I think the canes identified 2/3 high level QBs they wanted (Norland, Sayin, Hurley). Once they either 1) didn’t think they were worth final asking price or 2) just lost the battle… they moved on to Judd and/or chose to just roll with Judd.

I think the same with 2025 cycle. They liked Nickel along with 2/3 others and first in boat got the spot…. Miami isn’t going to pay & just take a high level kid just because.

 

[Cane44]

If Judd (or any high school QB) doesn't hit, then you HAVE TO take a portal QB.

If he DOES hit, you're going to have to pay him to keep him.

I guess the thinking here is you'd save money by not having to pay him for his first two years.

Its like the NFL. You either have a QB you're forced to pay big money to or you're looking for a QB to pay big money to.

agree with saving money on the lower 4 / high 3 star QB's that you do your HW on the first two years.. Everyone will be paying their QB's, so would rather save money and time initially and pray you hit. the 5star QB's take a lot of resources / a$$ kissing / money immediately and you still don't know if you hit.... Portal QB you're putting what 1-2months of heavy work into, and dealing with a more mature person that can recognize a better situation for themselves??? 5star QB's are taking 2-3 years of your time, no guarantee they stick with commitment and a lot of time get swayed for the wrong reasons and fits.

 

[MumbleRap]

No other serious school is operating that way.

Also would assume the war board is very similar to NFL salary cap. They like QB1 at X amount, but do they like him enough to pay twice that? I think Judd was higher on board and for the cost it was something they liked compared to spending 4/5X that amount and missing out on 2/3 other key players. In perfect world you get them all. Unfortunately, it’s not at UM. Miami isn’t going to be Texas, just need to hit on evals.

 

[01Canes]

Since this insane talking point is being rehashed, let me ask this again.

When Luke Nickel gets bumped up to high 4* status and the UGA's of the world inevitably throw big money offers at him, then what exactly should be done? According to the logic of posters who continue arguing against investing heavily in premier HS QB's, would you just concede Nickel's recruitment once he blows up since he'll cost too much to try to hang onto?

Or does this nonsensical "strategy" only apply when we can't land a commitment from a better HS QB than Emory Williams or Judd Anderson in back-to-back classes?

 

[cway313]

Since this insane talking point is being rehashed, let me ask this again.

When Luke Nickel gets bumped up to high 4* status and the UGA's of the world inevitably throw big money offers at him, then what exactly should be done? According to the logic of posters who continue arguing against investing heavily in premier HS QB's, would you just concede Nickel's recruitment once he blows up since he'll cost too much to try to hang onto?

Or does this nonsensical "strategy" only apply when we can't land a commitment from a better HS QB than Emory Williams or Judd Anderson in back-to-back classes?

Pivot to 3* Wilbur Morgan from butt**** Kentucky who they had on the same level as Nickel.





edit: Imma take a lap I got 9 months.

 

[DMoney]

Since this insane talking point is being rehashed, let me ask this again.

When Luke Nickel gets bumped up to high 4* status and the UGA's of the world inevitably throw big money offers at him, then what exactly should be done? According to the logic of posters who continue arguing against investing heavily in premier HS QB's, would you just concede Nickel's recruitment once he blows up since he'll cost too much to try to hang onto?

Or does this nonsensical "strategy" only apply when we can't land a commitment from a better HS QB than Emory Williams or Judd Anderson in back-to-back classes?

He should be valued properly, and if the bidding war gets too crazy, get out of there. Same as any other recruit.

My point is that high school QBs are overvalued. The evidence suggests that this is the case. QB is an important position, which is why you want to make big financial decisions with the benefit of college film.

 

[goblin deez nuts]

@DMoney can't these NIL deals come with conditions? I doubt these kids for the '24 class have been paid much of their NIL already right? I know they're not "pay for play" but they have to have some conditions as well to prevent this kind of stuff from happening so much.

No. Can't do pay for play. Wink wink. Putting conditions would remove doubt

 

[cway313]

He should be valued properly, and if the bidding war gets too crazy, get out of there. Same as any other recruit.

My point is that high school QBs are overvalued. The evidence suggests that this is the case. QB is an important position, which is why you want to make important financial decisions with the benefit of college film.

Do you think recruiting over the position each year is the right philosophy? Example trying to find someone from 24' class better than Bain at DE.

 

[01Canes]

He should be valued properly, and if the bidding war gets too crazy, get out of there. Same as any other recruit.

The evidence is overwhelming that this is the correct approach.

I respect consistency with an argument, even if I don't agree. Everyone will have a different definition of when a bidding war gets "too crazy," though. Anyone who believes that investing at all in blue-chip HS QB's is a mistake would balk at even trying to hang onto Nickel when he earns mid-to-high 4* status considering the amount of money that gets thrown around at that level.

I'm skeptical, though, about some other posters echoing this argument keeping the same energy now that we actually have a premier HS QB committed for '25. Ward's performance this year will be massive for whichever QB acquisition strategy is used moving forward.

 

[bobbydigius]

Exhibit A why it's dangerous to pay big money to a high school QB:

Did most of these QBs fetch the same money Ward did as freshmen? You are closer to the situation but it’s hard to fully judge these situations without all the facts available. No doubt a 5 star or high 4 star QB will be expensive but did those schools really break the bank on those guys in just one year?

 

[DMoney]

Do you think recruiting over the position each year is the right philosophy? Example trying to find someone from 24' class better than Bain at DE.

Of course. I want the #1 player at every position. But money is limited.

When we're coming off our second championship in a row, it should be easier. But even then, a school like Nebraska can throw crazy money at an unproven kid.

 

[Bill the Cane]

Not every position is as volatile out of high school as QB, and not every position has as many strong options in the Portal.

Spend money on HS linemen, WRs and CBs, and Portal QBs.

Not every position is as volatile out of high school as QB, and not every position has as many strong options in the Portal.

Spend money on HS linemen, WRs and CBs, and Portal QBs.

Not sold. Giving all the reps and leadership responsibilities to a one-year hot shot out of left field with no loyalty to the program, no development, and no familiarity with the team or system seems more like an act of desperation than a sustainable strategy. Glad we got Ward, hope he kills it, (and I'm especially glad we have a backup), but it was looking grim for awhile and the outcome remains uncertain.

 

[cway313]

Of course. I want the #1 player at every position. But money is limited.

When we're coming off our second championship in a row, it should be easier. But even then, a school like Nebraska can throw crazy money at an unproven kid.

I'll join @01Canes in being skeptical of trying to reinvent the wheel. Even if this offseason was viewed as a success rather than luck. The potential good seems shortsighted unless we are going all out for a championship this year. The rest of the portal additions look more like trying to build on last year and hopefully win 9-10 games.

 

[DMoney]

I'll join @01Canes in being skeptical of trying to reinvent the wheel. Even if this offseason was viewed as a success rather than luck. The potential good seems shortsighted unless we are going all out for a championship this year. The rest of the portal additions look more like trying to build on last year and hopefully win 9-10 games.

It's not reinventing the wheel. It's adjusting to the times. Five of the last six Heisman QBs were transfers.

It's becoming increasingly rare for a Top 10 QB to both: (1) stay with his current team; and (2) develop into an impact player.