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Miami - Over 8.5

rayray said:
the idea that UM is "due" for 9 wins is why vegas makes billions of dollars off random fools

i don't think betting miami over 8.5 would be a bad bet but if someone held a gun to my head i'd say 8 wins. aside from depth issues all over the place, i'd like to see this program go through one season without dropping multiple winnable games before i just blindly say that it's gonna happen.

10 wins or better seems out of the question for me, 8 or 9 wins seems like an acceptable sweet spot considering the program's direction.
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Lets be clear, I used that logic on a response to someone that talked about the last 8 years.

Got it?
 
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zellerdog said:
fastcane said:
I'll be leaving for Vegas in a few days, might not leave till next Aug. I killed it in baseball this year, met a guy in Vegas earlier in the year that taught me a great system. Way to many variables to
tie up money on an over and under for a season. Two or 3 key players go down for any team and it changes everything.
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yeah those system guys have vegas clocked.
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The system guys have by far the greatest opportunity to beat the house. Subjective decisions are a steady drain and it leads to second guessing. That's what Las Vegas wants, for bettors to be thinking and reacting all the time. When I was a regular on a Las Vegas sports handicapping program in the '80s and '90s the chief oddsmaker for the state's sportsbooks was also on the program in the early years. He never cared about random picks. But when someone mentioned a logical system he paid attention. Once I made the mistake of blurting one out. He grabbed his pen and notepad and jotted it down, while arrogantly saying, "Thanks...I'll make sure you never make any money on that again."

Anyway, at 5Dimes they offer Miami win props at every half digit from 7.5 to 9.5. Very difficult to bet over on props like that. The sharp guys generally play 80% unders and 20% overs. So many variables can help an under, like injuries and suspensions and sheer parity. Plus the numbers are tilted toward the over since that's what the public plays. Since you're tying up money for several months a significant edge is needed and it's seldom attached to overs. I don't mean to discourage it in this case, merely to say to be careful. I did play one over this year, the Dolphins at over 6.5 when Cantor Gaming threw up that number several months ago. The number is now 8. Cantor is a new outfit to Las Vegas and prone to mistakes.
 
Had to bring this post back.. After reading through it.. A lot of people who commented in this thread expected us to be anywhere at 10-2 or 8-4..we all hoped for the acccg and a bowl win.. We are still staring at a 10 win season.. Why are so many fans so down when this was the prediction for the team all summer.. A ten win season and a step back into relevancy
 
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Why are so many fans down? Morris happened, he has to become a different person to lead us to a ten win season. Unlikely.
 
Okay Morris hasn't played up to our expectation. He's still in position to win these last two games. All I'm saying is that 9-3 and a bowl game seems to be what many people predicted and now that it's a possibility people are going crazy.
 
The idiotic bravdo of our fanbase is a sight to behold. Anyone thinking we were getting through this year with one or 2 loses is a blind homer.

Now of course, its mass hysteria.
 
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The []_[];1684405 said:
Had to bring this post back.. After reading through it.. A lot of people who commented in this thread expected us to be anywhere at 10-2 or 8-4..we all hoped for the acccg and a bowl win.. We are still staring at a 10 win season.. Why are so many fans so down when this was the prediction for the team all summer.. A ten win season and a step back into relevancy
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Bet no one had *** kickings at the hands of VT and even more so Duke when they made their predictions. Season went from a step in the right direction to a major failure in 2 weeks.
 
moshated305 said:
The []_[];1684405 said:
Had to bring this post back.. After reading through it.. A lot of people who commented in this thread expected us to be anywhere at 10-2 or 8-4..we all hoped for the acccg and a bowl win.. We are still staring at a 10 win season.. Why are so many fans so down when this was the prediction for the team all summer.. A ten win season and a step back into relevancy
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Bet no one had *** kickings at the hands of VT and even more so Duke when they made their predictions. Season went from a step in the right direction to a major failure in 2 weeks.
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These things happen when you're building a program..don't act like you expected to blow out vt and yeah that duke game was tough to watch.
We are building the program and a 9-4 season or a 10-3 season would have me feeling confident about the next few years.
 
The []_[];1684445 said:
Okay Morris hasn't played up to our expectation. He's still in position to win these last two games. All I'm saying is that 9-3 and a bowl game seems to be what many people predicted and now that it's a possibility people are going crazy.
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I was in the 8 or 9 win camp, but that was before I saw how terrible some of the teams are this year. Also, it's not our record that bothers me as much as how we have looked. If we had the same record right now, but lost a defensive struggle to VT and our other loss was to a team like GT (or at least didnt get blown out by Duke), things wouldn't be as bad. There are good and bad 7-3 teams and we certainly aren't a good one at the moment.
 
Shogungts said:
The []_[];1684445 said:
Okay Morris hasn't played up to our expectation. He's still in position to win these last two games. All I'm saying is that 9-3 and a bowl game seems to be what many people predicted and now that it's a possibility people are going crazy.
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I was in the 8 or 9 win camp, but that was before I saw how terrible some of the teams are this year. Also, it's not our record that bothers me as much as how we have looked. If we had the same record right now, but lost a defensive struggle to VT and our other loss was to a team like GT (or at least didnt get blown out by Duke), things wouldn't be as bad. There are good and bad 7-3 teams and we certainly aren't a good one at the moment.
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Duke is in the Top 25, GT is unranked. I will take the loss to Duke over GT everyone needs to stop thinking of this terms of name
 
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Shogungts said:
The []_[];1684445 said:
Okay Morris hasn't played up to our expectation. He's still in position to win these last two games. All I'm saying is that 9-3 and a bowl game seems to be what many people predicted and now that it's a possibility people are going crazy.
Click to expand...

I was in the 8 or 9 win camp, but that was before I saw how terrible some of the teams are this year. Also, it's not our record that bothers me as much as how we have looked. If we had the same record right now, but lost a defensive struggle to VT and our other loss was to a team like GT (or at least didnt get blown out by Duke), things wouldn't be as bad. There are good and bad 7-3 teams and we certainly aren't a good one at the moment.
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I agree with that. It has been disappointing.
 
''Way to many variables to tie up money on an over and under for a season. Two or 3 key players go down for any team and it changes everything.''

This is what I wrote earlier on this thread, pretty much dead on! Our fastest receiver went down, it killed our long, long game. Then the best player on the team, now it's up in the air.
 
Do I ever agree with this!

'' everyone needs to stop thinking of this terms of name''
 
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Chrisarg72 said:
Shogungts said:
The []_[];1684445 said:
Okay Morris hasn't played up to our expectation. He's still in position to win these last two games. All I'm saying is that 9-3 and a bowl game seems to be what many people predicted and now that it's a possibility people are going crazy.
Click to expand...

I was in the 8 or 9 win camp, but that was before I saw how terrible some of the teams are this year. Also, it's not our record that bothers me as much as how we have looked. If we had the same record right now, but lost a defensive struggle to VT and our other loss was to a team like GT (or at least didnt get blown out by Duke), things wouldn't be as bad. There are good and bad 7-3 teams and we certainly aren't a good one at the moment.
Click to expand...

Duke is in the Top 25, GT is unranked. I will take the loss to Duke over GT everyone needs to stop thinking of this terms of name
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Duke lost to GT and badly. Besides us, Duke beat the following teams: North Carolina Central, Memphis, Troy, Navy, NC State, UVA and VT. The only team on that list that is slightly decent is VT and they aren't exactly having a stellar year. GT isn't a powerhouse either, but there is at least the excuse of their gimmick offense.

But either way, losing by more than 2 TDs to either of those teams is unacceptable.
 
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