forums

Miami Flo's Predictions

DMoney said:
I've seen it before. And while I respect you and your presentation, it's outdated info that's all over the place.

Look at the Portal-era examples on your list. Stetson Bennett is not a "recruited kid." He's a walk-on who went to JUCO and transferred back. Mac Jones is a three-star. We know Joe Burrow's story as a transfer.

You used JJ McCarthy as an example. The other team in the title game (Washington) was carried by a transfer. Texas started a transfer. Jalen Milroe was not a big money, Top 10 QB. The Heisman was a transfer. The previous year's Heisman was a transfer. Eight of the 11 drafted kids were transfers.

Spend money on an NFL prospect in the Portal. Recruit kids from high school with upside who don't cost a lot. It can be a mid-4 star like Carson Beck or a three-star like Brady Cook. If a five-star wants to take less money to come to your school, great. But don't get in a bidding war for a lottery ticket.
Click to expand...

Lol; my data is out dated, YET I just said the top programs r doing both. Lol.

Since I’ve seen both replies, I’ll keep it simple. U’re moving the goal post. A top QB is a Blue Chip QB, not a top 10 QB. Some “Top 10” QBs are not even all 5*’s depending on the recruiting. The original point going back to the Judd thread was MIAMI CANNOT CONTINUE TO SIMPLY RECRUIT NON-BLUE CHIP PRODUCTS & RELY UPON THE PORTAL ONLY.

I’m capitalizing & bolding that part strictly for emphasis. I’ve maintained that in the era of BCS, CFP the top teams have been led by Blue Chip QBs. Never once did I say top 10, I’ve always maintained Blue Chip (4*+). I’ve also stated that top programs in the dawn of the Portal are doing BOTH, NOT EITHER OR.

I haven’t seen anyone critical of taking a transfer QB vs. putting all ur eggs in the transfer basket. However, there’s a very specific reason y I highlighted the HCs who have taken said transfers for this experiment; they ALL were winning, offensive minded coaches. Why weren’t Rattler & Leary successful? Were they not transfers, as well?

But, let me really hone on ur premise, to allocate funds not on top HS QBs, but transfers. OK, the portal has been open since 2019, while u’re bringing up Williams, Penix, etc. for the 2024 draft, what about the following:

Go look at the QB Portal Classes from 2019-2023, & u tell me who “wowed” at their new school?

U’re taking a small % of success stories, QBs who went to play for SUCCESSFUL HCs, & u’re like “Voila guys, see? We don’t need to allocate funds to recruit top HS QB!”

There’s not a single successful program in America doing this. They are doing BOTH. I’m not sure why that’s hard to grasp. It would seem to me that maybe after 20 yrs of futility, we would stop trying to do things the opposite of what other programs who r winning r doing.
 
Advertisement
TriStarCane said:
Missing the part of why the draft is an indicator of success? Do the numbers change when you look at winning? Isn’t that the standard? Miami fans particularly have a hardon for NFL drafted players. I’ll take a QB that wins and distributes over a first round pick. Just curious
Click to expand...
Here's last year's final Top 10:

1. Michigan- #5 QB
2. Washington- Transfer
3. Texas- Transfer
4. Georgia- #19 QB
5. Alabama- #13 QB
6. Oregon- Transfer
7. FSU- Transfer
8. Missouri- #53 QB
9. Ole Miss- Transfer
10. Ohio State- #6 QB, pushed out and replaced in Portal
 
DMoney said:
Here's last year's final Top 10:

1. Michigan- #5 QB
2. Washington- Transfer
3. Texas- Transfer
4. Georgia- #19 QB
5. Alabama- #13 QB
6. Oregon- Transfer
7. FSU- Transfer
8. Missouri- #53 QB
9. Ole Miss- Transfer
10. Ohio State- #6 QB, pushed out and replaced in Portal
Click to expand...
1. 3 year starter
2. 2 year starter + 13 starts at IU
3. 2 year starter
4. 1st year starter
5. 1st year starter
6. 2 year starter + 3 years at Auburn
7. 3 year starter
8. 2 year starter
9. 2 year starter
10. 1 year starter

Premise might be right but I think there are some other data points to consider. Not as black and white to me
 
Rellyrell said:
However, there’s a very specific reason y I highlighted the HCs who have taken said transfers for this experiment; they ALL were winning, offensive minded coaches. Why weren’t Rattler & Leary successful? Were they not transfers, as well?
Click to expand...
Rattler wasn't successful because his team wasn't very good. Burrow was extremely successful, under a "caveman" defensive head coach, because he had great players around him and a good co-OC.

The old narrative was that Mario wouldn't be able to land elite transfers because he's not an offensive guru. Now he's landed Cam Ward. We are all eager to see how that plays out.

