Miami (+13.5) @ Georgia Tech: predict the score

[CaneLB]

45-27 GT.

Only thing preventing them from scoring 50+ is the clock because of long drives.

 

[TheUnuffSAID]

BC Offense 32 points

K State Offense 52 points

GT Offense 72 points

Washington is nowhere near as good as Klein, and I think PJ is too stubborn to line up 5 wide and let him run it.

Plus, if anybody knows the weaknesses in Groh's defense, it's Golden & Co. We'll also have Hurns back and Duke coming of a monster game.

Canes 28
Gtech 17

I know I just liked the +20 trend guess you didn't catch that

 

[canesrdynamite]

I know I just liked the +20 trend guess you didn't catch that

lol nope. I was too busy polishing my orange and green glasses.

Canes 48
Gtech 17

 

[TheUnuffSAID]

I know I just liked the +20 trend guess you didn't catch that

lol nope. I was too busy polishing my orange and green glasses.

Canes 48
Gtech 17

 

[DeadPoets]

The pussification of our fan base is unbelievable....we've handled these guys easily two years in a row. We deserve to be underdogs, sure....but the general attitude of some of you guys is ****ing embarrassing.

Pussification of the fans base or the program for last 8 years?

I'll hang up and listen

 

[whoopingcane]

I hear they've been playing a vanilla defense thus far. Donomuchabouthistory is going to open up the defensive playbook on Saturday.

Miami 23
GT 0

 

[gordonsolie]

GT 55 Miami 10

 

[BrockBerlin]

Who's gonna make plays? If DP is indeed out and Kirby isn't ready then who on earth is going to tackle people come saturday. Our line could get better with more kids getting burn last week but seriously, WHO IS GOING TO MAKE PLAYS? So far we Duke as a threat and Hurns if he's healthy. And then what? Chick will get doubled, Bush will do his best but he's only so experienced right now. Barring a coaching miracle, we lose. And I REALLY want to see a win.

 

[UCaneDoIt]

GT 63
Miami 6

 

[Canesfan1899]

If Morris plays like he did Saturday GT 55 Miami 10. If he plays better but not great GT 38 Miami 24. If he plays real well, Miami 35 GT 31. Our season is 100% on Morris, we go how he plays.

This, and I feel like GT's defense is going to confuse him, it could be a long day.

 

[Boarcane]

GT 59 UM 13

 

[Awsi Dooger]

GT has been favored the past 4 seasons.

We've won 3 in a row

That's simply incorrect. Wildly incorrect. But very familiar. It would make a fascinating psychological study. Fans of every team thrill to exaggerate the level of disrespect from the oddsmakers, and therefore public opinion. Penn State fans love to assert they were 14 to 20 point underdogs against the Canes in the 1986 season Fiesta Bowl, not the -7.5 that was the standard line for a month and basically never moved. Likewise Alabama fans regarding the 1992 season Sugar Bowl. Miami was favored by a touchdown. Ohio State fans aren't happy with proclaiming they overcame +11.5 underdog status in the 2002 season Fiesta Bowl so they comfortably double it.

Just two weeks ago on a Dolphins message board a fan posted in huge block bold bettering that Miami was +17 at home in the famous upset of the undefeated Bears in 1985. Many posters applauded him and started quoting that number in subsequent posts. Meanwhile, the line was Chicago -4. It drifted to -3.5 late on game day.

Apparently there is a high profile example in Canes related literature. Several years ago a poster on the Rivals board touted an assertion in a Canes football book -- Cane Mutiny (?) -- that Miami was a 49 point underdog against Penn State in 1979, the famous Jim Kelly upset in his debut, 26-10. Sounded preposterous to me. I remember that game. Penn State was hardly a juggernaut that season. Pointspreads of that size are very rare to begin with, but to manufacture one you need a combo, for the favorite to be a dominant team while the underdog is a powerpuff weakling. Anything in between doesn't justify -49, or anything resembling that range. In that thread I guessed the spread would have been low 20s. Unfazed, the poster stood by his number, saying a researched work in print had more credibility than my memory and evaluation of attached variables. I warned him the findings would not work out in his favor. I contacted goldsheet.com, probably the premier pointspread source in the country, and one of their long term employees was intrigued by the situation. He promised to research it. A few days later he emailed the correct spread from 1979 -- Penn State was -19.5. Just a wee bit outside.

