forums

Myth Busters: Lack of QB Play

Rellyrell

Rellyrell

Rellywood of mWo
Premium
Joined
Dec 19, 2013
Messages
33,394
In this month’s version of Myth Busters, I’ll be examining the narrative of “The Lack of QB Play.” Again, we're looking to see if Miami's lack of ACC championships are legitimate or if they're simply excuses fans have used to pacify or turn a blind eye to bigger problems.

For QB play, I’m going to focus on our time in the ACC since 2004, focusing on fellow members vs. the nation. Full disclaimer: The QB position is the most important position in football. I’ve debated w/ @DMoney relentlessly regarding our propensity to recruit 3* QB prospects, and/or fringe 4* guys. The data shows the elite teams r led by blue chip QBs whether from the HS or Transfer Portal levels.

Since 2000:
-16/25* Nat’l Champions were led by 4*+ composite rated QBs

-22/25 National Champions were led by QBs that were drafted

-11/25 Nat’l Championship teams were led by 1st Rd QBs

*Composite rankings only go back to 2003, so wasn’t able to locate data for Dorsey, Heupel, & Krenzl, but all 3 were drafted.

Clearly having a top tier QB makes a huge difference for a program, even if said QB is just an efficient game manager that’s surrounded by playmakers on both sides of the ball.

That brings us to our beloved team, The []_[]. Once upon a time we were known as QBU w the likes of Kelly, Kosar, Vinny, Walsh, Gino..****, even Scott Covington got drafted. However, @SCarolina Ibis brought up a very interesting factoid: Since 2000, The Univ of Miami has had 2 QBs drafted (Dorsey, & Kaaya), none of which were in the first 3-rounds.

That, in itself, is an indictment on the program or state of it, which is why it’s going to be a true breath of fresh air to see Ward drafted in the 1st (even if he was a 1-yr rental). NEVERTHELESS, even with the futile production at the QB position, the ? remains, is that the reason we haven’t obtained at least oneACC title?

Let’s examine the evidence:
1. ACC Championships by school since ‘04:

•Clemson - 9
•FSU - 5
•VT - 4
•GT - 1
•WF - 1
•Pitt - 1

2. ACC Championship Game Appearances since ‘05
•Clemson - 10
•FSU - 6
•VT - 6
•GT - 4
•WF - 2
•BC - 2
•UNC - 2
•Pitt - 2
•SMU - 1
•UL - 1
•ND - 1*
•UVA - 1
•Duke - 1
•Miami - 1
*ND was a full time member during the COVID season 2020

3. QBs for ACC Championship Teams:
‘04-present there’s been 15 different QBs that’s led their teams to the ACC crown:

•Randall (‘04 - VT)
•Weatherford (‘05 - FSU)
•Skinner (‘06 -WF)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘08 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Boyd (‘11 - Clemson)
•Manuel (‘12 - FSU)
•Winston (‘13 & ‘14 - FSU)
•Watson (‘15 & ‘16 - Clemson)
•Bryant (‘17 - Clemson)
•Lawrence (‘18, ‘19, & ‘20 - Clemson)
•Pickett (‘21 - Pitt)
•Klubnik (‘22 & ‘24 - Clemson)
•Rodemaker (‘23 - FSU)*
*Took over for the injured Jordan Travis

Out of these 15 QBs:
-6 went undrafted
-2 went in the 6th Rd
-1 went in the 5th Rd
-5 went in the 1st Rd
-1 is TBD

4. In the infant stages of ACC expansion, 5 of the first 6 ACC Champions featured UDFA QBs. Ironically, from 2004-2009, this also coincides w/ our greatest concentration of elite talent drafted to the NFL. Let’s deep dive:

The 6 ACC Champions from ‘04-09 were:
-VT (29 draft picks: 34% were in top 3-Rds)
-FSU (29 draft picks: 52% were in top 3-Rds)
-WF (13 draft picks: 23% were in top 3-Rds)
-GT (16 draft picks: 44% were in top 3-Rds)

Compared to:
-Miami (27 draft picks: 63% were in top 3-Rds)

