On your question, I lean to "Yes", and I'll explain.
One thing that Jeremiah Smith did NOT like about UM was Dennis Smith. And that issue didn't change in 2023 (i.e., we didn't replace Dennis until 2024/2025). So Jeremiah would have needed to overcome that issue to pick UM.
As for Cam, let's roll the tape back. The Portal opened on December 9, 2023. Will Howard visited on December 11. Cam Ward visited on December 12. National Signing Day(s) started on December 20, but Jeremiah signed a blank piece of paper, and did not actually sign with Taint until December 21. Will Howard did not commit to Taint until January 4.
So if you look at the timeline, I believe that the combination of "Miami picked Cam over Will Howard, Miami thinks Cam is superior" and a commitment by Cam AND the lack of a Taint commitment from Will Howard until January...may have provided enough confidence and incentive for Jeremiah to choose Miami, in spite of the family not liking Dennis Smith.
As for Taint's counter-offer, they upped the money significantly on the night before Signing Day, and "promised" to eventually put it in writing, but "failed" to do so by Signing Day. Which is why Jeremiah signed the blank sheet of paper during his ceremony. That set off a scramble on Miami's side, who definitely were willing to put the offer in writing. I would assume we increased the offer, but I cannot confirm by how much, I have no idea if we matched Taint's $$$ offer to the penny. ****, we should have offered double what Taint offered. I just don't know about how much more Miami may have offered on December 20.
And I think that IF we had Cam committed at that point, and with the silly games that Taint played, I think we had a very good shot at the late flip. We may never know for sure, and I know that some of the "we never had a shot" mopers will be adamant that we never had a shot.
If you read between the lines about some of the things I was saying about Dennis Smith back in December 2024, you would be able to figure out that Dennis liked to yell at recruits when the NIL figure went up. Cost us two recruits and almost a third in the most recent cycle. So I can only imagine that Jeremiah might have been treated similarly, no matter what his talent level is. Unfortunate, for sure.