Anyway, back to the premise of the post that I quoted. These are the pointspreads from the past four Miami/Georgia Tech games:

2008: Georgia Tech -3.5
2009: Miami -4.5
2010: Miami -3
2011: Miami -3

You would have gotten away with claiming Miami as underdog all four times if I hadn't shown up. That's generally how it works.

***

Toward the idea that the money line is the way to go on the Canes, I agree with the premise. You never want to play teasers in college football, for example. Those are laughably ignorant bets. The outcome doesn't jive with the spread often enough to justify it. Objects may be closer than they appear, or 10 miles further down the road. Matchups and style.

I think we'll know fairly quickly. Georgia Tech may dictate the line of scrimmage with little expended energy, but if they don't then suddenly you're giving -13.5 points or -500 money line among comparable athletes.

One caution: The current +415 to +425 isn't great value for a 13.5 point underdog, and a spread that could go higher. On my chart it indicates +450 requirement to take the money line in that range. You never want to ignore the math and plunge to make a point. The public does that all the time in the Super Bowl, taking the money line absurdly low on the underdog.

 

[pcitycane]

That's simply incorrect. Wildly incorrect. But very familiar. It would make a fascinating psychological study. Fans of every team thrill to exaggerate the level of disrespect from the oddsmakers, and therefore public opinion. Penn State fans love to assert they were 14 to 20 point underdogs against the Canes in the 1986 season Fiesta Bowl, not the -7.5 that was the standard line for a month and basically never moved. Likewise Alabama fans regarding the 1992 season Sugar Bowl. Miami was favored by a touchdown. Ohio State fans aren't happy with proclaiming they overcame +11.5 underdog status in the 2002 season Fiesta Bowl so they comfortably double it.

Just two weeks ago on a Dolphins message board a fan posted in huge block bold bettering that Miami was +17 at home in the famous upset of the undefeated Bears in 1985. Many posters applauded him and started quoting that number in subsequent posts. Meanwhile, the line was Chicago -4. It drifted to -3.5 late on game day.

Apparently there is a high profile example in Canes related literature. Several years ago a poster on the Rivals board touted an assertion in a Canes football book -- Cane Mutiny (?) -- that Miami was a 49 point underdog against Penn State in 1979, the famous Jim Kelly upset in his debut, 26-10. Sounded preposterous to me. I remember that game. Penn State was hardly a juggernaut that season. Pointspreads of that size are very rare to begin with, but to manufacture one you need a combo, for the favorite to be a dominant team while the underdog is a powerpuff weakling. Anything in between doesn't justify -49, or anything resembling that range. In that thread I guessed the spread would have been low 20s. Unfazed, the poster stood by his number, saying a researched work in print had more credibility than my memory and evaluation of attached variables. I warned him the findings would not work out in his favor. I contacted goldsheet.com, probably the premier pointspread source in the country, and one of their long term employees was intrigued by the situation. He promised to research it. A few days later he emailed the correct spread from 1979 -- Penn State was -19.5. Just a wee bit outside.

Anyway, back to the premise of the post that I quoted. These are the pointspreads from the past four Miami/Georgia Tech games:

2008: Georgia Tech -3.5
2009: Miami -4.5
2010: Miami -3
2011: Miami -3

You would have gotten away with claiming Miami as underdog all four times if I hadn't shown up. That's generally how it works.

***

Anyway, toward the idea that the money line is the way to go on the Canes, I agree with the premise. You never want to play teasers in college football, for example. Those are laughably ignorant bets. The outcome doesn't jive with the spread often enough to justify it. Objects may be closer than they appear, or 10 miles further down the road. Matchups and style.

I think we'll know fairly quickly. Georgia Tech may dictate the line of scrimmage with little expended energy, but if they don't then suddenly you're giving -13.5 points or -500 money line among comparable athletes.

One caution: The current +415 to +425 isn't great value for a 13.5 point underdog, and a spread that could go higher. On my chart it indicates +450 requirement to take the money line in that range. You never want to ignore the math and plunge to make a point. The public does that all the time in the Super Bowl, taking the money line absurdly low on the underdog.