However, these r just numbers, right? Certainly the QBs that won these titles must’ve put up compelling stats, even if they weren’t drafted, correct? Let’s examine:

-In ‘04 Randall had the following stats:
2,775 total yrds (55.6%) 24 TDs 9 ints

-In ‘05 Weatherford had the following stats:
3,208 yrds (58.8%) 18 TDs 18 ints

-In ‘06 Skinner had the following stats:
2,051 yrds (65.8%) 9 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘07 Glennon had the following stats:
1796 yrds (60.9%) 12 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘08 Taylor had the following stats:
1774 total yrds (57.2%) 9 TDs 7 ints

-In ‘09 Nesbitt had the following stats:
2738 total yrds (46.3%) 28 TDs 5 ints

Comparatively
-In ‘04 Brock Berlin had the following stats :
2,680 yrds (56%) 22 TDS 6 ints

-In ‘05 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
2,403 yrds (58.6%) 19 TDs 10 ints

-In ‘06 Wright got injured, so we ran w/ both him & Freeman:
2,527 combined (57.7%) 16 TDs 15 ints

-In ‘07 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
1,747 yrds (58.5%) 12 TDs 14 ints

-In ‘08 we split between Marve & Harris:
2,488 yrds (57.6%) 26 TDs 20 ints

-In ‘09 Jacory Harris had the following stats:
3,352 yrds (59.6%) 25 TDs 17 ints

Now obviously 2006-2008 were abysmal, but take a look at the winning QBs of the ACC in 2004, 2005, & 2009; now, compare their seasons w/ our QBs stats in said seasons. Also, recall at this time we had the highest concentration of Top 3-Rd picks compared to these programs.

5. OK, let’s forget winning the **** thing; let’s talk about simply playing in the ACCCG. Has it really been due to QB-play that we’ve not been able to secure more than 1 ACCCG appearance? Well, let’s deep dive again:

The Coastal had 15 different QBs play in the CG:
•Vick (‘05 - VT)
•Ball (‘06 - GT)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘07 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Thomas (‘11 - VT)
•Washington (‘12 - GT)
•Boone (‘13 - Duke)
•Thomas (‘14 - GT)
•Williams (‘15 - UNC)
•Evans (‘16 - VT)
•Rosier (‘17 - Good Guys)
•Pickett (‘18 & ‘21)
•Perkins (‘19)
•Maye (‘22)

From this fine list of the who’s who of ACC QBs, what if I were to tell u that only 3 were drafted to play QB (Taylor, Pickett, & Maye)
*Logan Thomas was drafted as a TE

10 of these opposing QBs were UDFAs. Allow me to randomly pick a year…let’s go 2013. In 2013, Duke was led by Anthony Boone. Certainly u remember him, correct? Well if u didn’t, neither did I. Mr Boone had the following stats:
2,474 total yrds (64%) 18 TDs 13 ints

Our QB this season was Stephen Morris; his stats were as follows:
3,028 yrds (57.6%) 21 TDS 12 ints

In fact, Morris had a higher QBR than Boone this season.

Listen, I’m well aware of our QB woes. I’m well aware of how pedestrian, at best, we’ve been at this position of need; but guess what friends, SO WAS THE ENTIRE ACC COASTAL DIVISION. The best QB play since 2011 has come from the former Atlantic Division. I’m not saying w/ our QB situation we should’ve been competing for a crown every season. Frankly, there’s many seasons where we had arguably the worst room in the league.

That’s still not a justification for only playing for one ACC title in 21 yrs, & having 0 crowns. Other programs, other teams from w/in our own former division who didn’t have the same amount of collective talent on their roster not only played for the ACC, but also won it w/ pedestrian QB play.

Again, this data is not to prove that the QB position is not important, b/c it absolutely is; but, rather it’s to show us fans that this has been another myth to gloss over the bigger issue, mismanagement of talent. If other coaches can overcome a lack of NFL caliber players on their roster + inept QB play, then we should’ve, as well, at least once or thrice since 2004.
 

Last edited:
Advertisement
Any sensible fan knows that there isnt just one specific reason for no ACC chips, we've just been a complete ****-show of a program all around/collectively since 2002. Whether its terrible coaching or lack of talent at certain positions we've just never been able to put it all together for some odd reason, even with the best QB in college football smh..maybe this will finally be the year, Go Canes.
 
