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Miami (-8) @ BC 11/24/23

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grogz26 said:
Brah I live in Boston, no one even knows BC has a football team, so good luck with that. Bruins and Celtics combined like 23-2 right now. But I’ll be there too, go canes! Def taking BC to cover though.
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I honestly was kidding. I'm staying in the Seaport District, my buddy who lives in Harvard is coming down and we're going to Uber to game, probably come back and hit up Trillium, it's right near where we're staying.
 
The line is now -10.5 Canes. In a must win game line moving in our favor seems to point out there is no reason to lose this game.
 
From the BC 247 board preview of the game:

Despite the identity and culture Mario Cristobal wants his programs to exude, the Hurricanes are not a particularly run-heavy team, both in frequency and effectiveness. They rank 69th in Designed Rush Rate (46.9%), 52nd in rushing yards per game (170.8), 53rd in EPA per Designed Rush (0.03), and t-77th in Rushing Success Rate (40.9%). Miami mostly uses Zone running concepts, almost exclusively from Shotgun, which take advantage of their running backs’ speed. Interestingly, their personnel usage is a strong tell for whether they are running or passing. When the Hurricanes have two or more tight ends or two running backs on the field, they run the ball on 71.9% of those snaps.

AS we already know, word has been out. Sure hope Dawson has some new tricks for Friday
 
Hoyacane1620 said:
From the BC 247 board preview of the game:

Despite the identity and culture Mario Cristobal wants his programs to exude, the Hurricanes are not a particularly run-heavy team, both in frequency and effectiveness. They rank 69th in Designed Rush Rate (46.9%), 52nd in rushing yards per game (170.8), 53rd in EPA per Designed Rush (0.03), and t-77th in Rushing Success Rate (40.9%). Miami mostly uses Zone running concepts, almost exclusively from Shotgun, which take advantage of their running backs’ speed. Interestingly, their personnel usage is a strong tell for whether they are running or passing. When the Hurricanes have two or more tight ends or two running backs on the field, they run the ball on 71.9% of those snaps.

AS we already know, word has been out. Sure hope Dawson has some new tricks for Friday
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Homer Drool GIF


Self scouting
 
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If you liked BC +8, you’ll love +10.5.

I would like to think we win but don’t cover - something like 23-17.
 
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Some notes from BC 247 board:

-Thwarting the Miami offense comes down to two elements. First, BC should not be afraid to let the Hurricanes run the ball. They certainly need to try to limit explosive runs, which has been a serious issue for this defense and could be exploited by Miami’s fast and uber-athletic running backs. But letting Miami slowly move the ball on the ground actually plays into BC’s hands, as they will chew the clock away by doing that.

-Second, the Eagles need to play conservatively on the back end with more Zone coverage shells focused on preventing deep passes. They should not blitz, as that gives Van Dyke easy answers, and he’s proven to be good against the blitz; his PFF Passing grade is 86.7 when blitzed, compared to 75.8 when not blitzed. BC needs to only rush three or four and make Van Dyke think, possibly forcing him into throwing interceptions. If he keeps peppering them with screens and RPOs, that’s fine, so long as BC tackles properly and limits yards after the catch, which is a dubious proposition.

-Even though BC should run the ball on almost every snap, when they don’t, they need to find some edges in this game with trick plays and misdirection. It’s the last game of the season, so there’s no reason to hold anything back in the playbook. The Eagles have shown some creativity on offense this year, incorporating unorthodox formations and packaging the same play in very different ways. BC has struggled to execute the traditional drop back passing game, so they need to find some other ways to throw the ball if they are going to do so.

-BC needs to consistently run the ball right into the teeth of the Miami defense. If the offensive line can generate some push and open up holes for Kye Robichaux and Alex Broome, that will go a long way to keeping BC’s offense on schedule. Miami is better at rushing the passer than stopping the run.

-The premier matchup will be defensive tackle Leonard Taylor III versus the interior of BC’s offensive line. Taylor is very explosive and quick for his size, but he occasionally loses interest in run defense and tackling. Christian Mahogany and Kyle Hergel might be able to break his will. On the outside, true freshman Rueben Bain will be quite the handful for Logan Taylor and Ozzy Trapilo. While Bain has hit a bit of a freshman wall and cooled off in recent games, Taylor has also regressed a bit in the last few games.

-BC’s Biggest Weakness: BC Defensive Backs vs. UM Wide Receivers: it will probably have the greatest impact on the outcome of the game. BC has struggled against decent at best wide receiver groups from Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Miami’s wide receiver group is significantly better than all those groups and is probably tied for the second-best BC has faced with Louisville and behind only Florida State. Xavier Restrepo is one of the best and most reliable receivers in all of college football, while the trio of Jacolby George, Colbie Young, and Brashard Smith form one of the most explosive trios.


FINAL ANALYIS FROM THE BC SIDE:

Both teams enter this contest riding at least two-game losing streaks (three in Miami’s case). But BC has looked much worse during that losing streak, getting blown out by a mediocre Virginia Tech team and losing to a bad Pittsburgh team. Miami has actually hung tough with some of the best teams in the conference despite poor quarterback play and injuries. Therefore, I expect the Hurricanes to win this game comfortably. They simply have too much talent and athleticism, plus superior coaching on both sides of the ball. BC needs too much to break their way to keep this game competitive.,

MIAMI 41 - BC 17
 
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Hoyacane1620 said:
Some notes from BC 247 board:

FINAL ANALYIS FROM THE BC SIDE:

Both teams enter this contest riding at least two-game losing streaks (three in Miami’s case). But BC has looked much worse during that losing streak, getting blown out by a mediocre Virginia Tech team and losing to a bad Pittsburgh team. Miami has actually hung tough with some of the best teams in the conference despite poor quarterback play and injuries. Therefore, I expect the Hurricanes to win this game comfortably. They simply have too much talent and athleticism, plus superior coaching on both sides of the ball. BC needs too much to break their way to keep this game competitive.,

MIAMI 41 - BC 17
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LOL @ superior coaching
 
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