U just got mind ****ed bro

 

[SmokeyRone]

btw, we don't have J12 and Streeter. Morris looked worse than j12 in last 2 games. Streeter was a real deep and red zone threat

I said all along is Morris was our starter, 4-8.

 

[PuertoRiCane]

Our defensive strategy = let the other team exhaust themselves by scoring uncontested touchdowns.

Then, when they're tired, we make our move!

72 - GT
10 - UM

 

[JefeGringo]

GT has been favored the past 4 seasons.

We've won 3 in a row

That's simply incorrect. Wildly incorrect. But very familiar. It would make a fascinating psychological study. Fans of every team thrill to exaggerate the level of disrespect from the oddsmakers, and therefore public opinion. Penn State fans love to assert they were 14 to 20 point underdogs against the Canes in the 1986 season Fiesta Bowl, not the -7.5 that was the standard line for a month and basically never moved. Likewise Alabama fans regarding the 1992 season Sugar Bowl. Miami was favored by a touchdown. Ohio State fans aren't happy with proclaiming they overcame +11.5 underdog status in the 2002 season Fiesta Bowl so they comfortably double it.

Just two weeks ago on a Dolphins message board a fan posted in huge block bold bettering that Miami was +17 at home in the famous upset of the undefeated Bears in 1985. Many posters applauded him and started quoting that number in subsequent posts. Meanwhile, the line was Chicago -4. It drifted to -3.5 late on game day.

Apparently there is a high profile example in Canes related literature. Several years ago a poster on the Rivals board touted an assertion in a Canes football book -- Cane Mutiny (?) -- that Miami was a 49 point underdog against Penn State in 1979, the famous Jim Kelly upset in his debut, 26-10. Sounded preposterous to me. I remember that game. Penn State was hardly a juggernaut that season. Pointspreads of that size are very rare to begin with, but to manufacture one you need a combo, for the favorite to be a dominant team while the underdog is a powerpuff weakling. Anything in between doesn't justify -49, or anything resembling that range. In that thread I guessed the spread would have been low 20s. Unfazed, the poster stood by his number, saying a researched work in print had more credibility than my memory and evaluation of attached variables. I warned him the findings would not work out in his favor. I contacted goldsheet.com, probably the premier pointspread source in the country, and one of their long term employees was intrigued by the situation. He promised to research it. A few days later he emailed the correct spread from 1979 -- Penn State was -19.5. Just a wee bit outside.

Anyway, back to the premise of the post that I quoted. These are the pointspreads from the past four Miami/Georgia Tech games:

2008: Georgia Tech -3.5
2009: Miami -4.5
2010: Miami -3
2011: Miami -3

You would have gotten away with claiming Miami as underdog all four times if I hadn't shown up. That's generally how it works.

***

Toward the idea that the money line is the way to go on the Canes, I agree with the premise. You never want to play teasers in college football, for example. Those are laughably ignorant bets. The outcome doesn't jive with the spread often enough to justify it. Objects may be closer than they appear, or 10 miles further down the road. Matchups and style.

I think we'll know fairly quickly. Georgia Tech may dictate the line of scrimmage with little expended energy, but if they don't then suddenly you're giving -13.5 points or -500 money line among comparable athletes.

One caution: The current +415 to +425 isn't great value for a 13.5 point underdog, and a spread that could go higher. On my chart it indicates +450 requirement to take the money line in that range. You never want to ignore the math and plunge to make a point. The public does that all the time in the Super Bowl, taking the money line absurdly low on the underdog.

There are people who play the game and there are people who really play the game. I didnt think we were underdogs the last 4 years, I did think one of our games was a pick em though.

 

[canecountry3]

I wonder how many of these experts predicting a blowout in GT's favor also were picking Miami to beat KSU.

Yawn.

 

[NVA CANE]

Miami 37 Georgia tech 17. That's right ******* we win. Georgia tech prepare thy ****

 

[Jonnyblaze]

Nothing about this matchup points to anything other than an beat down. GT puts up 400 yards rushing and doesn't punt once.

GT 41

UM 21 ( at least one garbage time score )

 

[bbcane]

Who and when is the last 13-14 point dog to win?