Line Miami(-5.5) vs GT

[tru2c]

I think we are forgetting that GT put up 36 straight on us last year and we barely got out of that game with a W. Now I agree, if we play well, especially offensively, we roll. But if we aren't sharp, I'm still not fully convinced our defense will shut them down. Yes, we are much improved from last year, and a healthy porter + renfrow and pierre help bigtime. But GT's lame offense can put up points if you aren't prepared. We should win, but the sample size for me is still too small for me to say with full confidence that our defense will shut down their offense, especially with how helpless we looked at times last year against them

That's a great post because our defense is the same as it was last year.

In terms of what? It's not the players because we have tremendous depth along the front, guys are healthy and we have new bodies in there. I don't believe it's the scheme, either. I'm no xs and os geek like others on here supposedly are, but the scheme and what we're running this year sure looks different to me. Different looks, more aggressive, etc.

I do agree, though, that GT can hang 20-25 on us if we're not careful.

I'm pretty sure 'Chise wrote that with his tongue firmly planted in his cheek.

You are correct. When guys start talking about what teams did to our D last year I automatically chalk it up as dumb and stop reading.

Did you read where I said "yes, we are much improved from last year...?" Our D from last year would never have played so well against UF. That said, we still gave up a ton of yardage (mostly because our O was constantly 3-out). We are definitely improved from last year. But IMO we don't know how improved just yet...FAU, USF, and Savannah State blow. And GT is about gaps/assignments as much as anything, and last year we clearly didn't have those down. So all I'm saying is I don't see this game as the 100% lock city blowout they dont stand a chance game that everyone else sees. I think if we come out flat, we can lose.

 

[mossmadness]

I think we are forgetting that GT put up 36 straight on us last year and we barely got out of that game with a W. Now I agree, if we play well, especially offensively, we roll. But if we aren't sharp, I'm still not fully convinced our defense will shut them down. Yes, we are much improved from last year, and a healthy porter + renfrow and pierre help bigtime. But GT's lame offense can put up points if you aren't prepared. We should win, but the sample size for me is still too small for me to say with full confidence that our defense will shut down their offense, especially with how helpless we looked at times last year against them

But if you are trying to project, you would remove the outlier. That is the 36 points. Usually, we keep them in check due to how well their system fits ours.

 

[tru2c]

I think we are forgetting that GT put up 36 straight on us last year and we barely got out of that game with a W. Now I agree, if we play well, especially offensively, we roll. But if we aren't sharp, I'm still not fully convinced our defense will shut them down. Yes, we are much improved from last year, and a healthy porter + renfrow and pierre help bigtime. But GT's lame offense can put up points if you aren't prepared. We should win, but the sample size for me is still too small for me to say with full confidence that our defense will shut down their offense, especially with how helpless we looked at times last year against them

But if you are trying to project, you would remove the outlier. That is the 36 points. Usually, we keep them in check due to how well their system fits ours.

Yea, I see what you're saying. Although most of our defense didn't play on those defenses that dominated GT, especially the db's. So it might not be such an outlier... But the guys that did, Perryman, Chickillo, Green, Gaines, Porter are pretty key positions defending GT, so I do sort of agree. Again, I expect us to win, and if we play well we should have no problem cruising. But it could also be a competitive game

 

[DeadPoets]

What's the over under? 55 or so?

 

[CaneShake]

61

 

[The Franchise]

That's a great post because our defense is the same as it was last year.

In terms of what? It's not the players because we have tremendous depth along the front, guys are healthy and we have new bodies in there. I don't believe it's the scheme, either. I'm no xs and os geek like others on here supposedly are, but the scheme and what we're running this year sure looks different to me. Different looks, more aggressive, etc.

I do agree, though, that GT can hang 20-25 on us if we're not careful.

I'm pretty sure 'Chise wrote that with his tongue firmly planted in his cheek.

You are correct. When guys start talking about what teams did to our D last year I automatically chalk it up as dumb and stop reading.

Did you read where I said "yes, we are much improved from last year...?" Our D from last year would never have played so well against UF. That said, we still gave up a ton of yardage (mostly because our O was constantly 3-out). We are definitely improved from last year. But IMO we don't know how improved just yet...FAU, USF, and Savannah State blow. And GT is about gaps/assignments as much as anything, and last year we clearly didn't have those down. So all I'm saying is I don't see this game as the 100% lock city blowout they dont stand a chance game that everyone else sees. I think if we come out flat, we can lose.

I stopped reading after you said this: "I think we are forgetting that GT put up 36 straight on us last year and we barely got out of that game with a W."

 

[DeadPoets]

61

So Vegas is saying 34-27 type game.

 

[Mbecks22]

still no line with my guy, my site, or scoresandodds.com



Would like to hurry up and get this in before they announce that Morris and Duke are fine.

This sucks.

Been checking for 2 days every few hours. Put up a GD Line already!!