And I'm not moving the goalposts on Top 10 v. lower four star. The discussion has always been about resource allocation. We all know the top guys are the ones making obscene money. That's why I'm focusing on them.

The truth is that I think recruiting rankings are getting better at QB. Of those eight transfers that got drafted, most of them were big recruits. I think a big part of the strategy going forward is landing some of those guys as multiyear transfers once things go South at the first spot.
 
Advertisement
cway313 said:
View attachment 288280
Still YOUR TURN.
Click to expand...
1714501152676.png

1714501218810.png
 
Rellyrell said:
Lol; my data is out dated, YET I just said the top programs r doing both. Lol.

Since I’ve seen both replies, I’ll keep it simple. U’re moving the goal post. A top QB is a Blue Chip QB, not a top 10 QB. Some “Top 10” QBs are not even all 5*’s depending on the recruiting. The original point going back to the Judd thread was MIAMI CANNOT CONTINUE TO SIMPLY RECRUIT NON-BLUE CHIP PRODUCTS & RELY UPON THE PORTAL ONLY.

I’m capitalizing & bolding that part strictly for emphasis. I’ve maintained that in the era of BCS, CFP the top teams have been led by Blue Chip QBs. Never once did I say top 10, I’ve always maintained Blue Chip (4*+). I’ve also stated that top programs in the dawn of the Portal are doing BOTH, NOT EITHER OR.

I haven’t seen anyone critical of taking a transfer QB vs. putting all ur eggs in the transfer basket. However, there’s a very specific reason y I highlighted the HCs who have taken said transfers for this experiment; they ALL were winning, offensive minded coaches. Why weren’t Rattler & Leary successful? Were they not transfers, as well?

But, let me really hone on ur premise, to allocate funds not on top HS QBs, but transfers. OK, the portal has been open since 2019, while u’re bringing up Williams, Penix, etc. for the 2024 draft, what about the following:

Go look at the QB Portal Classes from 2019-2023, & u tell me who “wowed” at their new school?

U’re taking a small % of success stories, QBs who went to play for SUCCESSFUL HCs, & u’re like “Voila guys, see? We don’t need to allocate funds to recruit top HS QB!”

There’s not a single successful program in America doing this. They are doing BOTH. I’m not sure why that’s hard to grasp. It would seem to me that maybe after 20 yrs of futility, we would stop trying to do things the opposite of what other programs who r winning r doing.
Click to expand...
@CreativeCane ^ see above as to the actual debate.
 
DMoney said:
Rattler wasn't successful because his team wasn't very good. Burrow was extremely successful, under a "caveman" defensive head coach, because he had great players around him and a good co-OC.

The old narrative was that Mario wouldn't be able to land elite transfers because he's not an offensive guru. Now he's landed Cam Ward. We are all eager to see how that plays out.

And I'm not moving the goalposts on Top 10 v. lower four star. The discussion has always been about resource allocation. And we all know the top guys are the ones making obscene money. That's why I'm focusing on them.

The truth is that I think recruiting rankings are getting better at QB. Of those eight transfers that got drafted, most of them were big recruits. I think a big part of the strategy going forward is landing some of those guys as multiyear transfers once things go South at the first spot.
Click to expand...

No, Rattler wasn’t successful b/c his HC sucked. Lol

And yes, I agree w/ ur strategy.
 
TriStarCane said:
1. 3 year starter
2. 2 year starter + 13 starts at IU
3. 2 year starter
4. 1st year starter
5. 1st year starter
6. 2 year starter + 3 years at Auburn
7. 3 year starter
8. 2 year starter
9. 2 year starter
10. 1 year starter

Premise might be right but I think there are some other data points to consider. Not as black and white to me
Click to expand...
That's an obvious data point though. Of course you pursue the guys who have started games and had success at their previous school and the higher emphasis and $ is going to be placed on proven guys with multiple years of eligibility that can be a long term solution versus the stop gap 1 year rental, regardless of talent level.

You don't just take their HS rankings and see them in the portal and recreate recruiting them out of HS. Not the point of the portal which is find proven guys and don't waste time and money on ratings. The only time I can remember that working thus far is Ewers - no production and took him out of the portal based on a star rating. TBD on Dante Moore, Rashada, and Chiles.
 
Advertisement
TriStarCane said:
1. 3 year starter
2. 2 year starter + 13 starts at IU
3. 2 year starter
4. 1st year starter
5. 1st year starter
6. 2 year starter + 3 years at Auburn
7. 3 year starter
8. 2 year starter
9. 2 year starter
10. 1 year starter

I think there are some other data points to consider
Click to expand...

JayCane20 said:
That's an obvious data point though. Of course you pursue the guys who have started games and had success at their previous school and the higher emphasis and $ is going to be placed on proven guys with multiple years of eligibility that can be a long term solution versus the stop gap 1 year rental, regardless of talent level.

