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in light of his draft ascension ...

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He needs to go to a team where he can legitimately be a TE1.

TE2's barely get any targets & going somewhere where there's already an established TE1 would just start him off on the wrong foot coming into his rookie season.

Kelce, Kittle & dudes like that are not retiring anytime soon, if he goes to be a TE2 behind those types he'll hardly ever play.
 
JHallCanes said:
Up 21-7 and then Jordan Lyle takes over for Damien Martinez who was unstoppable at the time and we can’t even get a first down

Can’t imagine how Dawson had all these 2nd quarter struggles when we kept taking one of our best players off the field because he had 5 carries
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True but that loss is on the D and Guidry
 
Damiencane86 said:
Riddick & Tannenbaum were praising Arroyo BIGLY this AM. As long as he doesn't completely botch combine & pro day he's going no lower than mid 2nd. Riddick also praised Restrepo quite a bit too.
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Just leave tannenbaum out of your statement and it holds more weight
 
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So glad he had a full healthy year to show what he can do.

At this point, his health is the only concern teams should have about him. We'll see how much that hurts him because without that concern he's a first rounder.
 
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Memnon said:
He needs to go to a team where he can legitimately be a TE1.

TE2's barely get any targets & going somewhere where there's already an established TE1 would just start him off on the wrong foot coming into his rookie season.

Kelce, Kittle & dudes like that are not retiring anytime soon, if he goes to be a TE2 behind those types he'll hardly ever play.
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Don't disagree, but if he were drafted to a team that has a avg starter quality player, 12 and 22 personnel are used league avg 24% of the time. So no sure he'd hardly play. Especially given he's going to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder regardless. Teams will do what they can to get him on field.

Chiefs run 12 34% of the time. Andy Reid would be able to use Arroyo no problem imo. Especially since the Chiefs very much are implementing their idc about the regular season strategy. They could rest Kelce quite a bit until playoffs. He may not retire for a couple years, but he's old and not producing as much in the regulars season. I think Chiefs taking him would absolutely make sense.

49ers, yeah they only run both <12% of the time. And Kittle is still young and elite.

Other teams that run 2 TEs > 30% of the time are:
- Raiders, but have Bowers and Mayer so no.
- Lions
- Texans, run 12 31% of the time. Could make sense, Shultz is set to make top 3/4 money next year and they have an out in his contract.
- Ravens, who run 2 TE 43% of the time! ... but have Andrews and Likely so no.
- Patriots, and imo Arroyo would immediatley start over Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. So this would absolutely make sense as a landing spot.
- Saints, and like Pats, Arroyo would start over Foster Moreau and Juwon Johnson imo, Taysom Hill is going to be used throughout though.
- Then you got like Eagles, Cardinals, Bengals, Jags, Steelers, and Colts.... out of those Eagles and Colts make sense to me
 
Calinative said:
Don't disagree, but if he were drafted to a team that has a avg starter quality player, 12 and 22 personnel are used league avg 24% of the time. So no sure he'd hardly play. Especially given he's going to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder regardless. Teams will do what they can to get him on field.

Chiefs run 12 34% of the time. Andy Reid would be able to use Arroyo no problem imo. Especially since the Chiefs very much are implementing their idc about the regular season strategy. They could rest Kelce quite a bit until playoffs. He may not retire for a couple years, but he's old and not producing as much in the regulars season. I think Chiefs taking him would absolutely make sense.

49ers, yeah they only run both <12% of the time. And Kittle is still young and elite.

Other teams that run 2 TEs > 30% of the time are:
- Raiders, but have Bowers and Mayer so no.
- Lions
- Texans, run 12 31% of the time. Could make sense, Shultz is set to make top 3/4 money next year and they have an out in his contract.
- Ravens, who run 2 TE 43% of the time! ... but have Andrews and Likely so no.
- Patriots, and imo Arroyo would immediatley start over Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. So this would absolutely make sense as a landing spot.
- Saints, and like Pats, Arroyo would start over Foster Moreau and Juwon Johnson imo, Taysom Hill is going to be used throughout though.
- Then you got like Eagles, Cardinals, Bengals, Jags, Steelers, and Colts.... out of those Eagles and Colts make sense to me
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If he went to the Chiefs he'd be TE3 waiting for Kelce to retire.

Noah Gray is their TE2 & he was 4th in their target share this season with just under 50. How many targets is a TE3 gonna get, when the overwhelming majority of the target share goes to Kelce 1st, then Worthy & once Rashee Rice comes back from injury he'll get his share as well.

The TE2 for the Niners got 14 targets this season. It doesn't matter how often they run 12 personnel, they almost quite literally never throw it to the TE2. They run 2 TE's for Blocking in their Run game.

Kittle is 31 & in the prime of his career, he's not going anywhere anytime soon at all.