 

[Cknucks305]

Way low

 

[dycane]

still no line with my guy, my site, or scoresandodds.com



Would like to hurry up and get this in before they announce that Morris and Duke are fine.

This sucks.

Been checking for 2 days every few hours. Put up a GD Line already!!

Same.

 

[Kn[]_[]ckles3o5]

I got Miami 37-16 FWIW

 

[dycane]

I got Miami 37-16 FWIW

Morris will have to throw 7's to get there.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I haven't seen a number. I expected -9 or -10. Hard to believe it will be lower than that once an official number is out there, assuming good health for Morris.

The race and sportsbook manager at Wynn is Johnny Avello. He likes to go first with the numbers and isn't afraid to sway from the consensus of the offshore outfits. He is also known to tilt toward underdogs and open the favorites too low, often failing to catch the full wave of the most recent trend. If the game opened -5.5 at Wynn, and he took a few pops in that range, it's because Avello used the power ratings prior to last week's games and didn't make enough of an adjustment. That's hardly unusual in Las Vegas. Every joint that has an independent line develops its own tendencies, and if you follow closely you can take advantage of their weaknesses.

Unfortunately, instead of virtually every casino running its own book, like 15 or 20 years ago, via corporate mergers you now have satellite books everywhere. And therefore exponentially fewer mistakes. That's what prompted dozens of us to leave town. Previously a sharp guy didn't really need to handicap the games. You merely waited for the dependable errors. For example, like clockwork every year some sportsbook would forget that college basketball is not a 50/50 split in terms of points scored in the first half and second half. For a 140 total it's more like 65/75. But some dunce manager every year would see a 140 total and decide to put up a homemade first half line. He'd make it 70 and we'd pounce on the under. That might last a week or so until he wised up. Meanwhile, you've had a huge edge for a week and racked up many net units to the positive. Then you transitioned to the next dependable gaffe, like Harrah's failing to adjust a series price or future book price after a pivotal game was played earlier in the day. That's why we called that sportsbook The Gift Shop. These days it's kind of discouraging with a need to actually decipher the games.

 

[zone3cane]

lol I wonder who the "Sharps" are going to throw their money at.... it wont even matter.

 

[dycane]

I haven't seen a number. I expected -9 or -10. Hard to believe it will be lower than that once an official number is out there, assuming good health for Morris.

The race and sportsbook manager at Wynn is Johnny Avello. He likes to go first with the numbers and isn't afraid to sway from the consensus of the offshore outfits. He is also known to tilt toward underdogs and open the favorites too low, often failing to catch the full wave of the most recent trend. If the game opened -5.5 at Wynn, and he took a few pops in that range, it's because Avello used the power ratings prior to last week's games and didn't make enough of an adjustment. That's hardly unusual in Las Vegas. Every joint that has an independent line develops its own tendencies, and if you follow closely you can take advantage of their weaknesses.

Unfortunately, instead of virtually every casino running its own book, like 15 or 20 years ago, via corporate mergers you now have satellite books everywhere. And therefore exponentially fewer mistakes. That's what prompted dozens of us to leave town. Previously a sharp guy didn't really need to handicap the games. You merely waited for the dependable errors. For example, like clockwork every year some sportsbook would forget that college basketball is not a 50/50 split in terms of points scored in the first half and second half. For a 140 total it's more like 65/75. But some dunce manager every year would see a 140 total and decide to put up a homemade first half line. He'd make it 70 and we'd pounce on the under. That might last a week or so until he wised up. Meanwhile, you've had a huge edge for a week and racked up many net units to the positive. Then you transitioned to the next dependable gaffe, like Harrah's failing to adjust a series price or future book price after a pivotal game was played earlier in the day. That's why we called that sportsbook The Gift Shop. These days it's kind of discouraging with a need to actually decipher the games.

I'd invite you to debate zone on sportsbook intricacies.

 

[zone3cane]

naw you all no more then me about all of that....

i just know about garbage teams and good teams, and is pretty good w/ keying in on how teams will play versus different match-ups.

My opinion on Vegas and Sharps were more sarcasm then anything..... i just sarcastically said Vegas must be conspiring to get more betters to switch sides or these Sharps are retarded about the whole USF debate ppl were so "concerned" over.

 

[George84]

Covers is showing at least one online book at -7

http://www.covers.com/odds/football/college-football-odds.aspx

 

[zone3cane]

Once all the right ppl get their heads out of their ***, I expect the spread to move up closer to 10 before gameday....

even if or when thats the case, EASY MONEY regardless.

 

[fastcane]

Just went into the casino, no Miami line yet.


QUOTE=Mbecks22;1611731]still no line with my guy, my site, or scoresandodds.com



Would like to hurry up and get this in before they announce that Morris and Duke are fine.

This sucks.

Been checking for 2 days every few hours. Put up a GD Line already!![/QUOTE]

 

[CanesGotSWAG!]

I say run up the score on these GT *****. I can't stand Paul Johnson. He would be hard for me not to kick him in the nuts if we crossed paths.