You don't just take their HS rankings and see them in the portal and recreate recruiting them out of HS. Not the point of the portal which is find proven guys and don't waste time and money on ratings. The only time I can remember that working thus far is Ewers - no production and took him out of the portal based on a star rating. TBD on Dante Moore, Rashada, and Chiles.
Click to expand...
Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be included in the discussion though. It also matter who you spend your money on. And I also want to add I think the data set is too limited at this point but that’s not going to stop the debate lol
 
Rellyrell said:
@DMoney



U HAVE to stop doing this. U’re leaving out extremely important, contextual details thus invalidating ur premises.

Let’s look at the NFL draft argument, u made.

Here’s the context of the transfer QBs that got drafted:

1. Caleb Williams - 5* HS QB, 5* Transfer.
Why? His coach & primary recruiter left Oklahoma to USC. Williams followed said coach to USC

2. Jaden Daniels - 4* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? ASU was in the cross hairs of the NCAA for recruiting violations. ASU lost 17 players due to the controversy, including his primary recruiter, Antonio Pierce, who got fired.

3. Michael Penix - 3* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After tearing his ACL once again, IU moved on. Washington’s DeBoer took a chance & it paid off. IU that same yr went after 4* transfer Bazelak who was a bust

4. Bo Nix - 5* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? B/c of Harsin. Nix, along w/ 20 players transferred out of AU after 1 yr under Harsin, describing him miserable to play for.

5. Spencer Rattler - 5* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? B/c he got beat out by another 5* QB who was his backup

6. Jordan Travis - 3* HS QB, N/A Transfer
Why? Bobby Petrino got fired.

7. Joe Milton - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? Milton lost his starting QB job to 4* Cade McNamara (recruited), & Michigan also recruited 5* J.J McCarthy in 2021. Milton saw the writing on the wall that he would never see the field at UofM.

8. Devin Leary - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After his OC & QBC, Tim Beck left for the Coastal Carolina HC job, immediately Leary hit the portal.

These guys hit the portal either b/c

a) Their HC left
b) Their Playcaller/OC left
c) They got beat out by another Blue Chip QB

Here’s the context of the Transfer QB’s records from this yr’s draft:

1. Williams (USC): 19-8 (Played for a HC w/ a .821 win %)
2. Daniels (LSU): 20-7 (Played for a HC w/ a .800 win %)
3. Penix (UW): 25-3 (Played for a HC w/ a .896 win %)
4. Nix (UO): 22-5 (Played for a HC w/ a .814 win %)
5. Rattler (USCe): 13-12 (Played for a HC w/ a .526 win %)
6. Milton (UTenn): 9-4 (Played for HC w/ a .733 win %)
7. Leary (UK): 7-6 (Played for a HC w/ a .529 win %)

Did u notice the correlation of transfer QBs success & the HC’s success w/ whom they played for? The only skewed data is Lanning b/c Bo was his 1st QB; however, Williams, Daniels, Penix, Milton all found success by playing for successful, O-minded HC, while Rattler & Leary were both drafted off potential, but did nothing to move the W needle for their new programs.

Here’s the context of all the National Championship Teams since 2019 (Transfer Portal Era):

-2023 UofM (McCarthy - 5* Recruit)
-2022 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2021 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2020 Bama (Jones - 3* Recruit)
-2019 LSU (Burrow - 4* Transfer)

All the Nat’l Championship Teams, except LSU, was led by a recruited QB. Jones & Bennett are anomalies as far as non-blue chip QBs winning Nat’l Championships in the full scope of the 247/Rivals rating eras. I’ve already hashed out that data in other threads showing the overwhelming correlation between teams that have won Nat’l Titles have been led by Blue Chip QBs. However, this small snippet still shows the importance of scouting, recruiting & developing ur own is still king.

Lastly, the data is out there. Top teams r over recruiting Blue Chip QBs & using the transfer portal.

-Now that Daniels has moved on, guess who LSU has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Nussimeir from the class of ‘21

Now that Williams has moved on, guess who USC has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Miller Moss from the class of ‘21

When Gabriel move on from UO, his successor will be 5* Donte from the class of 2023, & have recruited 4* Top 247 Akili Smith Jr for the class of ‘25.

Now that Milton has moved on, his successor is 5* Nico Iamaleava from the class of 2023, & they recruited 4* Top247 Jake Merklinger for the class of ‘24, & already pulled in 5* George McIntyre for the class of ‘25.

Top programs r doing both, not either or & the results speak for themselves. #Richdadpoordad
Click to expand...

Yea!!!!... you tell'em!!!!...🤣🤣
 
Advertisement
DMoney said:
You're looking at it backwards. I don't care why they left. I care that they're available.

That's the key of the Portal. The SUPPLY of transfer QBs is overwhelming. There are a million of reasons why Top 10 QBs don't work out for their teams. You listed a bunch of different ones.

