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Interesting stat on quality wins

MiamisMoperiestMopes said:
2 of those wins are seen as questionable and we did what everyone said we’d do. Our D collapsed as usual and the O couldn’t save us. That’s the national narrative at least. We’ll see what the committee says.
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Which wins were questionable?

And I mean objectively, not flight of fancy reddit conspiracy theories.
 

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Damiencane86 said:
The ACC as a whole is a massive collection of decent to above average squads. Only Clemson 2015-2020 was elite. The current data definitely reflects we are beating mostly decent teams at best with a few being arguably quality wins, but our inability to create separation from the average at best teams is where we lack.
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Last year's D with this year's O would have had us winning against most of the teams on our schedule by 3 scores.

It's baffling how badly the D has cratered this season. I do wonder if Mario fires Guidry because that massive step down in quality is probably going to cost us an ACC Championship and a decent shot at the National Title.
 
90scane said:
Big questions:
Does an 11-2 or 10-2 Miami team get left out of the cfp?
Does a 10-2 Clemson get in over Miami or SMU with a similar 2 loss record?
Does a 3 loss SEC team get in over a 2 loss ACC team?
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You can't answer any of these definitively at this point in a season, but I think the committee did leave you some bread crumbs.

Your first question, let's get this straight right now, a 10-2 Miami is OUT. That would mean we lose to either Wake or Cuse and do not make Charlotte. That is 100.0% not making the playoff.
2nd part to that question, does an 11-2 Miami get left out? That would be right down to the wire, IMO. Does SMU win out, and we go to Charlotte and lose by 3? It'd be close. I think in that scenario, we're anywhere from 10th to 15th. So either barely in, or barely out.

Does a 10-2 Clemson team get in over Miami or SMU? Not if they don't go to Charlotte, which at 10-2, they would not. The ACC is getting, at absolute most, 2 teams in. The ACC Champion, obviously. And then MAYBE the team that loses in Charlotte. See my paragraph above. Nobody else is getting in.

Does a 3 loss SEC team get in over a 2 loss ACC team? Without a shadow of a doubt.
 
If the CFP Committee thinks we still are the favorites to win the ACC, it will be reflected in the Tuesday release. We may be "ranked" 10 or 11, but if we are still ranked ahead of SMU we will be placed in the #4 spot as the supposed ACC champ.

Win out and all the rest is irrelevant.
 
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FWIW, right now at Draftkings, Miami is -190 to make the playoff.

SMU is +120

Clemson is +250

No other team is better than 20/1 (Louisville).

So Miami is still favored to make the playoff. SMU is basically a coinflip. And Clemson is a pretty decent dog. This is all centered around the fact that Clemson needs help to make it to Charlotte, and no ACC team missing on Charlotte is making the playoff. This is, at best, a 2 bid league. And very easily could be only 1.

I think what the people in control would *LIKE* to happen would be:

1 ACC
1 Big 12
1 Go5
1 Notre Dame
4 SEC
4 B1G
 
OldhamA said:
Which wins were questionable?

And I mean objectively, not flight of fancy reddit conspiracy theories.
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You know exactly which ones. And it’s not a stretch to think that the either call could have been changed. We were fortunate to get both. Because of those and our penchant for toying with our food as one broadcaster said, our margins were already razor thin.

OrangeBowlMagic said:
FWIW, right now at Draftkings, Miami is -190 to make the playoff.

SMU is +120

Clemson is +250

No other team is better than 20/1 (Louisville).

So Miami is still favored to make the playoff. SMU is basically a coinflip. And Clemson is a pretty decent dog. This is all centered around the fact that Clemson needs help to make it to Charlotte, and no ACC team missing on Charlotte is making the playoff. This is, at best, a 2 bid league. And very easily could be only 1.

I think what the people in control would *LIKE* to happen would be:

1 ACC
1 Big 12
1 Go5
1 Notre Dame
4 SEC
4 B1G
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Will be interesting to see how or IF those odds change after the next CFP update tomorrow.
 
DMoney said:
I know there are a lot of believers in the SP Plus metric on here. We haven’t played any really good teams but we’ve beaten a bunch of pretty good ones:

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Our schedule is trash. Trying to grasp at straws just looks and feels the pathetic kind of desperate.
 
It doesn’t matter to me if we win out and make it to the acc game.
What we’ve seen by the defense in the last few games isn’t an optical illusion.
It’s just plain bad. Going 11-1 is great and a good spot to be in.
But the defense is cheeks and if Duke and Gt can score over 30, then what can Oregon, Ohio state or Texas do to us?
 
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canesd said:
We have given the committee plenty to use if they want us in....but we all know that they will not do us any favors.
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The committee is not going to come into play for us. We either win out and we're an auto-bid with a bye or we lose another game and we have no chance as a 2 loss team.
 
mcnaire2004 said:
Our schedule is trash. Trying to grasp at straws just looks and feels the pathetic kind of desperate.
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Except, it's not, only to the people on this site who do anything in their power to disparage Miami at the first sign of advertisty.