Alex_Dynamix said:
Any sensible fan knows that there isnt just one specific reason for no ACC chips, we've just been a complete ****-show of a program all around/collectively since 2002. Whether its terrible coaching or lack of talent at certain positions we've just never been able to put it all together for some odd reason, even with the best QB in college football smh..maybe this will finally be the year, Go Canes.
Click to expand...

Key word: Sensible
 
Rellyrell said:
In this month’s version of Myth Busters, I’ll be examining the narrative of “The Lack of QB Play.” Again, we're looking to see if Miami's lack of ACC championships are legitimate or if they're simply excuses fans have used to pacify or turn a blind eye to bigger problems.

For QB play, I’m going to focus on our time in the ACC since 2004, focusing on fellow members vs. the nation. Full disclaimer: The QB position is the most important position in football. I’ve debated w/ @DMoney relentlessly regarding our propensity to recruit 3* QB prospects, and/or fringe 4* guys. The data shows the elite teams r led by blue chip QBs whether from the HS or Transfer Portal levels.

Since 2000:
-16/25* Nat’l Champions were led by 4*+ composite rated QBs

-22/25 National Champions were led by QBs that were drafted

-11/25 Nat’l Championship teams were led by 1st Rd QBs

*Composite rankings only go back to 2003, so wasn’t able to locate data for Dorsey, Heupel, & Krenzl, but all 3 were drafted.

Clearly having a top tier QB makes a huge difference for a program, even if said QB is just an efficient game manager that’s surrounded by playmakers on both sides of the ball.

That brings us to our beloved team, The []_[]. Once upon a time we were known as QBU w the likes of Kelly, Kosar, Vinny, Walsh, Gino..****, even Scott Covington got drafted. However, @SCarolina Ibis brought up a very interesting factoid: Since 2000, The Univ of Miami has had 2 QBs drafted (Dorsey, & Kaaya), none of which were in the first 3-rounds.

That, in itself, is an indictment on the program or state of it, which is why it’s going to be a true breath of fresh air to see Ward drafted in the 1st (even if he was a 1-yr rental). NEVERTHELESS, even with the futile production at the QB position, the ? remains, is that the reason we haven’t obtained at least oneACC title?

Let’s examine the evidence:
1. ACC Championships by school since ‘04:

•Clemson - 9
•FSU - 5
•VT - 4
•GT - 1
•WF - 1
•Pitt - 1

2. ACC Championship Game Appearances since ‘05
•Clemson - 10
•FSU - 6
•VT - 6
•GT - 4
•WF - 2
•BC - 2
•UNC - 2
•Pitt - 2
•SMU - 1
•UL - 1
•ND - 1*
•UVA - 1
•Duke - 1
•Miami - 1
*ND was a full time member during the COVID season 2020

3. QBs for ACC Championship Teams:
‘04-present there’s been 15 different QBs that’s led their teams to the ACC crown:

•Randall (‘04 - VT)
•Weatherford (‘05 - FSU)
•Skinner (‘06 -WF)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘08 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Boyd (‘11 - Clemson)
•Manuel (‘12 - FSU)
•Winston (‘13 & ‘14 - FSU)
•Watson (‘15 & ‘16 - Clemson)
•Bryant (‘17 - Clemson)
•Lawrence (‘18, ‘19, & ‘20 - Clemson)
•Pickett (‘21 - Pitt)
•Klubnik (‘22 & ‘24 - Clemson)
•Rodemaker (‘23 - FSU)*
*Took over for the injured Jordan Travis

Out of these 15 QBs:
-6 went undrafted
-2 went in the 6th Rd
-1 went in the 5th Rd
-5 went in the 1st Rd
-1 is TBD

4. In the infant stages of ACC expansion, 5 of the first 6 ACC Champions featured UDFA QBs. Ironically, from 2004-2009, this also coincides w/ our greatest concentration of elite talent drafted to the NFL. Let’s deep dive:

The 6 ACC Champions from ‘04-09 were:
-VT (29 draft picks: 34% were in top 3-Rds)
-FSU (29 draft picks: 52% were in top 3-Rds)
-WF (13 draft picks: 23% were in top 3-Rds)
-GT (16 draft picks: 44% were in top 3-Rds)

Compared to:
-Miami (27 draft picks: 63% were in top 3-Rds)

However, these r just numbers, right? Certainly the QBs that won these titles must’ve put up compelling stats, even if they weren’t drafted, correct? Let’s examine:

-In ‘04 Randall had the following stats:
2,775 total yrds (55.6%) 24 TDs 9 ints

-In ‘05 Weatherford had the following stats:
3,208 yrds (58.8%) 18 TDs 18 ints

-In ‘06 Skinner had the following stats:
2,051 yrds (65.8%) 9 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘07 Glennon had the following stats:
1796 yrds (60.9%) 12 TDs 5 ints

-In ‘08 Taylor had the following stats:
1774 total yrds (57.2%) 9 TDs 7 ints

-In ‘09 Nesbitt had the following stats:
2738 total yrds (46.3%) 28 TDs 5 ints

Comparatively
-In ‘04 Brock Berlin had the following stats :
2,680 yrds (56%) 22 TDS 6 ints

-In ‘05 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
2,403 yrds (58.6%) 19 TDs 10 ints

-In ‘06 Wright got injured, so we ran w/ both him & Freeman:
2,527 combined (57.7%) 16 TDs 15 ints

-In ‘07 Kyle Wright had the following stats:
1,747 yrds (58.5%) 12 TDs 14 ints

-In ‘08 we split between Marve & Harris:
2,488 yrds (57.6%) 26 TDs 20 ints

-In ‘09 Jacory Harris had the following stats:
3,352 yrds (59.6%) 25 TDs 17 ints

Now obviously 2006-2008 were abysmal, but take a look at the winning QBs of the ACC in 2004, 2005, & 2009; now, compare their seasons w/ our QBs stats in said seasons. Also, recall at this time we had the highest concentration of Top 3-Rd picks compared to these programs.

5. OK, let’s forget winning the **** thing; let’s talk about simply playing in the ACCCG. Has it really been due to QB-play that we’ve not been able to secure more than 1 ACCCG appearance? Well, let’s deep dive again:

The Coastal had 15 different QBs play in the CG:
•Vick (‘05 - VT)
•Ball (‘06 - GT)
•Glennon (‘07 - VT)
•Taylor (‘07 & ‘10 - VT)
•Nesbitt (‘09 - GT)
•Thomas (‘11 - VT)
•Washington (‘12 - GT)
•Boone (‘13 - Duke)
•Thomas (‘14 - GT)
•Williams (‘15 - UNC)
•Evans (‘16 - VT)
•Rosier (‘17 - Good Guys)
•Pickett (‘18 & ‘21)
•Perkins (‘19)
•Maye (‘22)

From this fine list of the who’s who of ACC QBs, what if I were to tell u that only 3 were drafted to play QB (Taylor, Pickett, & Maye)
*Logan Thomas was drafted as a TE

10 of these opposing QBs were UDFAs. Allow me to randomly pick a year…let’s go 2013. In 2013, Duke was led by Anthony Boone. Certainly u remember him, correct? Well if u didn’t, neither did I. Mr Boone had the following stats:
2,474 total yrds (64%) 18 TDs 13 ints

Our QB this season was Stephen Morris; his stats were as follows:
3,028 yrds (57.6%) 21 TDS 12 ints

In fact, Morris had a higher QBR than Boone this season.

Listen, I’m well aware of our QB woes. I’m well aware of how pedestrian, at best, we’ve been at this position of need; but guess what friends, SO WAS THE ENTIRE ACC COASTAL DIVISION. The best QB play since 2011 has come from the former Atlantic Division. I’m not saying w/ our QB situation we should’ve been competing for a crown every season. Frankly, there’s many seasons where we had arguably the worst room in the league.

That’s still not a justification for only playing for one ACC title in 21 yrs, & having 0 crowns. Other programs, other teams from w/in our own former division who didn’t have the same amount of collective talent on their roster not only played for the ACC, but also won it w/ pedestrian QB play.

