Kalen Deboer

[HughFreezemyCuckoldYesPlz]

You make some interesting points.

But let's take a closer look.

You say Milroe "can barely throw". Yet the stats don't show that. He's the #5 quarterback in the country by QBR and seems to be slotted as the #4 QB in the upcoming NFL draft. If that's a guy who "can barely throw", then give me that at Miami every single year.

Offensive points production - Yes, there is an improvement from 2023 (regular season) to 2024. But that is almost due to the OOC schedule, particularly two games. In 2023, Alabama lost to Texas (OOC) and struggled with USF. This year, Alabama destroyed USF and Wisconsin. Therefore, almost all of the "offensive improvement" came in September in two OOC games, because the SEC offensive production is nearly identical between 2023 (regular season) and 2024.

Defensive points allowed - Similar to what is described above, when you look at SEC only, Alabama is actually giving up nearly 7 points per game MORE than they did last year. Through 6 SEC games, Alabama has given up 160 points, while they gave up 161 points in 8 SEC games in 2023 (regular season). Again, any defensive improvement has come from the OOC games, as Alabama shut out Western Kentucky and Wisconsin in 2024, and held USF and Mercer to a combined 23 points.

The moral of the story? Add Texas to the SEC and replace that OOC game with a much weaker opponent like Wisconsin (and/or cripple the Wisconsin QB at the beginning of the game).

Yes, Alabama lost a bunch of guys. And in a weird way, this seems to be right in DeBoer's wheelhouse. He has not yet stayed at a head coaching job very well, so he seems to be good at a quick turnaround, though it is less certain how "permanent" his turnarounds are. Full credit to DeBoer for keeping things together for Year 1 at Alabama.

You keep talking about this 10-2, let's see what transpires. I'm willing to give credit that is earned.

Ultimately, it's possible that DeBoer can ramp things up for the first few years, but that could be Norvell-like and/or Sanders-like, we just don't know yet. I would like to see how things go once DeBoer has his own players in place and he is spending his fifth year in Tuscaloosa.

Thanks OC! Im not as fast as you responding so bear with me:

1. Right now Milroe has the number 5 QBR which is right.

What isn’t being dug out in this is that both passing AND running metrics are factored into the number 5 ranking. If you further look at those specific metrics Milroe is amazingly high in his running rating (number 5 overall) but his passer ranking among d1 qbs is 37th. Even looking at that closer, he is number 1 in the country among power 5 qbs for the running metric of the qbr. Basically, his amazing ability to run is what is hyper dominating his overall qbr.

DeBoer and co, adjusted to his mid season major struggles passing the ball simplifying the passing game and relying much more on his true skill set. He was absolutely awful against Tennessee throwing the ball missing wide open wrs for part of that game and is pretty mediocre. Milroe lost the Tennessee game.

He is right now much closer to Anthony Richardson than Jalen Hurts. If Anthony Richardson can get drafted high on potential/physical meaurables so can Milroe, though. So the hypothetical projection is less important to me if a qb as awful throwing the ball as Richardson can be a first rounder.

2. Regarding the offensive points in production, I agree that they don’t have an out of conference opponent like Texas this year. That said, their SOS overall THIS year is still top 5/10. At an overall aggregate that signifies improvement (ppg improvement while having similar tough schedule).

While they scored a lot against WKU and Wisconsin, the SEC consideration is at best a mild agreement. They scored 41 against Georgia which is above their average last year, 34 against Missouri which is above their average last year, 35 against Vanderbilt which is above their average last year, 42 against LSU also above their average last year. All such outputs are also slightly above or below their average this year. Otherwise only SC and Tennessee in the SEC were below their average from LAST year. In fact the Tennessee game is what truly is driving their average down even more, SEC or not. Had DeBoer used their current offensive philosophy they may have scored more points despite Tennessee having a nearly elite defense this year (won’t focus on hypotheticals though).

3 Regarding defensive cumulative points initially you are correct.

Some disagreements: they didn’t peak on defense in their out of state games only. In the SEC slate under Wommack post-Vanderbilt they gradually have gotten better (not counting Mercer) now that they are aligning under a near totally different defensive staff and massive turnover in the secondary. They lost to Tennessee not due to their defense but Milroe being totally awful wasting countless gifts from their defense and missing wide open throws (stimulant for their change in offense their onwards).

