A few reasons.
1. Miami is home. And yes, I am well aware of the cliche, [insert place] this is home. Recently Arizona got a 5 star to stay home; Missouri just got a local guy to stay home. But that phrase "stay home" originated in South Florida. It's a spin-off from "the State of Miami", "recruit Broward, Dade, and Palm Beach". "put on for the crib".....they all mean the same thing, and they all started in Miami.
2. Top guys want to play with top guys. Look at our team. Project the next 2-3 years from our current roster: Mark Fletcher, Washington twins, Ray Ray, Wes, Bain, the two FR future-1st round O-lineman, Damari Brown, Naijalik Kelly, Riley Williams, Ajay Allen, Chris Johnson, Anez Cooper, Moten. AND THESE ARE THE GUYS WE HAVE SEEN. What about Malik Bryant, Jayden Wayne, Popo, Collins Archeampong, mcCoy, Kinsler, Arroyo, and Kaleb Spencer? How good are these guys? We don't know. And not to mention the guys who are stars that STILL HAVE ELIGIBILITY like TVD, Kam, James Williams, X, Colby, and Jacolby. I don't think we have actually considered the potential monster that Mario is building here. And add in the 2024 class potential of Trader, Chance, Riley, Zaquan, Artavius, Lightfoot, Lofton, and Rudolph. Top guys want to play with top guys. That's what helps them get to the league. JJ knows that. Again, Mario is *potentially* building a monster roster at Miami.
3. Shannon Dawson. Before the season, Mario was telling the top offensive recruits, just wait, just wait, and see what we put on the field. All we have heard from our sources (Cribby, D$, Pete, and others) is that these guys (i.e., top guys like JJ) want a reason to pick Miami. Shannon Dawson is that reason.
Miami offense this year in the top 25 of these categories: first downs, 3rd down %, completion %, passing offense, rushing offense, scoring offense, team passing efficiency, and total offense. Not to mention, just outside the top 25 on several other categories (they are tied for 30th with 6 other teams). The point is, the offense is there. No more excuses.
Anyway those are my reasons why I believe JJ will flip and pick Miami.