But the reality of the numbers is that they don't work out anymore. And the reality is that there are no top teams right now that start a Top 10 QB (i.e. a bidding war kid) who signed with that team. Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Washington, FSU- they are all starting transfers or high school kids that fell outside the Top 10. The other stars like Brady Cook, Jalon Daniels and Noah Fifita are low-ranked kids.

Does this mean we need to sign Judd Anderson? Of course not. Separate discussion. But we should put our money where it can go further- paying Cam Ward or throwing cash at the top CBs and DLs in high school
Click to expand...
Yea!!! You tell'em too!!!.. 🤣🤣
 
Advertisement
Rellyrell said:
@DMoney



U HAVE to stop doing this. U’re leaving out extremely important, contextual details thus invalidating ur premises.

Let’s look at the NFL draft argument, u made.

Here’s the context of the transfer QBs that got drafted:

1. Caleb Williams - 5* HS QB, 5* Transfer.
Why? His coach & primary recruiter left Oklahoma to USC. Williams followed said coach to USC

2. Jaden Daniels - 4* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? ASU was in the cross hairs of the NCAA for recruiting violations. ASU lost 17 players due to the controversy, including his primary recruiter, Antonio Pierce, who got fired.

3. Michael Penix - 3* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After tearing his ACL once again, IU moved on. Washington’s DeBoer took a chance & it paid off. IU that same yr went after 4* transfer Bazelak who was a bust

4. Bo Nix - 5* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? B/c of Harsin. Nix, along w/ 20 players transferred out of AU after 1 yr under Harsin, describing him miserable to play for.

5. Spencer Rattler - 5* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? B/c he got beat out by another 5* QB who was his backup

6. Jordan Travis - 3* HS QB, N/A Transfer
Why? Bobby Petrino got fired.

7. Joe Milton - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? Milton lost his starting QB job to 4* Cade McNamara (recruited), & Michigan also recruited 5* J.J McCarthy in 2021. Milton saw the writing on the wall that he would never see the field at UofM.

8. Devin Leary - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After his OC & QBC, Tim Beck left for the Coastal Carolina HC job, immediately Leary hit the portal.

These guys hit the portal either b/c

a) Their HC left
b) Their Playcaller/OC left
c) They got beat out by another Blue Chip QB

Here’s the context of the Transfer QB’s records from this yr’s draft:

1. Williams (USC): 19-8 (Played for a HC w/ a .821 win %)
2. Daniels (LSU): 20-7 (Played for a HC w/ a .800 win %)
3. Penix (UW): 25-3 (Played for a HC w/ a .896 win %)
4. Nix (UO): 22-5 (Played for a HC w/ a .814 win %)
5. Rattler (USCe): 13-12 (Played for a HC w/ a .526 win %)
6. Milton (UTenn): 9-4 (Played for HC w/ a .733 win %)
7. Leary (UK): 7-6 (Played for a HC w/ a .529 win %)

Did u notice the correlation of transfer QBs success & the HC’s success w/ whom they played for? The only skewed data is Lanning b/c Bo was his 1st QB; however, Williams, Daniels, Penix, Milton all found success by playing for successful, O-minded HC, while Rattler & Leary were both drafted off potential, but did nothing to move the W needle for their new programs.

Here’s the context of all the National Championship Teams since 2019 (Transfer Portal Era):

-2023 UofM (McCarthy - 5* Recruit)
-2022 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2021 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2020 Bama (Jones - 3* Recruit)
-2019 LSU (Burrow - 4* Transfer)

All the Nat’l Championship Teams, except LSU, was led by a recruited QB. Jones & Bennett are anomalies as far as non-blue chip QBs winning Nat’l Championships in the full scope of the 247/Rivals rating eras. I’ve already hashed out that data in other threads showing the overwhelming correlation between teams that have won Nat’l Titles have been led by Blue Chip QBs. However, this small snippet still shows the importance of scouting, recruiting & developing ur own is still king.

Lastly, the data is out there. Top teams r over recruiting Blue Chip QBs & using the transfer portal.

-Now that Daniels has moved on, guess who LSU has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Nussimeir from the class of ‘21

Now that Williams has moved on, guess who USC has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Miller Moss from the class of ‘21

When Gabriel move on from UO, his successor will be 5* Donte from the class of 2023, & have recruited 4* Top 247 Akili Smith Jr for the class of ‘25.

Now that Milton has moved on, his successor is 5* Nico Iamaleava from the class of 2023, & they recruited 4* Top247 Jake Merklinger for the class of ‘24, & already pulled in 5* George McIntyre for the class of ‘25.

Top programs r doing both, not either or & the results speak for themselves. #Richdadpoordad
Click to expand...

They Pull Me Back In Al Pacino GIF by The Godfather
 
Advertisement
Back
Top