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Miami Flo's Predictions
- Thread starter lindend
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If we had Arch they wouldn't have had Tyler out there playing like a corpse. Emory gave him a longer leash.
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There’s so many good points being made on both sides that I just find myself upvoting everyone.
I award all a trophy. Everyone’s a winner.
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I mean if we’re doing hypotheticals let’s do one that atleast has a remote possibility of happening. Let’s say Arch is the starting QB at Texas next year (seems highly likely) and he leads them to winning a championship, will it still be “bad business” because he sat for 2 years?
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No, in that case it would work out. See, not hard to answer a hypothetical. I don't mind actually supporting my opinions and acknowledging when someone else makes a fair point.
Since you all seem to think Arch transferring isn't realistic and cway says guys are most likely to leave after a coach leaves, let's say for whatever reason Sark leaves after this year—maybe for the NFL or his team completely collapses in the fall—and Arch decides to transfer. Would it then be seen as good business to have a guy sitting two years, paying his high NIL, and then he leaves? Maybe the answer is "You have to take risks." Fine, I have no problem with that answer. But all this debate was about is it better to take that risk or go for a guy who has shown something in college? Quite honestly we have way too small of a sample size in the NIL era to know for sure at this point.
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That's not what the debate is about at all. That's what D$ keeps trying to focus on while avoiding the question.
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Then what exactly do you think the question is that he's avoiding? Everyone else seems to be having the same debate except you.
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It's one of those situations where neither side is correct, but the answer is in the middle. It's knowing exactly where that defines a good coach/evaluator.
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Again this doesn’t make sense to bring up because the rules changed in the summer of 2022.
I agree with you moving forward we should look to multi year transfer QB’s. But I guarantee you that a transfer QB will win a natty in the next three years maybe even this year.
QB is important in CFB. But it’s not the be all end all. How often does the best QB in CFB win a natty? I can make a strong argument that allocating money towards the team around the QB is more important. Then find a QB that’s serviceable to distribute the ball.
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@DMoney
U HAVE to stop doing this. U’re leaving out extremely important, contextual details thus invalidating ur premises.
Let’s look at the NFL draft argument, u made.
Here’s the context of the transfer QBs that got drafted:
1. Caleb Williams - 5* HS QB, 5* Transfer.
Why? His coach & primary recruiter left Oklahoma to USC. Williams followed said coach to USC
2. Jaden Daniels - 4* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? ASU was in the cross hairs of the NCAA for recruiting violations. ASU lost 17 players due to the controversy, including his primary recruiter, Antonio Pierce, who got fired.
3. Michael Penix - 3* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After tearing his ACL once again, IU moved on. Washington’s DeBoer took a chance & it paid off. IU that same yr went after 4* transfer Bazelak who was a bust
4. Bo Nix - 5* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? B/c of Harsin. Nix, along w/ 20 players transferred out of AU after 1 yr under Harsin, describing him miserable to play for.
5. Spencer Rattler - 5* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? B/c he got beat out by another 5* QB who was his backup
6. Jordan Travis - 3* HS QB, N/A Transfer
Why? Bobby Petrino got fired.
7. Joe Milton - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? Milton lost his starting QB job to 4* Cade McNamara (recruited), & Michigan also recruited 5* J.J McCarthy in 2021. Milton saw the writing on the wall that he would never see the field at UofM.
8. Devin Leary - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After his OC & QBC, Tim Beck left for the Coastal Carolina HC job, immediately Leary hit the portal.
These guys hit the portal either b/c
a) Their HC left
b) Their Playcaller/OC left
c) They got beat out by another Blue Chip QB
Here’s the context of the Transfer QB’s records from this yr’s draft:
1. Williams (USC): 19-8 (Played for a HC w/ a .821 win %)
2. Daniels (LSU): 20-7 (Played for a HC w/ a .800 win %)
3. Penix (UW): 25-3 (Played for a HC w/ a .896 win %)
4. Nix (UO): 22-5 (Played for a HC w/ a .814 win %)
5. Rattler (USCe): 13-12 (Played for a HC w/ a .526 win %)
6. Milton (UTenn): 9-4 (Played for HC w/ a .733 win %)
7. Leary (UK): 7-6 (Played for a HC w/ a .529 win %)
Did u notice the correlation of transfer QBs success & the HC’s success w/ whom they played for? The only skewed data is Lanning b/c Bo was his 1st QB; however, Williams, Daniels, Penix, Milton all found success by playing for successful, O-minded HC, while Rattler & Leary were both drafted off potential, but did nothing to move the W needle for their new programs.
Here’s the context of all the National Championship Teams since 2019 (Transfer Portal Era):
-2023 UofM (McCarthy - 5* Recruit)
-2022 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2021 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2020 Bama (Jones - 3* Recruit)
-2019 LSU (Burrow - 4* Transfer)
All the Nat’l Championship Teams, except LSU, was led by a recruited QB. Jones & Bennett are anomalies as far as non-blue chip QBs winning Nat’l Championships in the full scope of the 247/Rivals rating eras. I’ve already hashed out that data in other threads showing the overwhelming correlation between teams that have won Nat’l Titles have been led by Blue Chip QBs. However, this small snippet still shows the importance of scouting, recruiting & developing ur own is still king.