Again, this data is not to prove that the QB position is not important, b/c it absolutely is; but, rather it’s to show us fans that this has been another myth to gloss over the bigger issue, mismanagement of talent. If other coaches can overcome a lack of NFL caliber players on their roster + inept QB play, then we should’ve, as well, at least one or thrice since 2004.
Click to expand...
Excellent analysis Rell! Coaching has been our biggest issue.
 
Advertisement
Rellyrell said:
Full disclaimer: The QB position is the most important position in football. I’ve debated w/ @DMoney relentlessly regarding our propensity to recruit 3* QB prospects, and/or fringe 4* guys. The data shows the elite teams r led by blue chip QBs whether from the HS or Transfer Portal levels.
Click to expand...
I thought this year put this debate to bed, but let's do it again.

The Top 5 QBs in this draft are from the Portal: Ward, Sanders, Dart, Shough, Ewers. Not some of the top five- ALL of the top five.

Last year, four out of the Top 6 (Williams, Daniels, Penix, Nix) were from the Portal.

If you look at the top QBs in the NFL, they are almost exclusively three-star QBs (Jackson, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Love, Prescott) or Portal players (Daniels, Burrow, Hurts).

To me, the formula seems pretty obvious- save your money on HS QBs and spend big on the Portal.

That doesn't mean grabbing guys like Emory and Judd. I was against both evaluations in the old threads (see here and here). But we should be focusing on boom-or-bust traits that can hit big: multisport athleticism, huge arms, playmaking instincts. If the cheaper HS QB doesn't develop, just move on to the next one and keep working the Portal.

And the Portal isn't just about proven stars like Ward and Beck. We can also grab faded blue-chippers with traits (think Nix, Daniels, Dante Moore) and develop them with a better OL.

The reason championship teams usually have blue-chip QBs is because they're already the blue-blood programs- they sign blue chips everywhere, and their commitments get ratings bumps. That doesn't mean they always sign the best QBs.

By the way, even that point is obsolete in the Portal era. The championship game this year was between two HS three stars who transferred (Will Howard and Riley Leonard). Of the past six champions, four won with transfers ('19 LSU, '21-'22 UGA, '24 OSU) and another was a three-star signee (Mac Jones). The only blue-chipper (JJ McCarthy) barely passed and relied on a tough and physical supporting cast.

Save the money on overpriced HS arms. Bet big on traits in high school and spend big in the Portal.
 
Anyway, not to threadjack- I agree with the main point of the OP @Rellyrell

QB play hasn't been our biggest issue, other than Kyle/Kirby and Richt destroying the room in 2018-2019. Jacory and Morris were above-average relative to the conference, King and Kaaya were good, and Ward was the best player in the nation.
 
DMoney said:
I thought this year put this debate to bed, but let's do it again.

The Top 5 QBs in this draft are from the Portal: Ward, Sanders, Dart, Shough, Ewers. Not some of the top five- ALL of the top five.

Last year, four out of the Top 6 (Williams, Daniels, Penix, Nix) were from the Portal.

If you look at the top QBs in the NFL, they are almost exclusively three-star QBs (Jackson, Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Love, Prescott) or Portal players (Daniels, Burrow, Hurts).

To me, the formula seems pretty obvious- save your money on HS QBs and spend big on the Portal.

That doesn't mean grabbing guys like Emory and Judd. I was against both evaluations in the old threads (see here and here). But we should be focusing on boom-or-bust traits that can hit big- multisport athleticism, huge arms, playmaking instincts. If the cheaper HS QB doesn't develop, just move on to the next one and keep working the Portal.

And the Portal isn't just about proven stars like Ward and Beck- we can also grab faded blue-chippers with traits (think Nix, Daniels, Dante Moore) and develop them with a better OL.

The reason championship teams usually have blue-chip QBs is because they are already the blue-blood programs- they sign blue chips everywhere, and their commitments get ratings bumps. That doesn't mean always they sign the best QBs.

And while we're talking championships, the two QBs in this year's championship game (Will Howard and Riley Leonard) were both HS three stars who transferred.