The committee, who is kind of the important voice here, told you what they thought about Miami's schedule last week, when they ranked them 4th. They ranked undefeated BYU and Indiana much lower. So yes, if you only frequent this board and allow the biggest haters of Miami football to influence you, the schedule is total **** and Miami hasn't played a single team better than St. Thomas. If you listen to the people who actually rank the teams, it's good enough to have a 9-0 Miami team in the Top 4.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
FWIW, right now at Draftkings, Miami is -190 to make the playoff.

SMU is +120

Clemson is +250

No other team is better than 20/1 (Louisville).

So Miami is still favored to make the playoff. SMU is basically a coinflip. And Clemson is a pretty decent dog. This is all centered around the fact that Clemson needs help to make it to Charlotte, and no ACC team missing on Charlotte is making the playoff. This is, at best, a 2 bid league. And very easily could be only 1.

I think what the people in control would *LIKE* to happen would be:

1 ACC
1 Big 12
1 Go5
1 Notre Dame
4 SEC
4 B1G
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1 ACC
1 Big 12
1 G5
1 Notre Dame

then it’ll be 5 SEC and 3 Big 10 or 4 SEC and 4 Big 10

That’s already a given
 
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[]_[] swag said:
The committee is not going to come into play for us. We either win out and we're an auto-bid with a bye or we lose another game and we have no chance as a 2 loss team.
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Generally agree, although I don’t think saying “no chance as a 2 loss team” is 100% accurate. We absolutely need to win our last two conference games, of course. If we lay a **** against WF or Syracuse we won’t go to Charlotte and have zero chance at the playoff. Personally I think the team needs to adopt a playoff approach for each game from here on out - survive and advance.

Provided we handle business and are in the ACCCG against SMU, though, I don’t think it’s necessarily a “must-win” scenario. We are nearing the end already, but there is still a ton of football to be played. Georgia plays Tennessee this weekend, for example. Georgia loses, they’re toast. Tennessee loses - who knows where they land. Texas still has to play aTm. IU / OSU, etc etc etc. Penn State at Minnesota could be a tricky matchup. We will still see a lot of movement.

Still. We need a survive and advance mentality. Every game is a playoff game from here on out.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
Isn’t that literally exactly what I wrote?
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No, 4 and 4 is what you said

Depends on what they do with Indiana, a close loss to Ohio State, how far do they drop with their weak SOS

SEC could have 6 - 2 loss teams when it’s all said and done

ACC is guaranteed to only get 1 team in the playoffs
 
CANESCANES said:
No, 4 and 4 is what you said
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Oh ok. I said what I think they want is 4 and 4. The B1G doesn’t want 5 SEC. The SEC doesn’t want 5 B1G. But yes it could be 5/3 either way. My point was, if all the guys who control the money had their way, it’d be 4 and 4 and the other 4 spots only to the leagues who get 1 auto bid plus Notre Dame.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Oh ok. I said what I think they want is 4 and 4. The B1G doesn’t want 5 SEC. The SEC doesn’t want 5 B1G. But yes it could be 5/3 either way. My point was, if all the guys who control the money had their way, it’d be 4 and 4 and the other 4 spots only to the leagues who get 1 auto bid plus Notre Dame.
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Oh yes I agree with that. And I believe they would love to expand it to 16 teams to get even more of their teams in it

You saw where they want to start scheduling each other in the future right? So they will have the magic formula where they all beat up on each other and don’t budge in the rankings
 
CANESCANES said:
Oh yes I agree with that. And I believe they would love to expand it to 16 teams to get even more of their teams in it

You saw where they want to start scheduling each other in the future right? So they will have the magic formula where they all beat up on each other and don’t budge in the rankings
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Also I can’t wait to see what ****ed off SEC fan base gets left out if they only get 4 teams if they all finish with 2 losses

Tennessee could be the team left out when it’s all said and done or will it be Alabama or Ole Miss?
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I disagree, to an extent. What the committee does/thinks is all that matters. What fsu fans on twitter think or what Joel Klatt thinks matters zero. The committee put us at 4 last week. I don’t care how many people disagree or think the teams we play are ****. The committee showed you last week how they're going to vote/rank.

However, I do think it LIKELY doesn't matter. Many things can happen the next month, but I think an 11-1 Miami LOSING to SMU in the ACCCG, probably misses out. It'd be really close, we'd be somewhere between 11-14. But let's not give them the chance to ***** us, mmkay?
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That's all fair.
 
the issue is the way we lost, if it would have been 45-44 that keeps it in the defense. the fact the offense only put up 23 makes it seem like we can't beat anyone, which hurts.
 
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