Lastly, the data is out there. Top teams r over recruiting Blue Chip QBs & using the transfer portal.
-Now that Daniels has moved on, guess who LSU has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Nussimeir from the class of ‘21
Now that Williams has moved on, guess who USC has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Miller Moss from the class of ‘21
When Gabriel move on from UO, his successor will be 5* Donte from the class of 2023, & have recruited 4* Top 247 Akili Smith Jr for the class of ‘25.
Now that Milton has moved on, his successor is 5* Nico Iamaleava from the class of 2023, & they recruited 4* Top247 Jake Merklinger for the class of ‘24, & already pulled in 5* George McIntyre for the class of ‘25.
Top programs r doing both, not either or & the results speak for themselves. #Richdadpoordad
U HAVE to stop doing this. U’re leaving out extremely important, contextual details thus invalidating ur premises.
Let’s look at the NFL draft argument, u made.
Here’s the context of the transfer QBs that got drafted:
1. Caleb Williams - 5* HS QB, 5* Transfer.
Why? His coach & primary recruiter left Oklahoma to USC. Williams followed said coach to USC
2. Jaden Daniels - 4* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? ASU was in the cross hairs of the NCAA for recruiting violations. ASU lost 17 players due to the controversy, including his primary recruiter, Antonio Pierce, who got fired.
3. Michael Penix - 3* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After tearing his ACL once again, IU moved on. Washington’s DeBoer took a chance & it paid off. IU that same yr went after 4* transfer Bazelak who was a bust
4. Bo Nix - 5* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? B/c of Harsin. Nix, along w/ 20 players transferred out of AU after 1 yr under Harsin, describing him miserable to play for.
5. Spencer Rattler - 5* HS QB, 4* Transfer
Why? B/c he got beat out by another 5* QB who was his backup
6. Jordan Travis - 3* HS QB, N/A Transfer
Why? Bobby Petrino got fired.
7. Joe Milton - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? Milton lost his starting QB job to 4* Cade McNamara (recruited), & Michigan also recruited 5* J.J McCarthy in 2021. Milton saw the writing on the wall that he would never see the field at UofM.
8. Devin Leary - 4* HS QB, 3* Transfer
Why? After his OC & QBC, Tim Beck left for the Coastal Carolina HC job, immediately Leary hit the portal.
These guys hit the portal either b/c
a) Their HC left
b) Their Playcaller/OC left
c) They got beat out by another Blue Chip QB
Here’s the context of the Transfer QB’s records from this yr’s draft:
1. Williams (USC): 19-8 (Played for a HC w/ a .821 win %)
2. Daniels (LSU): 20-7 (Played for a HC w/ a .800 win %)
3. Penix (UW): 25-3 (Played for a HC w/ a .896 win %)
4. Nix (UO): 22-5 (Played for a HC w/ a .814 win %)
5. Rattler (USCe): 13-12 (Played for a HC w/ a .526 win %)
6. Milton (UTenn): 9-4 (Played for HC w/ a .733 win %)
7. Leary (UK): 7-6 (Played for a HC w/ a .529 win %)
Did u notice the correlation of transfer QBs success & the HC’s success w/ whom they played for? The only skewed data is Lanning b/c Bo was his 1st QB; however, Williams, Daniels, Penix, Milton all found success by playing for successful, O-minded HC, while Rattler & Leary were both drafted off potential, but did nothing to move the W needle for their new programs.
Here’s the context of all the National Championship Teams since 2019 (Transfer Portal Era):
-2023 UofM (McCarthy - 5* Recruit)
-2022 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2021 UGA (Bennett - 2* Recruit)
-2020 Bama (Jones - 3* Recruit)
-2019 LSU (Burrow - 4* Transfer)
All the Nat’l Championship Teams, except LSU, was led by a recruited QB. Jones & Bennett are anomalies as far as non-blue chip QBs winning Nat’l Championships in the full scope of the 247/Rivals rating eras. I’ve already hashed out that data in other threads showing the overwhelming correlation between teams that have won Nat’l Titles have been led by Blue Chip QBs. However, this small snippet still shows the importance of scouting, recruiting & developing ur own is still king.
Lastly, the data is out there. Top teams r over recruiting Blue Chip QBs & using the transfer portal.
-Now that Daniels has moved on, guess who LSU has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Nussimeir from the class of ‘21
Now that Williams has moved on, guess who USC has as their new signal caller?
4* QB Miller Moss from the class of ‘21
When Gabriel move on from UO, his successor will be 5* Donte from the class of 2023, & have recruited 4* Top 247 Akili Smith Jr for the class of ‘25.
Now that Milton has moved on, his successor is 5* Nico Iamaleava from the class of 2023, & they recruited 4* Top247 Jake Merklinger for the class of ‘24, & already pulled in 5* George McIntyre for the class of ‘25.
