BoxingRobes
Junior
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2013
- Messages
- 11,247
re: The Recruiting Services --Again, we can debate this thing in circles, but...
If the problem was ONLY "the recruiting services" and their "misevaluations", then you would see the brilliant coaches at Alabama and Clemson and Ohio State uncovering all these 3-star diamonds in the rough, and proving to these "recruiting services" that they don't know ****e. But that ALSO never happens.
Yes, there will always be some incorrect 5-star evals. And incorrect 3-star evals. But the issue is NOT "everyone at the recruiting services are idiots". The REALITY is that there should be a lot more writers/scouts/eyeballs in these heavily populated areas of Florida, Texas, and California. At the end of the day, when you put all the Rivals guys or 247 guys in one room, everyone makes their arguments based on their own observations. Thus, if you have 3 guys who cover SoFla, and 3 guys who cover Arkansas, there number of voices from Arkansas is "equal" to the number of voices advocating for SoFla kids, regardless of the fact that there is MUCH MORE talent in SoFla than Arkansas.
I am not denying that the recruiting services have their limitations. I just don't think it is as binary as you might think. It's not "misevaluation", so much as it is a disproportionate representation "in the room where it happens". Ivins can't possibly get 100 Florida kids on the Top 247, even if it is accurate and warranted.
And college coaches have much larger and much more highly-skilled staffs who can do those evaluations. Thus, if Rivals/247 were WILDLY off in their evaluations, you would quickly see the guys making multi-millions (the head coaches) dispensing with the craptastic Rivals/247 rankings and going with their own rankings. This is why 32 NFL teams have their own draft boards. Everyone has to do their own work. But the fact that there is significant overlap between the Rivals/247 rankings and the signing classes themselves is an indication that Rivals/247 gets it MOSTLY correct.
Finally, look, I'm not going to knock your scouting skills. But you made a comparison to a kid who did "big things" at MARSHALL. So allow me to do my Allen Iverson voice. MARSHALL. My god, you could go out and find a 2 or 3 star kid in Dade, and then predict he is going to do BIG THINGS at Oberlin or Lehigh, and you'd probably be correct. The reality is, you predicted that TuTu would excel at FAU, which is not exactly an earth-shattering prediction (even when it comes true). The kid was one of the 750 best players in the Class of 2018. Had he gone to FAU, he would have been one of the best players on the field for both teams in nearly every game. Now, I have no idea if you would have predicted the same greatness for TuTu at LOUISVILLE, but I would point out that you predicted "special teams" as an FAU freshman. Meanwhile, TuTu did very well at Louisville as a WR as a freshman, so he EXCEEDED your predictions. And then he had an amazing sophomore season that I don't think ANYONE would have predicted.
Again, I ask a very simple question. I'm not talking about a "******* on a message board" predicting big things for a 305 kid going to play in the 561. I'm asking WHAT ASSESSMENT do you think that a coach coulda/woulda/shoulda made, on which he would stake his own six-figure salary, that would justify him taking a low 3-star, position-changing kid standing 5'8" and weighing 150 pounds (notwithstanding your bold predictions on TuTu hitting the weight room)? And not just the MIAMI coaches, but ALL of the coaches (except for Louisville). This is not a knock against you, but I have seen NOBODY (particularly smack-talking Coach Macho) acknowledge that these college coaches have very little in-person evaluation time. Not to mention the no-patience/win-now world isn't exactly set up to wait around for a kid to change positions in college for the very first time.
That's all. I've never told people "you are insane to have been a TuTu Atwell fan when he was in high school". I've only said that it is nuts to put all of the blame in the world on "Miami coaches" who had very little EVIDENCE to project Atwell's position change, while also having plenty of higher-rated, more-experienced, and larger WR candidates on the board.
This is the real world. If you're going to take a chance on TuTu Atwell at Miami in 2018, someone else in our recruiting class has to go. And it's easy to identify those kids 2 years later. It's a lot harder to do on Signing Day.
Truth.
They piggyback offers. This isn't some revelation or anything, and I know you know this...so Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia wouldn't really be uncovering a slew of 3-stars anyway, because most of their players are getting that bump. That isn't to say they don't uncover 3-stars...Alabama has had players like Kareem Jackson, Josh Jacobs, etc. go in Round 1 and they were 3-star players.
Moving on to Tutu Atwell specifically...he wasn't some .80 grade 3-star player...he was a mid-3 star player (and probably would have been higher if Miami would have taken his commit...because, as I stated earlier, the services basically piggyback offers). I compared him to Tommy Shuler before his senior year...FWIW - Tommy Shuler...yeah, its Marshall, but he's one of the best WRs to ever play there, and that includes Randy Moss. Finished his career the all-time leader in receptions and Top 5 in both yards and touchdowns. That's a pretty good collegiate comparison for a fellow midget. Onto the collegiate side...again, he wasn't some unknown nobody. Was a solid mid-3 star player...in that very class, we took 4 guys that rated below him. In the same range of grade, we took Greg Rousseau in the same class. I don't think its a stretch for a coach, whether it be the head coach (who was actually recruiting him) or the position coach (who we all know was horrendous at his job) to suggest - or even pound the table - taking a mid-3 star wide receiver. Its not as much of a stretch as you're stating, IMO. We take guys at his level every year. Some years, many.
Its easy to fall back on "higher rated player"...but your eyetest stinks if your higher rated player stinks after four seasons and the guy you passed on was immediately good in the same conference. "But, he was higher rated" can not be the fallback excuse every time. Its lazy. And you know these dudes that work at 247, Rivals, etc. couldn't be less qualified to evaluate actual players. You or I could assemble recruiting classes based off rankings, that doesn't mean you or I would be good at our jobs. It took Tutu Atwell like 15 college games to do what Mark Pope has done in his entire competitive football life as a wide receiver. Everyone got it wrong, but Miami shouldn't be absolved along with everyone else...this is their home turf, they are being paid to know this ****, IMO. And we can nitpick Tutu Atwell, but you can extend the discussion to Schwartz or Moore in the same class. Those are three local guys that are better than every.single.one of the WRs we took that year. That's malpractice and negligence and to make it worse, I don't think its unfair to say that Atwell was a better wide receiver than every wide receiver Miami took before he even took a snap...he was. A part of your job has to be projecting a players skill set and Miami (and many others) didn't with Tutu Atwell, but they should have.