Save the money on overpriced HS arms. Bet big on traits in high school and spend big in the Portal.
Click to expand...

You make some solid points especially with the NFL QBs reference… just like any other sport reps matter. All those guys you pointed out had the reigns turned over to them early. They got valuable experience as freshman and sophomores and by the end of their college days they were doing numbers.

So to your point about the portal… if you’re taking a 3* who’s been a starter for 2-2 1/2 years and 4* who has sat and waited his turn that 3* is going to be further ahead 9 times out of 10. I think more HS QBs will see that in the coming years and make their college choice based on them being the guy and getting the keys to the Porsche out the gate. They’ll see that in 3 years if they are really “like that” they’ll have all the leverage.
 
Advertisement
FuriousStyles said:
You make some solid points especially with the NFL QBs reference… just like any other sport reps matter. All those guys you pointed out had the reigns turned over to them early. They got valuable experience as freshman and sophomores and by the end of their college days they were doing numbers.

So to your point about the portal… if you’re taking a 3* who’s been a starter for 2-2 1/2 years and 4* who has sat and waited his turn that 3* is going to be further ahead 9 times out of 10. I think more HS QBs will see that in the coming years and make their college choice based on them being the guy and getting the keys to the Porsche out the gate. They’ll see that in 3 years if they are really “like that” they’ll have all the leverage.
Click to expand...
Experience is huge. Daniels and Nix were two of the most experienced players in CFB history (because of the Covid year) and they both thrived in the NFL right away.

That's why I'm bullish on Cam Ward in the NFL (64 college starts) and optimistic about Carson Beck in Year 6 of his college career.
 
D9B419BD-E3F0-4A8F-A670-D186F085E88E.png
 
I don't mind letting a player cut his teeth somewhere else and accrue losses for that team while gaining valuable experience. If they have 2 years left of eligibility that's a bonus, but your money is going towards a proven commodity. If we pay 5 star QB's premium dollar, we better be prepared to take the lumps that come with it early on. And then, who's to say they don't transfer out just as they're hitting stride.

There's only a handful of teams that can say their QB situation is better than Miami's in the past 2 years. I like that, give me more of that.
 
Advertisement
We’ve had some pretty decent quarterbacks recently. Unfortunately they’ve almost always coincided with terrible defenses. Morris and Kaaya, while not superstars, were more than good enough to win a crappy ACC. They just played here while Al Golden and Mark D’Onofrio were intentionally turning our defense into garbage. When Richt brought in Manny Diaz, our defense got better but Kaaya left early and we had absolutely nothing. Rosier’s 2017 was serviceable but still below average by modern quarterback standards. By the time Rhett Lashlee and D’Eriq King got here, our talent in defense had fallen off so hard we needed to outscore everyone to win. It continued with Van Dyke who became more and more erratic the longer he was here and culminated with Cam Ward having the best year ever for a Miami quarterback only to watch the defense give up leads and generally struggle to stop any offense with a pulse.
 
DMoney said:
Experience is huge. Daniels and Nix were two of the most experienced players in CFB history (because of the Covid year) and they both thrived in the NFL right away.

That's why I'm bullish on Cam Ward in the NFL (64 college starts) and optimistic about Carson Beck in Year 6 of his college career.
Click to expand...
What about the impact recruiting the Emory's and Judd's have on WR recruiting?
 
Advertisement
Not a surprise that most championship teams are littered with 4 & 5 star QBs. Would be shocked if those same teams don’t have elite talent throughout the roster. It’s not just the QB. Our QB recruiting hasn’t been championship caliber, but can say pretty much the same about overall recruiting. Mario finally gives us hope.
 
cway313 said:
What about the impact recruiting the Emory's and Judd's have on WR recruiting?
Click to expand...

And how WR recruiting effects or could effect CB recruiting… 5*s want to play with 5*s.

I listened to two interviews recently with Derek Stingley Jr and PS2 and both said the same thing….

Going against Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase and Terrance Marshall for Stingley… Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Waddle and DeVonte Smith for PS2 EVERYDAY made them better corners. Every rep was important, no light days, no light reps everybody is good. It makes you better.
 
Advertisement
Back
Top