Top programs r doing both, not either or & the results speak for themselves. #Richdadpoordad
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You're looking at it backwards. I don't care why they left. I care that they're available.
That's the key of the Portal. The SUPPLY of transfer QBs is overwhelming. There are a million of reasons why Top 10 QBs don't work out for their teams. You listed a bunch of different ones.
But the reality of the numbers is that they don't work out anymore. And the reality is that there are no top teams right now that start a Top 10 QB (i.e. a bidding war kid) who signed with that team. Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Washington, FSU- they are all starting transfers or high school kids that fell outside the Top 10. The other stars like Brady Cook, Jalon Daniels and Noah Fifita are low-ranked kids.
Does this mean we need to sign Judd Anderson? Of course not. Separate discussion. But we should put our money where it can go further- paying Cam Ward or throwing cash at the top CBs and DLs in high school
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For no reason at all this ish made me laugh. Lol I appreciate it.
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Read the whole post vs. responding so quickly. Lol
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Really well done. You got me .
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I've seen it before. And while I respect you and your presentation, it's outdated info that's all over the place.
Look at the Portal-era examples on your list. Stetson Bennett is not a "recruited kid." He's a walk-on who went to JUCO and transferred back. Mac Jones is a three-star. We know Joe Burrow's story as a transfer.
You used JJ McCarthy as an example. The other team in the title game (Washington) was carried by a transfer. Texas started a transfer. Jalen Milroe was not a big money, Top 10 QB. The Heisman was a transfer. The previous year's Heisman was a transfer. Eight of the 11 drafted kids were transfers.
Spend money on an NFL prospect in the Portal. Recruit kids from high school with upside who don't cost a lot. It can be a mid-4 star like Carson Beck or a three-star like Brady Cook. If a five-star wants to take less money to come to your school, great. But don't get in a bidding war for a lottery ticket.
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Dante Moore is a transfer.
Nussimeir was the 13th ranked player in LSU's own recruiting class. He was also not a Top 10 QB.
Miller Moss was not a Top 10 QB and was not even the highest-rated QB in USC's recruiting class.
The point isn't "stop taking high school QBs" or "never take a blue-chip QB." It's that we should never be overpaying for them. The top of our class (i.e. the big money items) should be DL, CB and skill guys. Spend seven-figures on Cam Ward.
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Still hasn't been a transfer champ (Like Brandy said almost doesnt count).
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Spending 5% of your NIL budget on a backup QB who is likely to transfer out or hold you hostage for an increase in pay before they ever take a snap is poor allocation of our NIL. It's really that simple. As D$ said, it's not about 3 or 4 stars. It's about the financial investment. And at the QB position you're going to have to heavily recruit your own players to stay yearly if you are talking about the elite guys.
You pay your QB room as a whole like 15-20% max of your yearly NIL budget. The starter should be making >80-90% of that. You need like 2-3 backups. That means the backups should be getting like 1% each of our total NIL budget (so closer to <$200k each on average). So if you get a couple 3 stars with potential who only take up like $80k, and then one higher rated guy that costs like $400k, thats an okay strategy. But that likely isn't going to be a 5star or the highest 4 star QBs who are probably easily clearing $500k/yr.
So if we want to go all out for a HS QB, IMO it has to be with the intention of him starting right away. Thats what it comes down to. Spend $2-4M on our starting QB yearly. Backups should ideally cost <$500k in total. Also if you are going to spend >$2M on a Qb, getting a more proven asset will have a higher probability of success. Either sign the top 1-2 QB coming out of HS or sign the top 1-2 QB in the portal. The portal guy probably has the higher hit rate. But the HS guy would have the benefit of being your guy for 3 years... One or the other though, Not both.
You pay your QB room as a whole like 15-20% max of your yearly NIL budget. The starter should be making >80-90% of that. You need like 2-3 backups. That means the backups should be getting like 1% each of our total NIL budget (so closer to <$200k each on average). So if you get a couple 3 stars with potential who only take up like $80k, and then one higher rated guy that costs like $400k, thats an okay strategy. But that likely isn't going to be a 5star or the highest 4 star QBs who are probably easily clearing $500k/yr.
So if we want to go all out for a HS QB, IMO it has to be with the intention of him starting right away. Thats what it comes down to. Spend $2-4M on our starting QB yearly. Backups should ideally cost <$500k in total. Also if you are going to spend >$2M on a Qb, getting a more proven asset will have a higher probability of success. Either sign the top 1-2 QB coming out of HS or sign the top 1-2 QB in the portal. The portal guy probably has the higher hit rate. But the HS guy would have the benefit of being your guy for 3 years... One or the other though, Not both.
TriStarCane
Coaching Carousel 2029
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Missing the part of why the draft is an indicator of success? Do the numbers change when you look at winning? Isn’t that the standard? Miami fans particularly have a hardon for NFL drafted players. I’ll take a QB that wins and distributes over a first round pick. Just curious
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