What makes this defensive improvement (or constant performance relative to last year if being totally fair) more impressive pertains to the loss in personnel. It matters losing leadership and continuity from a program that had made the final four the prior year. 10 lost dbs in one season prior to this one including draft picks and studs is a staggering thing to underplay. More or less they lost nearly all of their hypothetical 3-deep from last year in the secondary. Thats how good their defensive coaching has been: they can not only so far approximate their last season defensive ppg but slightly improve it with so much change in coaching and personnel is even more impressive. Also i think averages make a lot more sense when comparing and team rankings relative to total points scored.

Their defense, particularly their secondary, does not have close to the talent they had last year. Thats not even debatable.

4 They SHOULD go 10-2 but I agree with you that it’s obviously early and nearly impossible to match Sabans success. We don’t know if he’s going to be magic Mike or the super rare example of a massive consistent success following someone like Saban

I brought this thread up NOT to call you out but just because prior to him going to Bama I was convinced he was an excellent coach. I only wanted to point out that despite all the insane pressure following Saban, major coaching/roster personnel losses, he has not only held it together but (i think) shown some improvements.

Finally I’ve been very vocal actually of him appearing overly Erickson-esque in his recruiting. While they have a great class so far this year on paper, I think it’s been overly neglectful of their home state (which is also loaded this year). The best players regardless of geography should be taken. But when you ignore the impact of both local culture AND talent in program building versus what Auburn is doing under Freeze (who has been awful on the field on offense this year) who is hording all the local 4/5 star studs you can eventually lose the backbone of the program. IMHO if he doesn’t try to rectify this philosophy starting next year, he could get closer to Magic Mike than what he is doing now. Or maybe he doesn’t care and like his last two HC jobs he will be out the door after season 2.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

So, @HughFreezemyCuckoldYesPlz , I won't quote your whole post, but I of all people can appreciate a well-written LONG discussion. LOVE IT!

I am mostly in agreement with your points, you bring up a fantastic issue with the loss of DBs (since Saban was known as a DB guru and DeBoer is more of an offense-side guy).

You raise some good points on Milroe as far as running vs. passing, and how the running skills are predominant. I do agree with you that Milroe has had a couple of games (and some key passes) where he has not looked good at all. As for passing ONLY, he is in roughly the upper quartile of passing ability/rating, so I wouldn't go so far as to say he "can barely throw". His accuracy is slightly better than last year and he is on a pace to get similar yardage and TD passes (including post-season) as to what he had last year.

Where it gets interesting is when I can (politely) steal a page from your argument. Before the season, I was pointing out that Milroe was losing almost all of his WR production from 2023, and while there was some VERY young talent in the WR room, we might expect something of a transition period, and that we should not expect the massive offensive production that DeBoer had at Washington (at least for Year 1 at Bama). So it does seem like Milroe is passing at about the same accuracy, yardage, and TD rate as he was last year, so that gives him two very solid years of production to make his case with the NFL scouts.

To compare AR-15 is tricky. During his one year starting at Florida, I consistently pointed out how Richardson would have either ONE OR TWO good passes per game, and one good run. And all of his other individual plays were pedestrian. This EXACT SAME pattern has played out in the NFL thus far. So, yes, maybe Milroe has some running characteristics in common with AR-15, but I think he is a far better and more consistent passer too.

I also agree with you on the loss of leadership on defense, particularly the DBs. What makes this a harder comparison is that DeBoer had IMMEDIATE success at Washington, jumping from 4 wins under Jimmy Lake to 11 wins in his first year. Thus, it would seem like DeBoer should know how to navigate a big transition year, even though he was not replacing "a Saban" at Washington.

Having said all of that, I am not just basing this on my own observations. One of my good friends from my NASCAR days is an Alabama alum and season ticketholder, and was classmates with Dabo. I've heard that there are some serious cultural shift questions, which may end up as dust in the wind once DeBoer gets a couple of classes of his own players.

That's all. DeBoer may prove to be a great head coach. I just want to see how things play out for a couple of years, given how briefly he was at Washington before jumping. Your Dennis Erickson comparison is a good one, prior to Miami he only had 2 years at a "Power 5" type school (Washington State) and a bunch of shorter crappier jobs (Montana State, Idaho, Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming). It was always hard to figure out what Erickson "built", and with Miami...things didn't look so hot a couple of years after he was gone.

Very fun debate. Alabama is a powerful brand, and DeBoer currently has a nice recent success story. I wonder if the recruiting momentum will continue if some other SEC teams (particularly Texas) start to suck some of the oxygen away from Alabama.