The targets in the Niners Offense goes to Jauan Jennins, Kittle, CMac (when he's healthy), Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk & Kyle Juszczyk. Being a TE2 for the Niners would be a waste of your rookie contract.

The Texans have Dalton Schultz already under contract & have a largely perimeter based Vertical passing attack. The TE2 is not getting the ball in that Offense, just ask Brevin Jordan.

The best fit for Arroyo is to go somewhere where he'll get the ball regularly. Just because a team runs 12 & 22 personnel doesn't mean they're throwing it to the TE2 often. In most cases, it's simply for running the ball.

The reason why target share matters more in the NFL than in college is because in the league, guys have incentive based contracts & have opportunities to make several hundred thousand - millions of dollars if they hit certain markers for their stats.

So it's not just as simple as, if you're open you get the ball. There's a pecking order in most NFL Offenses.
 
Memnon said:
If he went to the Chiefs he'd be TE3 waiting for Kelce to retire.

Noah Gray is their TE2 & he was 4th in their target share this season with just under 50. How many targets is a TE3 gonna get, when the overwhelming majority of the target share goes to Kelce 1st, then Worthy & once Rashee Rice comes back from injury he'll get his share as well.

The TE2 for the Niners got 14 targets this season. It doesn't matter how often they run 12 personnel, they almost quite literally never throw it to the TE2. They run 2 TE's for Blocking in their Run game.

Kittle is 31 & in the prime of his career, he's not going anywhere anytime soon at all.

The targets in the Niners Offense goes to Jauan Jennins, Kittle, CMac (when he's healthy), Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk & Kyle Juszczyk. Being a TE2 for the Niners would be a waste of your rookie contract.

The Texans have Dalton Schultz already under contract & have a largely perimeter based Vertical passing attack. The TE2 is not getting the ball in that Offense, just ask Brevin Jordan.

The best fit for Arroyo is to go somewhere where he'll get the ball regularly. Just because a team runs 12 & 22 personnel doesn't mean they're throwing it to the TE2 often. In most cases, it's simply for running the ball.

The reason why target share matters more in the NFL than in college is because in the league, guys have incentive based contracts & have opportunities to make several hundred thousand - millions of dollars if they hit certain markers for their stats.

So it's not just as simple as, if you're open you get the ball. There's a pecking order in most NFL Offenses.
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Arroyo would 100% start over Noah Gray. It's simply a fact though to state IF the Chiefs drafted him given what round it must occur, that it would obviously be with the intention of him being at least a TE2 and he had Mahomes and Reid which significantly helps. The idea that they'd draft him in 2nd or 3rd and he'd be no more than a TE3 is ridiculous. And stating Grays stats is actually just evidence of why Arroyo would be a valuable draft addition. And we know the higher you are drafted it significantly increased is teams will give endless opportunities to produce...

I already agreed on the 49ers point.

Texans I specifically pointed to Shultzs contract being voidable next year and how he is going to make top 4 money even though his production isn't close to being worth that. TE is a position that they can absolutely upgrade at. Will they idk. Also they fired Slowik, so we will see how much Lazor changes.

Your point about target share and incentive based contacts is almost entirely irrelevant to a TE on a rookie contact though. After his rookie contract, sure. Until that is up the only big contractual escalator is if he gets pro bowls or all pros which could increases his 4th yr salary by a lot, however given the production of Bowers, McBride, Kittle, LaPorta, etc, is not very likely anyway... like I don't even think LaPorta or Bowers had any real impactful incentives other than the PPE they will receive in yr 4 for making all-pro+pro bowl.. if your using that argument to say others will have priority over him, is just say that draft status is also a pecking order and teams absolutely want to get production out of top 3 round picks.


Obviously his BEST fit is somewhere he will start asap lol. I'm just pointing out some scenarios where it would still be a good situation even if he wasnt 100% starting.
 
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As a Pat's fan I would love to get Arroyo in the fold with an early second to give Maye another weapon. Be able to run those 2 TE sets McDaniels ran with Gronk and Hernandez with him and Henry.

Arroyo is probably hoping to go to somewhere like WAS, CIN, PHI, LAC, or NO.

WAS with Daniels and an aging Ertz with no real sure fire "next up" at TE would be appealing I am sure.
CIN has Gesicki whos better than average, but I think Arroyo could take them to a new level offensively, and there could be a ton of targets getting ready to open up if Higgins leaves/is traded.
PHI has Goedert but he's 30 and has only played 16 games once in his career. Arroyo would fit their scheme very well IMO.
LAC have Will Dissly who is a JAG and I would think Arroyo would have a good shot to unseat his rookie year. Good scheme for Arroyo as well.
NO has Johnson and he is still young enough to where he may continue to get better but I think Arroyo would be a great fit and is possibly a better weapon in the passing game as well.
 
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