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Miami opens +1 @ Louisville

OldhamA said:
I mean do you trust this team at the moment?

We came back from 25 behind on the road to beat Cal and were an awful officiating call away from losing to VT at home. Now they're both pretty solid teams, but a Top 10 team should be putting them away quite easily.

We're simply giving up too many big plays for me to be confident about this Louisville game, even though Ward and co will definitely keep you in it.
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I trust this team. Very much. Cam Ward could very literally be QB1 and R1P1 should this season bank right for us. I believe he can win us any game. He's Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield to me. He's our version of that.

The situationals in both of those games end in an L for most teams in the nation. Only Miami and Indiana have won from the B1G and ACC traveling 2+ time zones at the moment. Tons of home favorites lose on Friday nights. Its a wacky short week. Yeah, those games are close. Cam Ward won us those games. I'm unsure if any QB in the nation besides Cam Ward is able to do that, respectfully to all of them. If we trot out some traditional Miami QBs of the past 20 years, we are getting our blocks knocked off in those games in embarrassing fashion.

We got a dawg right now. Our defense isn't great. But it'll get stops. Cal and VaTech stayed on or ahead of schedule a lot with their run game and took advantage of sloppy play (and our bonehead penalties). Once we started getting to them and off schedule, it was a wrap though. Our DL is good enough to eventually to get there over four quarters and you have to contend with maybe the best offense in college football that has shown they are never out of it and can go the distance with you. You gotta play all 4 quarters against Miami now.

Tired makes cowards of us all.
 

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BoxingRobes said:
I trust this team. Very much. Cam Ward could very literally be QB1 and R1P1 should this season bank right for us. I believe he can win us any game. He's Jayden Daniels or Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield to me. He's our version of that.

The situationals in both of those games end in an L for most teams in the nation. Only Miami and Indiana have won from the B1G and ACC traveling 2+ time zones at the moment. Tons of home favorites lose on Friday nights. Its a wacky short week. Yeah, those games are close. Cam Ward won us those games. I'm unsure if any QB in the nation besides Cam Ward is able to do that, respectfully to all of them. If we trot out some traditional Miami QBs of the past 20 years, we are getting our blocks knocked off in those games in embarrassing fashion.

We got a dawg right now. Our defense isn't great. But it'll get stops. Cal and VaTech stayed on or ahead of schedule a lot with their run game and took advantage of sloppy play (and our bonehead penalties). Once we started getting to them and off schedule, it was a wrap though. Our DL is good enough to eventually to get there over four quarters and you have to contend with maybe the best offense in college football that has shown they are never out of it and can go the distance with you. You gotta play all 4 quarters against Miami now.

Tired makes cowards of us all.
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Didn't VT travel to Stanford and win on Saturday too?
 
We’re -192 on the look ahead
 

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We opened -5.5 and within 25 min it got slammed to -3.5, juice on Louisville side. Big money, down to -154 ML
 
that makes more sense, would have made zero sense to be an underdog in any of our remaining games unless we drop a few
 
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WeBallinBoyz said:
We opened -5.5 and within 25 min it got slammed to -3.5, juice on Louisville side. Big money, down to -154 ML
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BuT iT dOeSn'T mAtTeR iF tHe LiNe MoVeS.

Will be very interesting to see what it opens after this week's games with no limits and where it moves. I'd rather see it "open" -5.5 today and move down to -3.5 in low limit wagering then get bet back up to -4 just before kickoff than see it open -5.5 next week and close at -4.5, but that's just me.

"Regarding comparable spreads, the direction and timing of the line move is more important than the line itself." - Confucius
 
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Poptimus said:
BuT iT dOeSn'T mAtTeR iF tHe LiNe MoVeS.

Will be very interesting to see what it opens after this week's games with no limits and where it moves. I'd rather see it "open" -5.5 today and move down to -3.5 in low limit wagering then get bet back up to -4 just before kickoff than see it open -5.5 next week and close at -4.5, but that's just me.

"Regarding comparable spreads, the direction and timing of the line move is more important than the line itself." - Confucius
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Absolutely the right way to think here.

Limits are small now, so the slightest bit of money (albeit still somewhat big in retrospect) will move lines. 2 points = pretty significant action still, but not ridiculously large by any means.

The more movement the closer to game time, the more money coming in. I called -3.5 to -4.5 a few days ago in this thread, I still hold firm there provided we see Louisville take care of business this week.

More likely to end up at a 3 than a 6, however. That could very well change with UVA this weekend. Bad spot for the Cardinals, we’ve been taking in pro UVA money all week.

Similarly to us, UF opened +1.5 against UK and pro UK money came in; blasted to +3.5. That was quickly reversed and has since settled to 2.5, indicating that this line probably stays within 3 with a hard wall at 3 (contingent on how the Gators look against Tenn). Gators have taken pro money all week as well vs. the Volunteers.
 
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What does FanDuel take this far out? $500? Maybe $1000?

These lines are put out to help them sharpen up their own lines. Take a bet from a respected account, move the line. Rinse and repeat a few times til you get the line right.

As others have said, the real money will be more telling. The Thursday before the game is when limits go way up, so that’s what we are waiting to see.
 
Poptimus said:
BuT iT dOeSn'T mAtTeR iF tHe LiNe MoVeS.

Will be very interesting to see what it opens after this week's games with no limits and where it moves. I'd rather see it "open" -5.5 today and move down to -3.5 in low limit wagering then get bet back up to -4 just before kickoff than see it open -5.5 next week and close at -4.5, but that's just me.

"Regarding comparable spreads, the direction and timing of the line move is more important than the line itself." - Confucius
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What heavy player is taking that plunge prior to Loserville playing this weekend?
 
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ajkreider said:
What heavy player is taking that plunge prior to Loserville playing this weekend?
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Nobody because you can’t bet these look ahead lines with any real size. Could even be an early head fake because the syndicates that move lines know they can move the number when the limits are low. If they really like Miami, what better way than to bet Louisville for, say, $1k now and move the line only to come back later and bet $50k on Miami albeit at a better line?
 
scrantoncane said:
What does FanDuel take this far out? $500? Maybe $1000?

These lines are put out to help them sharpen up their own lines. Take a bet from a respected account, move the line. Rinse and repeat a few times til you get the line right.

As others have said, the real money will be more telling. The Thursday before the game is when limits go way up, so that’s what we are waiting to see.
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Couple K at least I’d imagine. Probably 10-20 from VIP’s, 3-5 from average bettors, no more than 1-2 from sharps.
 
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